Video Poker Forum

Jstark wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:07 am

You'd also have to factor in how often you're dealt aces full.

I tried to work this out. Does an average of once per 9024 deals sound right?

10/7 DB was one of my early games I was fixated on and was playing 15 hours / week. I tend toward bankroll conservative play strategy, so initially elected to hold an "aces full". Over time, I found that nailing the 50 credits each time provided little buffer against the overall volatility of the game. I finally decided to throw caution to the wind ( ) and break the aces. The biggest payback was just a tad more occasional thrill. (Now, even if I'm down to my last 5 credits of the day, I'm goin' for the aces!)

onemoretry wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:21 am

Jstark wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 29, 2020 7:07 am

You'd also have to factor in how often you're dealt aces full.

I tried to work this out. Does an average of once per 9024 deals sound right?

Without looking it up, looks correct to me. There are 4 ways to arrange the aces and 72 ways to make a pair from the other 12 ranks. Therefore there are 288 dealt Aces Full hands. 2,598,960/288 = 9024.1666...

I have had this situation and when the 4 Aces hit, I was happy to have risked the full house! It's called gambling right?

kgoldman wrote: ↑

Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:12 am

I have had this situation and when the 4 Aces hit, I was happy to have risked the full house! It's called gambling right?

The correct play has nothing to do with whether you hit it on one particular play. Sometimes you're going to connect. Sometimes you aren't. You must make your decision before you know what the outcome will be.

The correct play has everything to do with how this will work over the next zillion times the situation comes up. Consistently making the highest EV play will end up more profitable than consistently making the 2nd-best (or worse) play. Not every day, certainly. But over time.

Another example that's been used a few times is this. You make a $1 million bet at blackjack right after a fresh shuffle. You are dealt a blackjack but the dealer gets an ace up. You're now offered "even money", as is standard in most games. Do you take it and why? I wouldn't as the correct play is to decline, but many others would tor CE reasons.

I take the even money. Why? This is not a run-of-the-mill bet. Not,most likely,one in a series of $1 million dollar bets. By that i mean it is a bet-the-farm thing going in, similar to the actual $777,777 bet on craps at the GN Las Vegas years ago. You hoped for a win and you have it in hand. I TAKE THE MONEY!

Dang,i wish i had the opportunity to make that bad decision.

Jstark wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:17 am

Another example that's been used a few times is this. You make a $1 million bet at blackjack right after a fresh shuffle. You are dealt a blackjack but the dealer gets an ace up. You're now offered "even money", as is standard in most games. Do you take it and why? I wouldn't as the correct play is to decline, but many others would tor CE reasons.

I have tough time with the hypothetical. I see no realistic chance of that ever happening. So I'm not wasting time considering what I'd do. Whatever people say they would do in a situation that is unlikely is not a good predictor of what they'd actually do.

It's like, if I were married to Jennifer Anniston when we were both in our 30s, then I would do xxxxxxxx. Ain't going to happen, so whatever I announce is irrelevant.

BobDancer wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:16 pm

It's like, if I were married to Jennifer Anniston when we were both in our 30s, then I would do xxxxxxxx. Ain't going to happen, so whatever I announce is irrelevant.

As if there is something diminished about her at age 51 and a net worth of 300 million dollars????????

Other than her net worth, she's average. Now Nicole Aniston is another story!!