I’m positive EV after 5 years. It shouldn’t be possible?

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
tech58
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Re: I’m positive EV after 5 years. It shouldn’t be possible?

Post by tech58 »

BobDancer wrote:
Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:11 pm
I have enough information.

+EV means you're playing a game that is more than 100%. He's playing a 99.7% game. It's negative EV.

EV refers to expectation.

His post refers to actual results, not expectation.
I get that part about the game itself.
My question was intended to find out what additional return was added in due to slot club benefits.
The term for the total return is not EV, as you pointed out. What would it be ER?

MedzPoker
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Post by MedzPoker »

@ Olds442 Over 20million hands. Wow. Pretty cool to run into someone who has done that kind of time. I’m under no illusion that I won’t eventually get back into the negative but it has been nice that my first years playing have thus far been ahead of the game. I’m really disciplined as long as I have some kind of self imposed rules set in place otherwise I struggle there too. I keep those tendencies in check with a strict regime.

600k hands without a Royal is some extreme bad luck but doesn’t surprise me. But to think I thought me waiting over 150k before my first was on the bad luck side. :) I am always curious as to what betting methods people use specifically. It keeps the game interesting for me to change up those methods to different ones over time and see how things shake out.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

For the most part, if I stuck to my mild Martingale Clone on regular or even Bonus Deuces Wild, I would be fine. My biggest problem is on hand pays. Either the same or next session, I move up to dollar play. On a cold streak which almost always happens, my hand pay or pays evaporate like an ice cube on a hot sidewalk. If I could stick to upping my bet a bit when I lose 250 bucks without hitting deuces, most times, they appear long before another 5,000 hands. Discipline has been a lifetime work in progress.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Forgot.....though the experts will say it is just coincidence, watch for a really good hand shortly after an extremely long dud streak. I mean like 30 consecutive or more dud hands not counting pushes. All of my largest jackpots have come within seconds or just a few minutes of a horrible dud streak including the two I had for 18,000 bucks in the same day.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

MedzPoker wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:27 am
Now where I play you get 100% bonus on any deposit but to get to keep that bonus you need to play out 40x in wagers. Which is pretty much impossible and I’ve only done a handful of times.
I must be missing something. I don't understand why a 40x playthrough requirement would be anywhere near impossible. And the value of a 100% bonus should far exceed the 0.3% house edge on the game itself. If you're playing the game accurately, your overall EV should be positive.

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

There you go again with the EV error pointed out earlier in this thread. Return to go.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

tech58 wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:28 pm
Return to go.
Game EV + EV boost from the bonus(es) = overall EV.

I'm not stuck on any particular terminology. What term should I use instead of "overall EV"?

case
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Post by case »

So you are playing online and not in a land casino. That might explain why you have not hit many royals.

MedzPoker
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Post by MedzPoker »

I’m playing online too yeah. And to clarify.. the reason I say the 40x seems almost impossible because with the site I play on it’s not actually 40x because only a certain percentage of different casino games go toward the wager and that percentage varies depending on what game you play. With VP for example it’s only 30%. A mugs game.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

MedzPoker wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:25 pm
With VP for example it’s only 30%. A mugs game.
In that case, the VP playthrough would be 133.33x. Inverse is 0.75%. Maybe the casino imposes other restrictive rules you haven't mentioned, but it sounds like the bonus value exceeds the house edge of the game you're playing.

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