Question for BD on Royalless streaks

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
olds442jetaway
Video Poker Master
Posts: 9262
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm

Question for BD on Royalless streaks

Post by olds442jetaway »

Bob, do you know or remember in round numbers roughly what your longest stretch in numbers of hands played was without hitting a Royal? I know that only end of year results matter, but I am just curious.
You may remember from my posts over the years that I have had three stretches of over 600,000 hands without a Royal over the years. I also went another 200,000 hands from mid July until last week to hit one. The ones close together on my end in no way made up for what the average should be say between 40,000 and 55,000 hands depending on the game. My sample is between 20,000,000 and 22,000,000 lifetime hands played. 85 percent or so of the hands have been on single line games, about 5 percent on multi line games, and about 10 percent on DDS which I know runs nearly 650,000 hands average long run between Royals. This lack of Royals has put me way behind percentage wise on my losses by at least another full percentage point lifetime. All of the play I am counting has been at Ct casinos. Thanks Again, I am just curious as the data I cited for myself seems to have nearly impossible numbers.

Player422738
VP Veteran
Posts: 516
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:05 pm

Post by Player422738 »

Again, 600,000 hands without a Royal is impossible (and u had 3 of that sessions which is extremely impossible) if the card is dealt randomly.

Your machine is rigged.

Tedlark
Video Poker Master
Posts: 7937
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:29 am

Post by Tedlark »

hophoofer wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:30 pm
Again, 600,000 hands without a Royal is impossible (and u had 3 of that sessions which is extremely impossible) if the card is dealt randomly.

Your machine is rigged.
This accumulation of hands was at different CT casinos, olds doesn't state that all 600,000 hands were played at the same machine.

olds442jetaway
Video Poker Master
Posts: 9262
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm

Post by olds442jetaway »

I would agree with you except in vp so many nearly impossible events happen every session. For instance, just take two dealt hands, any dealt hands, then figure the probability of the cards being dealt exactly that way and in exactly that order then followed by the cards in the following hand never mind
the hands over even the next 15 minutes coming out exactly a certain way. Probability is off the charts. 30 years ago in Atlantic City in the old Playboy Casino I watched a homeless lady with a single dollar chip to bet on the number 12 and a free bet made for her on the line roll 5 consecutive 12s. Another time I busted a small bankroll betting on red in roulette. Black came out 16 consecutive times. The last time I ever played blackjack was at Foxwoods. The dealer had blackjack 11 out of 13 hands. If I hadn’t seen these things myself, I wouldn’t have believed it either. Such is the world of probabilities.

olds442jetaway
Video Poker Master
Posts: 9262
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm

Post by olds442jetaway »

Yes, a lifetime of play on different games and machines. All in Ct. about 80 percent at Mohegan Sun. I also know a couple that had 4 Royals in less than 2 hours of play also at Mohegan Sun some years ago so go figure. All on 9/6 JOB. Here’s one more. About 12 years ago also at Mohegan Sun playing Bonus poker, I had quad Aces 5 times in about 45 minutes. I forget now, but either 2 or 3 of them were dealt. And by now, I guess all of you have read my posts about winning exactly 18,000 bucks to the penny in a 12 hour period twice on two different machines and two completely games. And not only that, the bets were all over the place all day.

Player422738
VP Veteran
Posts: 516
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:05 pm

Post by Player422738 »

P[600,000 hands without a Royal] = 1/3,269,630 = 0

olds442jetaway
Video Poker Master
Posts: 9262
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm

Post by olds442jetaway »

I know. Believe me I know, but there are crazy winning stories in the other direction too. Just not mine. Another Mohegan player I know wins 1,000,000 on a scratch off ticket. He decides to celebrate, he goes to Mohegan Sun. His first spin on a 10 dollar game he wins 50k. Since gave it all back of course. Not sure if he still has the million

BobDancer
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1112
Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:07 am

Post by BobDancer »

I don't keep track of royal cycles. I've had 8-month losing streaks with only a few royals along the way.

I do agree that a 600,000-hand royalless streak is very unlikely --- but 1 in 3 million is not the same as zero chance. you've had three of them? I find that doubtful. I do not know the status of your records, and I'm certainly not calling you any names, but most people who make such claims are making wild-ass estimates that are off in some way.

do you really have records of how many hands you played every day?

billryan
Video Poker Master
Posts: 4421
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 1:20 pm

Post by billryan »

I played BJ for almost twenty years without getting four blackjack in a row. When I finally got them, it was as if the dam had burst. Got them two days in a row, and a third time later that trip. In the next four years, I got it once. Play long enough and you will see some strange things.

olds442jetaway
Video Poker Master
Posts: 9262
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm

Post by olds442jetaway »

Bob, my records are accurate to within about 5 percent. And I posted them as they were happening not after the fact. I still do not believe the machines are rigged. I know how many hands I play per hour on average. I make allowances for breaks, dinner etc. so I keep a running total. It’s actually pretty easy because I am at the casino so often. Usually 3 overnights and a good part of the following day. The hands played run up quickly. In round numbers, 5,000 hands in an 8 hour session. If I play multiline or spin poker, I make allowances in the numbers as well. Funny, on the other side of the coin, I am above average on hitting quad deuces by about 12 percent even after about 10,000,000 deuces wild hands. I think between errors in strategy and just plain mistakes by playing too fast or sticky buttons, I think my extra1 percent loss from being under Royaled would be more if I didn’t hit the extra quad deuces. Anyway, thanks for your input. Eight months in itself is quite a long stretch and I have no doubt you were under Royaled pretty good during that period. One final note. In my five trips to Aruba all of which had a lot of vp play, I have hit 7 Royals in about 60,000 hands total of nickel play. My post on my bad streaks is just about my play at Ct casinos.

Post Reply