Why keep the Q and J but not the Ace?

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
GML
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Why keep the Q and J but not the Ace?

Post by GML »

I recently started learning to play Jacks or better.
While practicing with a tutorial, I was dealt the following hand:

Kd / 9s / As / 3h / Qc

I chose to hold the three high cards but software told me I should only keep the Kd and Qc.

It says, best hands:
1) K - - - Q : 2.39
2) K - A - - : 2.38
3) - - A - Q : 2.33
4) K - A - Q : 2.28

I don't really understand the logic. Why is holding two cards better than holding three? And given that it's "Jacks or better", why does the K and Q seem better than the Ace on first option, the K and A better than Q in second, and A and Q better than the K? I would have imagined the three of them hold equal value and have the same outs?

Player422738
VP Veteran
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Post by Player422738 »

Video poker may be more complex than you think.

For a 52-card deck, for any dealt hand, by holding all to none of them, there are 32 ways of holding the cards.

The expected return is the average of all outcomes given by a specific holding. It may be counter-intuitive.

You may find the difference if you look at the number of ways each pay line you can possibly hit. Most of the time, the straight or flush penalty card has a major impact on strategy.

crxsti
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Post by crxsti »

You limit the possibility to draw to higher paying hands such as high pairs, two pairs, three of kinds, straights, full houses (this would be zero with AKQ), and 4 of a kinds (also zero with AKQ) because you're reducing the number of draws (or "outs" as you said) which reduces the overall expected value of holding AKQ when compared to holding just KQ. All of these possible outcomes contribute to the higher expected value of 2.39 when holding just KQ.

AK and AQ give you the same probability of drawing high pairs, two pairs, three of kinds, full houses and 4 of a kinds as KQ, but AK and AQ have a lower probability of completing a straight, so KQ is more favorable than AK and AQ.

If you have Video Poker for Winners software you can analyze a specific hand and then expand the analysis to show how all of the hands contribute to the EV. I think you can also do that with Pro membership on this site, but I only have the gold membership so I can't say for certain.

This is the type of chart VPW software provides (albeit much clearer and more in-depth in the software):

Best Holds: Possible Outcomes


Holding EV Total No Win "High Pair " 2 Pair 3K ST FL FH 4K SF RF


K♦Q♣ 2.39745 16,215 10,193 4,914 711 281 96 0 18 2 0 0
K♦A♠ 2.33825 16,215 10,241 4,914 711 281 48 0 18 2 0 0
A♠Q♣ 2.33825 16,215 10,241 4,914 711 281 48 0 18 2 0 0
K♦A♠Q♣ 2.2803 1,081 681 348 27 9 16 0 0 0 0 0
Last edited by crxsti on Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:51 am, edited 2 times in total.

BobDancer
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Post by BobDancer »

Check again. AK and AQ should have exactly the same EV. KQ should be best (more straights possible), and AKQ should be worst (no full houses possible and much more difficult to get 3-of-a-kind.)

The strategy rule in this game for this one (of many) parts of the strategy chart is, in order:

1. Hold the high cards that are suited with each other
2. For three unsuited high cards, with one of them being an ace, discard the ace and hold the other two
3. For three unsuited high cards, with none of them being an ace, hold all three (namely KQJ).
4. A ten is not a high card. Just A, K, Q, and J. In general the ace is the weakest of those in Jacks or Better because it's involved in fewer straights and straight flushes than the others.

You're just beginning. You will have LOTS more questions. The best systematic instruction book to learn that game is the Dancer Daily "Winner's Guide to Jacks or Better." It will tell you what the correct play is, and WHY. Asking disjointed questions one by one and taking answers from all comers is not usually an effective way to learn something well.

BobDancer
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Post by BobDancer »

I see I was typing my answer while crxsti was posting his/hers --- which had considerable overlap. I'm unfamiliar with that name, but this post indicates he/she is more knowledgeable about the game than many here.

Player422738
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Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:05 pm

Post by Player422738 »

BobDancer wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:52 am
... but this post indicates he/she is more knowledgeable about the game than many here.
Because he is using VPW?

crxsti
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Joined: Sun Jun 15, 2014 3:23 pm

Post by crxsti »

hophoofer wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:54 am
BobDancer wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:52 am
... but this post indicates he/she is more knowledgeable about the game than many here.
Because he is using VPW?

Would you feel better if I scribbled out the analysis with a pencil and paper, scanned the piece of paper, and posted the JPEG here?

Video Poker for Winners is extremely useful software and it does what computers and software are supposed to do - process data quickly and efficiently.

I referenced VPW (and also the Pro membership) because it seemed that the original poster wasn't aware that the software contained these features.

I do also own the Dancer/Daily books and strategy cards, but I felt that referencing either VPW or Videopoker.com Pro Membership were more appropriate, since the analysis provided by those two programs fits the format that the original poster was referencing.

With all due respect to you hophoofer - your response was pretty convoluted and didn't do much to answer a basic question from a beginning player.

billryan
Video Poker Master
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Post by billryan »

I find that a lot of VP players don't understand penalty cards and gloss over the differences they make.
I've seen it in person at Mr Dancers classes where a whole room full of us were unable to decide which cards to keep in a certain situation, and why holding dot dot dot was better than holding dash dash dash. While hophoofers advice was correct, it may have been too technical for many beginners.
One of the best features of Mr Dancers classes is how he walks you through situations so you get your own answers, rather than just giving you the answer.

Jstark
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Post by Jstark »

When you start learning other games, you'll find other instances that don't make sense also.

OTABILL
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Post by OTABILL »

Jstark wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:01 pm
When you start learning other games, you'll find other instances that don't make sense also.
There is one in Bob's 9/6 DDB chart like that. # 37 which says to hold the FL3 ih KTx before just the RF KT, QT. Why just the KTX and not the QTX?

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