does the math matter?

[notes1]

for years i have read countless posts that over the long term, the math of playing VP is inescapable. accuracy, paytables and other cash/gift benefits are the ultimate deciding factor in whether one wins or losses money. luck is only a short term factor, it's overall effect diminishes over time. posters have been derided for stating anything else.

we have a multi decade player who states he is net positive from vp play while playing negative games. this includes the last 5-7 years, with reduced paytables and comps/cash back. he credits his success to honing his skills, money management discipline, luck and karma, among other factors. note, playing positive games was not included in his success.

this stands in the face of all the assertions of our many resident 'math experts'. how can this be?

[Tedlark]

Notes, I would appreciate it if you left me out of your posts given the manner such as you brought me into this one.

You simply could have asked me in the other forum how much of my play has been on positive games and I would have given you a rundown of my play in Las Vegas going back to 2006.

The math does matter to me and as I had previously written, I am up over the last 5-7 year period but as I also wrote: I have been playing for about 30 years. Subtract 7 from 30 and you get 23. Those 23 years were not very kind to me with regard to video poker.

[notes1]

tedlark, i never questioned your results, nor did i question your explanation for beating the casino. as you have done in the past, you posted about positive results you recently experienced. and, my memory was that you did not limit your play to positive games, along with you playing games with high volatility. these were your assertions, not mine.

it seemed like a good example for the math experts to explain how this was possible, after they have assured us, that it was not. unless, their stated position is that a lucky streak can last 5-7 years.

i am looking forward to the 'experts' offering an explanation.

[billryan]

The answer is pretty obvious, even if left unsaid.
As former Congressman Jonah Ryan repeAtedly warns- can we really trust math that originated in the heart of Islambia. When you look at the situation using Christian numbers, they look much better.

[seemoreroyals]

Math matters but not as much as good luck does. Casinos are built on math. Gamblers good fortune is dependent on good fortune. Drawing a royal or hitting a one, two, three, or four to a royal is based on luck. As is filling in a 4OAK. Without your fair share of royals and 4OAK's you are not going to come out ahead as a gambler in the casino and the casinos know this. The math will help keep you in the game and extend your opportunities and get you a few more shots at that elusive royal or 4OAK.

[FloridaPhil]

Math matters but not as much as good luck does. Casinos are built on math. Gamblers good fortune is dependent on good fortune. Drawing a royal or hitting a one, two, three, or four to a royal is based on luck. As is filling in a 4OAK. Without your fair share of royals and 4OAK's you are not going to come out ahead as a gambler in the casino and the casinos know this. The math will help keep you in the game and extend your opportunities and get you a few more shots at that elusive royal or 4OAK.

Perfect.

[Jstark]

Luck doesn't exist.

[Eduardo]

Luck doesn't exist.

I think you are just viewing the word "luck" differently than some others here. Luck in the sense of a lucky rabbit's foot that actually brings good fortune may not exist.

But if a million people play the lottery, most people would consider the individual winner the "lucky" one.

When I talk about luck in the casino, it simply means being on the favorable side of the odds. You had a 1 in 15 chance of winning, and you won. That's "lucky" as I use the word. It's not some metaphysical occurrence where I believe fate stepped in. It was just me there at the right time.

Looking up the definition of luck, I get: Success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.

I'd say that not only exists, it describes every game in a casino.

[notes1]

a couple of folks that often espouse the importance of the math have bravely weighed in. BR's first sentence seems to reflect his position. eduardo appears to suggest that luck can play a more important role. my question is, how long can luck last...7 years or more? and,is luck more important than skill in playing VP? i wonder what they folks who specialize in applied mathematics feel about this.

but, we have many others posters who have never been shy about stating the importance of the math and will deride those who post otherwise. where is your response?

[Eduardo]

A poster named Gronbog has talked about that pretty extensively before.

My simple answer is... the more you play, the less luck becomes a factor. And it doesn't take as much play as some people seem to think.

When I say luck is a big factor, I'm talking about on one hand, not your overall play.

For a dumbed down answer... say there were a million lotto number combinations in a game.

You buy one ticket and win, you are incredibly lucky. Buy 500,000 tickets and people will think it's less "lucky" given the 50/50 shot.

Buy 950,000 tickets and you really should win. But you might get "unlucky" and lose.

Buy all the numbers, luck is no longer a factor at all.

At a certain point, when you play video poker enough you are going to be close to the mathematical value based on what game you are playing and how well you play it. You might get "lucky" wins along the way. But as Jstark implies... you aren't really dealing with "luck" any more at all when you talk about long term results. You've bought all the tickets and just cashing in for what they were worth.

The value of that play will vary based on pay table and skill... and practically no luck at all.