Another flaw exploited

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wildman49
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Another flaw exploited

Post by wildman49 »

We have these rolling pots on Fridays where I play. Three of the 4 tier cards have there own pot to win. In my case the pot starts at 2k and must hit by 5k. The time frame from 2k to hit is about 3 hours give or take.

Well 2 Fridays ago my wife and I are playing side by side trying to win a pot. I was under the impression it pays at random. A regular I know stops and chats a bit, he says a guy by name (I don't know him) won 3 of the pots all ready playing 100 play nickels. These pots go above 4k, that's 12k plus total and I did not know one could win more then one a day.

I have hit one of these pots for $4461 a few months back. At the time I was playing 5 bucks a hand. So this past Friday after the first pot was won I walked over to the 100 play machines and sure enough a guy hit it on 100 play. This guy I have seen before, I am sure its the guy that won 3 the week before but not 100% sure.

I start thinking there is noway in hell this guy is just hitting these pots at random. What do you all think?

The second pot is rolling it's at $3500, I sit down at the 100 play machine. When it hits $3800 the guy sits down 3 machines from me. He is playing 2 hands of the 100. When the pot hits 4k he hits max bet, playing all 100 hands. $25 a pull. The pot goes at $4065. I have never seen it go less then $4400. I was surprised. He did not hit it.

Something is telling me these pots are not random and there is something like someone that feeds the pot the most from the 2k start hits it. Or BIG volume might set it off.

Wondering what you all might think? I am off this Friday looking to take one or two of these pots down!

pokerpokerpoker
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Post by pokerpokerpoker »

I don't think anything is amiss.

There might be a predetermined coin-in trigger amount that awards the jackpot. Maybe something like $1,503,756.89 and whichever player is the one who's bet crosses that amount wins the jackpot. By playing $25 bucks a whack, the guy is 5 times more likely to hit it than someone playing $5 or 100 times more likely than somone playing a quarter. He's probably seen enough of them fall to know a typical range in which to really go for it.

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

Interesting observation WM. I have hit it twice playing single line JOB. Both above $4300.
My thought was that each diamond player with card in at the time it hit had equal chance.
Now not so sure.
Would make sense to select someone most likely to give it back.

Good luck today!

BobDancer
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Post by BobDancer »

tech58 wrote:
Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:43 am

Would make sense to select someone most likely to give it back.
Maybe. But likely illegal in most or all jurisdictions. Generally, the drawings are fair and as PPP explained, all players have a chance but bigger players have a bigger chance.

To figure out whether it makes sense to "go for it," you need to have pretty good records. Remember, you're losing while you're playing and often big players are losing more. Playing $25 a hand on a bad pay schedule can easily be costing $1,000 or more per hour. Yes a $4,400 jackpot is nice, but how long did you play and at what price? And for many people, the W2G comes with unwanted tax consequences.

The player who waits until this jackpot is at $4,300 to start going for it is attempting to play it intelligently. At this casino (I don't know where it is), apparently it rarely goes off below that. Other players will notice such a trend, and there will likely be many more dollars being played when the jackpot is high than when it is low. So yes, waiting until it reaches a certain level makes it more likely you'll be playing when it goes off, but less likely to be the one who connected.

The fact that one player has had numerous successes may or may not be significant. If this player is playing every day for bigger stakes than others, it's no wonder that he wins more than his share. The fact that SOMEBODY has won more than average in the past is no guarantee that this same person will win more than average in the future.

You just don't know without further research whether the success was simply volume of play at big stakes or just plain luck. If it's volume of play at big stakes, likely the player will win again (probably at a significant price along the way). If it's just luck, likely the player will not be so lucky in the future.

There are players who get such a big kick out of winning a drawing that they ignore the cost along the way.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

And winning long term is really just giving one most of their money back not counting other promos like free rooms, gifts, shows , etc. etc. The exception would be the really big progressive jackpots. The biggest one I ever saw hit was 2.3 million. I have posted before on that one and it wasn’t on video poker.

Eduardo
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Post by Eduardo »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:16 pm
And winning long term is really just giving one most of their money back not counting other promos like free rooms, gifts, shows , etc. etc.
This is true... nobody wins without also losing a lot along the way. But the key word in your statement above is "most."

The difference between long term winning and long term losing is whether the winning or the losing is the bigger portion.

I think we can all say we'd love to win more than we lose. It's important to understand the odds of that actually happening based on how you play the game. Some people see that from a long term perspective. If so, you really need to be studying and applying advantage play principles.

Some people just want to have some winning days. You can do that in any game, with no skill at all. But completely ignoring strategy and pay tables would be a costly mistake no matter what you are after.

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

BobDancer wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:40 am
tech58 wrote:
Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:43 am

Would make sense to select someone most likely to give it back.
Maybe. But likely illegal in most or all jurisdictions. Generally, the drawings are fair and as PPP explained, all players have a chance but bigger players have a bigger chance.

To figure out whether it makes sense to "go for it," you need to have pretty good records. Remember, you're losing while you're playing and often big players are losing more. Playing $25 a hand on a bad pay schedule can easily be costing $1,000 or more per hour. Yes a $4,400 jackpot is nice, but how long did you play and at what price? And for many people, the W2G comes with unwanted tax consequences.

The player who waits until this jackpot is at $4,300 to start going for it is attempting to play it intelligently. At this casino (I don't know where it is), apparently it rarely goes off below that. Other players will notice such a trend, and there will likely be many more dollars being played when the jackpot is high than when it is low. So yes, waiting until it reaches a certain level makes it more likely you'll be playing when it goes off, but less likely to be the one who connected.

The fact that one player has had numerous successes may or may not be significant. If this player is playing every day for bigger stakes than others, it's no wonder that he wins more than his share. The fact that SOMEBODY has won more than average in the past is no guarantee that this same person will win more than average in the future.

You just don't know without further research whether the success was simply volume of play at big stakes or just plain luck. If it's volume of play at big stakes, likely the player will win again (probably at a significant price along the way). If it's just luck, likely the player will not be so lucky in the future.

There are players who get such a big kick out of winning a drawing that they ignore the cost along the way.
The casino is an Indian casino in MI and they have no compact with the state because the state violated their original pact.
With only Indian Affairs regulation, which means nothing , they can do as they please.(as best i can determine)
If they pick winners whose to stop them,this in not Vegas!!

Tedlark
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Post by Tedlark »

tech58 can you please expand on your remark about the State of Michigan violating a gaming compact with an Indian Nation? Are you describing Bay Mills?

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

Tedlark wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:38 pm
tech58 can you please expand on your remark about the State of Michigan violating a gaming compact with an Indian Nation? Are you describing Bay Mills?
The casino reffered to is Soaring Eagle.
It is my understanding that when they opened,under a pact with the State Of Michigan,the agreement involved revenue sharing but also stipulated that no "regular casinos" be allowed in the state.
The voters of Michigan approved casinos and three were liscenced in Detroit.
Sometime thereafter SE voided the pact based on this "violation".
They explicitly state in a plaque on the wall that they "ARE NOT REGULATED BY THE STATE OF MICHIGAN"(there caps. BTW).
I have only a newspaper article and a conversation with a host at the casino to base this understanding on.
Shakey evidence to be sure and i welcome any corrective info.
BTW others have stated that Indian casinos must have a pact with the state to offer Class III machines which is all they have there so it might be called a murky situation.
My only interest has been to find out if their machines are inspected or verified as to legallity.

I have made zero progress in my quest for knowledge on that subject and would welcome any help.

Jstark
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Post by Jstark »

You'll see that plaque in many, if not all, of the Indian casinos in Michigan. All it means is that the Michigan gaming board has no oversight in them.

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