Why do I keep losing?

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
BobDancer
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Re: Why do I keep losing?

Post by BobDancer »

FAA wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:18 am
Butting heads up against table games? I agree. Table games are basically donation central, unless you are a savant or prodigy.

I marvel at our suspended member who came out about even after a single eight hour VP day. I'm usually thrilled to walk away even after one hundred minutes of dread.
First, table games are often games of skill --- many of which are countable. Knowing how to do this does not make you a savant or prodigy --- but it does make you more knowledgeable that the average player.


On the second point, notice how the discussion went from "one session" to "usually." Any player who has played many times, if they focus on one particular session will have some of them that are extremely good, others are extremely bad, others are so so. Just saying that on July 8 (or any other day), I played for xxxx hours and had such and such a result is meaningless. Someone who loses many many thousands of dollars a year will have a few winning days. Players who win year after year have a LOT of losing days of losing days (even months, occasionally years).

When someone tells you of a particular session, don't assume all of their sessions are like that. We see lots of pictures posted on this site where somebody got a royal flush or AWAK or whatever on a machine with a particularly dreadful pay schedule. Despite whatever you see from the posted pictures, people who play on such machines are financially big-time losers.

Jstark
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Post by Jstark »

BobDancer wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:19 am
FAA wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:18 am
Butting heads up against table games? I agree. Table games are basically donation central, unless you are a savant or prodigy.

I marvel at our suspended member who came out about even after a single eight hour VP day. I'm usually thrilled to walk away even after one hundred minutes of dread.
First, table games are often games of skill --- many of which are countable. Knowing how to do this does not make you a savant or prodigy --- but it does make you more knowledgeable that the average player.


On the second point, notice how the discussion went from "one session" to "usually." Any player who has played many times, if they focus on one particular session will have some of them that are extremely good, others are extremely bad, others are so so. Just saying that on July 8 (or any other day), I played for xxxx hours and had such and such a result is meaningless. Someone who loses many many thousands of dollars a year will have a few winning days. Players who win year after year have a LOT of losing days of losing days (even months, occasionally years).

When someone tells you of a particular session, don't assume all of their sessions are like that. We see lots of pictures posted on this site where somebody got a royal flush or AWAK or whatever on a machine with a particularly dreadful pay schedule. Despite whatever you see from the posted pictures, people who play on such machines are financially big-time losers.
I can certainly disagree with this statement.

I may have some play on a couple of crappy pay tables, but I can assure you, I make many many multiples over on the "good" plays. Many of which are not machine game oriented.

BobDancer
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Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:07 am

Post by BobDancer »

Jstark wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:50 pm

I may have some play on a couple of crappy pay tables, but I can assure you, I make many many multiples over on the "good" plays. Many of which are not machine game oriented.
I have no grounds to dispute what Jstark says for his own situation. There are lots of things in life that can generate more big money than making bad plays on video poker can lose.

I was referring to being a financial loser at video poker. I can see how what I said was open to other interpretations as well.

stevel96a1
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Post by stevel96a1 »

FAA wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:18 am
no one should survive 30 days 8 hour per day and still be even or ahead bucking heads up against the table games
I have no idea what you mean. Butting heads up against table games? I agree. Table games are basically donation central, unless you are a savant or prodigy. I marvel at our suspended member who came out about even after a single eight hour VP day. I'm usually thrilled to walk away even after one hundred minutes of dread.
i just meant someone who walts up to the table games with a wad of cash say a 1,000$ and starts playing until they lose all or meet their quota and if they lose they don't feel it

Bstillmatic
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Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 10:21 pm

Post by Bstillmatic »

I've played 2,815,282 hands of fpdw and I play perfect .76 strategy. I'm currently on a -$12,710 downswing and only have made a profit of $83. I'm 52.4 deuces below expectation and 6.1 royals below. According to Bob Dancer I'm one of those super unlucky vp players that does everything right and I still cant win! This only happens to 1/10000 people... :(

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

You aren’t the only one. 25 million hands and only have kanded about half of the Royals I should have. Quad deuces about where they should be maybe even a bit better, but nothing can make up for the missed Royals

case
VP Veteran
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Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:37 am

Post by case »

Bstillmatic wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:07 pm
I've played 2,815,282 hands of fpdw and I play perfect .76 strategy. I'm currently on a -$12,710 downswing and only have made a profit of $83. I'm 52.4 deuces below expectation and 6.1 royals below. According to Bob Dancer I'm one of those super unlucky vp players that does everything right and I still cant win! This only happens to 1/10000 people... :(
Wait a minute. Am I reading this right or did I misunderstand you.

You are 52 deuces below expectation AND 6.1 royals below expectations AND you are still ahead 83 dollars?

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Sounds nearly impossible unless there were tons of wild royals and 5 of a kinds. In my case, assuming I only played a quarter game at bet 5, I would be down about 312 Royals or 312,000 bucks. Unfortunately, many of the games were dollar games or quarter games with many more than 5 quarters bet, so the true lifetime loss is over 1,000,000 bucks. My real average bet over time is more like 2 bucks. That means 50,000,000 coin in with about a 2.5 percent loss we get. 1,250,000 lifetime loss. That’s just about right and it also shows the damage that can be done to bankroll being under Royaled. Along the way, there were a few dealt Royals on DDS for 5k and one for 18k long with one massive 18k hit on bonus deuces wild without a royal for 18k, but the total loss is still about right

olds442jetaway
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Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm

Post by olds442jetaway »

Just a quick side note, for those who don’t have access to nearly full pay games. Many casinos hover between 96 abd 98 percent vp paytables. If you had 50,000,000 lifetime coin like me, and were Royaled in the correct amounts, the lifetime loss would still be in the range of mine at 1,250,000 bucks. It just shows the importance of playing the best games you can find with the best paytables and playing with nearly perfect strategy.

Vman96
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Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2011 12:49 am

Post by Vman96 »

case wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:56 pm
Bstillmatic wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:07 pm
I've played 2,815,282 hands of fpdw and I play perfect .76 strategy. I'm currently on a -$12,710 downswing and only have made a profit of $83. I'm 52.4 deuces below expectation and 6.1 royals below. According to Bob Dancer I'm one of those super unlucky vp players that does everything right and I still cant win! This only happens to 1/10000 people... :(
Wait a minute. Am I reading this right or did I misunderstand you.

You are 52 deuces below expectation AND 6.1 royals below expectations AND you are still ahead 83 dollars?
With the volume he's put in, he still could be ahead even that far in the hole with Royals/ Deuces.

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