Those hands that make you think

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
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jconifer7
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Those hands that make you think

Post by jconifer7 »

Like this one I was dealt:

2c 3d 4c 4d 5d

More than one option with this. The first is that there are four sequential cards that could be held to a Straight, the second is that there are three cards that could be held to a Flush, maybe a Straight Flush, and the third is the pair of fours and since I was playing Triple Double there was a possibility of a high paying Four of a Kind.

My choice was to hold the 3, 4, and 5 of diamonds, because I thought there were ten more of them in the deck, four of which could lead to a higher payout if dealt just right, either A and 2, or 2 and 6, or 6 and 7. Otherwise you had at least the ability to get a Flush at a higher payout than a Straight or Three of a Kind.

Eight cards would have given me a Straight if I held for that but ten diamonds were two more than eight cards being one of the four Aces or four sixes. And I would have had three shots at two more fours, but it would have been harder to come by and I would have thrown out two of the cards that would be kickers.

A lot of things could have happened however I chose to play it, and it seems like the easier thing to do is not always better than the harder thing to do. After all, you can get a Royal Flush just by keeping a single face card.

onemoretry
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Post by onemoretry »

jconifer7 wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:13 pm
since I was playing Triple Double there was a possibility of a high paying Four of a Kind.
9/7, 9/6, 9/5, or, horrors, 8/5?

Player422738
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Post by Player422738 »

In TDB, regardless of pay schedule. Always hold the low pair.

3, 4, and 5 of diamonds are low rank 3 to SF with 0 gaps. You go for straight flush with 0 gaps on 9/7 version a lot where it doesn't contain a low pair. However there are lots of exceptions.

In 9/7 TDB, you go for flush a lot, 4 to flush is always better than 3 to royal in this version.

in 9/7 TDB, suited 3 and 4 should be held if there is no other better option.

Jstark
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Post by Jstark »

There's only one option. It's always the choice with the highest expected value.

TripleTriple
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Post by TripleTriple »

Jstark wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:38 pm
There's only one option. It's always the choice with the highest expected value.
Which I believe is the 4's here. But only on account of the premium 4oak payouts. otherwise would be four to outside straight no high cards, actually a surprisingly formidable hand. It outranks a lone Ace, which in this variant is something, since you are often keeping a single ace. I used to always want to keep 3 to the SF (even more so with the 35 credits for the flush, let alone the SF), but finally broke myself of the habit and accepted it (EV rules...).

Looked it up:

4's 0.899476
4's w/2 or 3 0.772433
2345 0.680851
345d 0.602220

goes to show the power of the 2s,3s and 4s in TDB. And I also had to remember that like Aces full, you break up any full house with (3) 2,3,or 4s keeping a kicker of course...

jconifer7
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Post by jconifer7 »

So it looks like based on what I'm reading here, I was more paranoid of losing than I was concerned about winning more. I thought about a couple things in the decision I made, the first is that someone on another thread mentioned to me is that it's better to have more Full Houses than one single paying Four of a Kind that's not more than 1000, and then I also read somewhere else on the site (I think under superstitions) that kickers should not be held when dealt because they only reduce the number of chances for a fourth card on the draw.

Maybe I'm reading too much into other people's strategies and should just do what I think is right like I was before. I held a Jack and 10 of spades one time and got a Royal Flush doing that, and some people say not to hold a 10 because of no high pair return.

And since someone asked, it was a 9/5 game.

billryan
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Post by billryan »

There are many bad players who post here, and some superstitious people as well.
I do not play the game you mentioned so I can't tell you which way to go,but as mentioned there is only one right decision.
Find the one that is supported by math and go for it.
There are a few people who post here that understand the game and the math behind it. Trust them and the math and forget about things like cold/hot cyles, and the other superstitions.

TripleTriple
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Post by TripleTriple »

Oh please don't be paranoid of losing! Be paranoid of the 9/5 TDB at 97.02. And be paranoid of some of that "advice". Always know the math, the EV, the proper play (essentially the same thing)- then it's up to you if (not recommended but for whatever reason) you want to deviate.

And this update to the post above: at 9/5, the 3d,4d,5d hold is reduced even further to 0.524514 on account of the reduced flush payout...the other hands EV are unchanged.

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