DDB Progressive Question

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OTABILL
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DDB Progressive Question

Post by OTABILL »

I was playing a single line DDB $0.25 progressive last night when I was dealt a K High SF. I believe correct strategy on a non-progressive is to keep the SF rather than go for the RF. At least that is what my basic chart from BD's book indicates (#5 vs #6). At the time, the progressive was about $1,530. I kept the SF but wondered what BD would do.

seemoreroyals
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Post by seemoreroyals »

I think you made the right play. I am interested as well in what BD has to say. I am sure at some point it would made sense to give up $62.50 for a shot at at much larger payout maybe even where the progressive was at when you hit your dealt SF.

Waiting4RF
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Post by Waiting4RF »

The math play is hold the SF. If you go for the royal, on average you will get the royal 1 out of 47 times on the draw for $1530. But if you hold the SF all 47 times, your total won is $2937.50 which is much greater than the royal amount.

How often are you dealt a straight flush? It depends on how many hands you play. The odds are 72,193 to 1. Some people may go for the royal.

OTABILL
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Post by OTABILL »

Waiting4RF wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 12:30 pm
The math play is hold the SF. If you go for the royal, on average you will get the royal 1 out of 47 times on the draw for $1530. But if you hold the SF all 47 times, your total won is $2937.50 which is much greater than the royal amount.

How often are you dealt a straight flush? It depends on how many hands you play. The odds are 72,193 to 1. Some people may go for the royal.
As noted, with no available reference, I figured the SF hold was correct. As we all know folks make foolish, off the wall plays though going for the royal would be a calculated risk given the hand dealt. From a practical perspective, the monetary difference is greater than your calculation when you factor in that a $1530 royal would generate a W2-G thus increasing the tax burden. While the odds of being dealt a SF may be 72,193, what are the odds of being dealt a specific one, namely K high?

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

My fall-back thinking on a hand like that is that the value of the SF is $62.50.
The "value" of the Royal shot is,on average $1530/47= $32.55 (not considering OB's valid point on the W2G).
Our resident math wizards may helpfully correct my thinking.

Waiting4RF
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Post by Waiting4RF »

The odds of getting dealt a King high SF are the same as a dealt royal. 649,740 to 1

Jstark
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Post by Jstark »

You can use a hand calculator to figure it out. Just keep changing the royal amount higher and higher until it says holding the royal draw is more valuable. I'm sure the flush pay out will have a slight impact also depending on if it pays 5 or 6.

Jstark
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Post by Jstark »

Ok, just used the wizard's hand calculator, and it shows for 9/6, the royal must pay 2276 for 1. At 2275 for 1, holding the straight flush or suited KQJT both have exact equal returns. With 9/5, it must be 2283 for 1 (2282 for 1 is break even).
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onemoretry
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Post by onemoretry »

That means the five coin royal payout would have to have been $11375 to make going for it the mathematically better play. It wasn't even close!

Jstark
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Post by Jstark »

Although probably very very rare or nonexistent, I just did the 40/10/6 version. The royal would have to pay 1805 for 1 to have the exact same payback percentage as the straight flush or 1806 for 1 for the KQJT suited to be the better hold over KQJT9 suited.
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