Re: 10/7 Double Bonus 3 Aces vs Fullhouse
Posted: Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:20 pm
I found this discussion interesting, because I don't see much online about comparing plays with similar EV but different variance.
For example, in JOB and Bonus Poker, standard strategy says that 3/Royal always beats 4/Flush (except in rare penalty card situations). The EV of 3/Royal is almost always higher, and in the "long run" you'll come out on top.
But that difference in EV can be very small, particularly when the 3/Royal contains Ten and Ace. And the variance between the two plays is very different (I haven't done the math about just how much).
Holding 4/Flush and drawing 1, the chance of completing the flush is 18.75%. Unless there's high cards in the four, that's the only payoff for the hand. It's very predictable.
With 3/Royal and drawing 2, the chance of completing the royal is 0.085%. There's also payoffs for straights and flushes, and straight flush if 9TJQK is possible. It's a much more volatile play.
If I'm a professional playing every day, of course I'll hold the higher EV. But if I'm a recreational player doing a few thousand hands on a weekend, I would be inclined to go with the more predictable lower payout with holding 4/Royal.
Any thoughts about this?
For example, in JOB and Bonus Poker, standard strategy says that 3/Royal always beats 4/Flush (except in rare penalty card situations). The EV of 3/Royal is almost always higher, and in the "long run" you'll come out on top.
But that difference in EV can be very small, particularly when the 3/Royal contains Ten and Ace. And the variance between the two plays is very different (I haven't done the math about just how much).
Holding 4/Flush and drawing 1, the chance of completing the flush is 18.75%. Unless there's high cards in the four, that's the only payoff for the hand. It's very predictable.
With 3/Royal and drawing 2, the chance of completing the royal is 0.085%. There's also payoffs for straights and flushes, and straight flush if 9TJQK is possible. It's a much more volatile play.
If I'm a professional playing every day, of course I'll hold the higher EV. But if I'm a recreational player doing a few thousand hands on a weekend, I would be inclined to go with the more predictable lower payout with holding 4/Royal.
Any thoughts about this?