Question for BD on Royalless streaks

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Player422738
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Re: Question for BD on Royalless streaks

Post by Player422738 »

advantage playe wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:52 am
I happen to believe you Olds !! what helps me believe you is that I hit 3 royals at 9 6 job in less than 1 hour at mount airy PA. if nobody believes me, so what !!! I still got paid !!
Lets say you played 500 hands in that power hour...

The odds of hitting 3 royals is ((39999.0 / 40000) ^ 497) * ((1.0/40000) ^ 3) * (500C3) = 0.0000003196

or 1 in 3129158

Yes. The odds are nearly identical between 600K hands without royal and 500 hands with 3 royals.

The reason why I said 600K without royal is impossible otherwise the machine is rigged, is olds442jetaway said he had 3 such streaks.

AP, you can try to repeat it another 2 times and make my statement completely false. :D

billryan
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Post by billryan »

Once you have hit a Royal, which can happen anytime, isn't the unusual event hitting two in the next hour, rather than looking at the odds of three.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

This is for hop. If u type in a keyword Royalless, and go back to my posts of 2014, you will see the flow of events snd the three streaks as they unfolded. I think you hit search users posts, type in the keyword and go from there

Player422738
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Post by Player422738 »

billryan wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:45 pm
Once you have hit a Royal, which can happen anytime, isn't the unusual event hitting two in the next hour, rather than looking at the odds of three.
There is no confliction between different thoughts. For the odds of hitting royal never changes. For 500 hands, the odds of hitting 3 royals is 1 in 3129158. For 100K hands, the odds of hitting 3 royals is around 20-25%. Counting the odds of hitting 2 royals after 1 occurred is conditional. Either you count the one that already occurred or not, the analysis is still self-consistent.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

If one hit three in a row on job, the probability must be astronomical. I know someone who hit two back to back and another one 5 minutes later. I don't know how many hands were played, but I would assume at 600 hands per hour, 50. Even the probability of that would be astounding. I know the suits went nuts, They did pay hin, but shut down that bank of machines the rest of the night. Management at casinos are even more suierstitius than some of us vp players are.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

As long as we are talking about probabilities and rare occurrences, here is an extract from one of my old posts.....,,Must be nearly ten years ago now. I was walking by a 2 seater progressive penny machine at Mohegan Sun. At that exact moment, a lady hits the machine for the 2.3 million progressive. It made national news and for all I know, I may have been in some of the pics congratulating her or hanging there when the photos started. Within seconds security, yellow tape, and a dozen suits arrived. They didn’t even wisk me away, probably thinking we may want to interview him as well, but they never did. I did stay there and watch the events though for quite a few minutes. Imagine the probability of that event. My walking by her machine at the moment she hit. Again off the charts. Funny, I was on my way to play a little 2 cent One Eyed Jacks vp in the old poker room. Her machine was about 20 feet away. Old time Mohegan regulars will know exactly where I am talking about in the casino. That whole area is now a comedy club now.

advantage playe
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Post by advantage playe »

when there is a good play at a casino I play over 1000 hands per hour . any faster and errors creep in !! funny thing at borgata ,I was playing job 9 6 was dealt a pair of tens with 3 to a royal , made an error and kept the pair of tens . just as I hit the draw button I realised it . sure enough the two other cards making the royal appeared ! I know , I know that doesnt mean I would have recieved the same cards since the rng keeps shuffling but bugged me for quite a while ! as evidenced by my memory of it to this day !!

Jstark
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Post by Jstark »

The fastest 2 single line royals I've gotten were 6 hands apart. But the 2nd occurred about 5 hours after the first. I had cash out and left and came back later and on the same machine.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Still very cool. I got two nickel ones in Aruba many years ago. After the first one, the wife and I celebrated with a couple of Aruba Arriba cocktails, danced one dance to a salsa band that was playing, went back to the same machine and hit within a minute or so the second one. Only 200 bucks each but that was a lot of money to us back then. Those were the days, nickel 96 jacks or better and at the end of your stay which was usually a week, our host would give us in cash all of the money we lost at the casino before we went back to the airport. They were just thrilled to have us come back to the island every year and spend money on hotels dining drinking and anything else we did while we stayed there. I guess those days are gone forever

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

Olds i thought my break even BJ play in Aruba was great for ARFB but your money back guarantee sounds better on the gambling part.

On the Rapid Royals issue, i posted before about Back-to-backs on consecutive hands.
Reluctant to do that with no photos, which i guess would not mean anything anyway,and the W2G's are
11 minutes apart so believe it or not.
As AP said "I still got paid". :D

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