Chase the royal or keep the flush?

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
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New2vp
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Re: Chase the royal or keep the flush?

Post by New2vp »

onemoretry wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:44 pm
I think I need a beer!
Glad I could help with a worthwhile hobby! At least it is one of my favorites.

And you reminded me of what is below this paragraph. There are a number of people on this site that occasionally use the term infinite ... and some of them even use it correctly. The latter ones will be more likely to see the difference between the following two.

1. An unending parade of an infinite number of mathematicians walks into a bar. The first one orders a beer, the second orders half a beer, and the third orders a third of a beer. That's when the bartender puts up his hands and yells, "Get the hell out of here! Are you trying to ruin me?"

2. An infinite number of mathematicians walk into a bar. The first says, "Give me a beer." The second says, "I'll have a half a beer." The third says, "A quarter of a beer, please." The bartender pours two beers and says, "Come on, people. Know your limits."

Jstark
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Post by Jstark »

FloridaPhil wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:44 am
Jstark wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:26 am
I use my own. And I'm not trying to "beat the casino."
When I play VP on this website, it's not coming out of my pocket. I throw the computer play books out the window and take outlandish risks. Some people call these hands "special plays". At this time, I am ten royals ahead of where VP math says I should be. Is math going to force me to lose to prove it's correct? So many questions. So few answers.
As i said, for contests or tournaments, sometimes you have to throw basic strategy out the window. In normal play, it's a bankroll killer. Don't believe me. Go play blackjack and always hit 17 vs 10. Basic strategy is to stand, but in a tournament setting, hitting might sometimes be the correct play.

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

Gronbog. You are one amazing fellow. I also enjoy your posts. While I was a fair math student back in school, I was more interested in girls and cars. I was better at chatting, which is mostly likely why I ended up in sales.

The question that started this post is interesting. Is there a difference in strategy when you are playing in a daily website contest as opposed to playing in a casino? Obviously there is. One of the main reasons is the daily totals reset. Winning a daily contest is about having the highest score one day at a time. When I play video poker in a casino, this is exactly how I view the game. I view it as a daily battle between me and the casino. Long term means nothing to me. What happened on my last visit is meaningless.
tech58 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:54 pm
Myself i have a very serious question. The "free drink" part of your last quote,at the Hard Rocks in FL.?
Alcohol is not free at the Florida Hard Rocks. Soda, water and coffee are. I don't drink alcohol in a casino.

onemoretry
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Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2009 8:00 pm

Post by onemoretry »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:19 pm
Make that 2 or even three! Peroni for me if you have any!
Sorry, no Peroni in stock, and we're supposed to stay home except to get essential things. Maybe, though, getting some more beer could be thought as essential. After all, here in Ontario, non essential businesses have been required to close, but beer and liquor stores remain open, at least, for now.

I do have some Coors Banquet, Molsons Canadian, and Sleemans Cream Ale to pick from.

tech58
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Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2014 1:21 pm

Post by tech58 »

Thank's to GR and NEW.
GR, your hanging with me thru my last question is greatly appreciated.
Every step very well stated and understandable and it only took me 2^1 2-Hearted Ales. :D :up:

Tedlark
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Post by Tedlark »

New2vp wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:26 pm
onemoretry wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:44 pm
I think I need a beer!
Glad I could help with a worthwhile hobby! At least it is one of my favorites.

And you reminded me of what is below this paragraph. There are a number of people on this site that occasionally use the term infinite ... and some of them even use it correctly. The latter ones will be more likely to see the difference between the following two.

1. An unending parade of an infinite number of mathematicians walks into a bar. The first one orders a beer, the second orders half a beer, and the third orders a third of a beer. That's when the bartender puts up his hands and yells, "Get the hell out of here! Are you trying to ruin me?"

2. An infinite number of mathematicians walk into a bar. The first says, "Give me a beer." The second says, "I'll have a half a beer." The third says, "A quarter of a beer, please." The bartender pours two beers and says, "Come on, people. Know your limits."
A Physicist walks into a bar and orders a beer. A second Physicist walks into a bar and before odering a beer, asks: "What's the half life of a beer?" Overhearing this, the Irish bartender replies: "Normally about 1 minute."

Gronbog
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Post by Gronbog »

bobvandy33 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:18 am
I was playing today's (3/24/20) challenge, which was Hundred Play Draw Poker, Triple Double Bonus. I was dealt the following hand: Ah, Kh, Jh, Th, 3h for a flush out of the gate. It pays 35 per flush, so times 100, it was going to pay out 3,500 credits if I stayed pat.

I decided to discard the 3h to chase the Qh for the royal because my thinking was that if I hit just one Qh I would make an additional 500 credits off of my guarantee, with the possibility of hitting multiple Qh's.
So, back to the original post and armed with the math that we've done here we now have enough information to discuss whether going for the royal was a good play.

Holding the flush was good for a guaranteed 3500 credits. We now know that the expected number of royals was 2.1 meaning that the expected win for going for it was, at a minimum, 2.1 x 4000 = 8400. I say "at a minimum" because as bob pointed, out some extra wins on other paying hands are also probable. However, as bob found also out there is no guarantee.

So, was going for the royal(s) a good decision? I depends first on how valuable the guaranteed 3500 points are. I haven't played any of the contests, so I don't know. But if 3500 points are enough to win the contest then of course you should take the flush(es). If 3500 points are enough to get you within striking distance, then you should also seriously consider it. If neither is true, then by the principle increasing variance that I discussed earlier you should go for the royal(s).
Last edited by Gronbog on Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

Gronbog
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Post by Gronbog »

New2vp wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:26 pm
1. An unending parade of an infinite number of mathematicians walks into a bar. The first one orders a beer, the second orders half a beer, and the third orders a third of a beer. That's when the bartender puts up his hands and yells, "Get the hell out of here! Are you trying to ruin me?"

2. An infinite number of mathematicians walk into a bar. The first says, "Give me a beer." The second says, "I'll have a half a beer." The third says, "A quarter of a beer, please." The bartender pours two beers and says, "Come on, people. Know your limits."
I hated converging vs non-coverging series in university, but I liked beer :up:

Gronbog
Senior Member
Posts: 267
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:59 pm

Post by Gronbog »

Jstark wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:52 pm
As i said, for contests or tournaments, sometimes you have to throw basic strategy out the window. In normal play, it's a bankroll killer. Don't believe me. Go play blackjack and always hit 17 vs 10. Basic strategy is to stand, but in a tournament setting, hitting might sometimes be the correct play.
So very true! Tournament play is sometimes about engineering a particular outcome and needing to do it now.

I once correctly and successfully doubled on hard 19 on the final hand of a blackjack tournament round. For those who don't play blackjack, you can double your bet after seeing the first 2 cards of a hand, but in exchange you have to take exactly one additional card. You would never hit or double a hard 19 during regular play, but in that situation it was only way I could advance to the next round.

I can post the details but only if there is any interest.

tech58
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Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2014 1:21 pm

Post by tech58 »

Interested.
Considering going back to 21 after 10-12 years of VP.
Did very well on many junkets back in the day, when they were easy free vacations. With only a very simple count system.

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