10/7 Double Bonus 3 Aces vs Fullhouse

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
YearOfTheCat
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Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:41 pm

Re: 10/7 Double Bonus 3 Aces vs Fullhouse

Post by YearOfTheCat »

I found this discussion interesting, because I don't see much online about comparing plays with similar EV but different variance.

For example, in JOB and Bonus Poker, standard strategy says that 3/Royal always beats 4/Flush (except in rare penalty card situations). The EV of 3/Royal is almost always higher, and in the "long run" you'll come out on top.

But that difference in EV can be very small, particularly when the 3/Royal contains Ten and Ace. And the variance between the two plays is very different (I haven't done the math about just how much).

Holding 4/Flush and drawing 1, the chance of completing the flush is 18.75%. Unless there's high cards in the four, that's the only payoff for the hand. It's very predictable.

With 3/Royal and drawing 2, the chance of completing the royal is 0.085%. There's also payoffs for straights and flushes, and straight flush if 9TJQK is possible. It's a much more volatile play.

If I'm a professional playing every day, of course I'll hold the higher EV. But if I'm a recreational player doing a few thousand hands on a weekend, I would be inclined to go with the more predictable lower payout with holding 4/Royal.

Any thoughts about this?

YearOfTheCat
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Posts: 6
Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:41 pm

Post by YearOfTheCat »

Correction in the last sentence: I would hold the more predictable 4/Flush.

pokerpokerpoker
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Posts: 542
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2008 12:05 am

Post by pokerpokerpoker »

But, maybe you get a scratch card in the quads.

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