Did I figure this anywhere correctly?

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olds442jetaway
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Did I figure this anywhere correctly?

Post by olds442jetaway »

In 17/7 Joker Kings, the probability of back to back quads is roughly one in 14,000?

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

Yes, I think that's correct. Quad on the next hand is (1 in) 118, so quad on the next two hands would be 118 x 118 = ~14,000.

Your question makes me wonder which game is best (easiest) for hitting quads. Deuces Joker Wild runs about 1 in 12. I don't know of any game with more than five wilds.

New2vp
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Post by New2vp »

olds, your calculation is correct and dinghy's confirmation is correct if, as dinghy specified, you are concerned with how likely it is to encounter consecutive quads on the next two hands in single line play using max-EV optimal strategy, but ONLY if you are concerned with the NEXT two hands and NOT if you have already observed that phenomenon sometime during your own prolonged play of that game.

If you are just practicing the calculation of odds of two independent events, this is perfect analysis. The final result has odds of about 13,818 to 1.

On the off-hand, if you had been playing the game for a while, an hour, a day, or a couple weeks, and noticed two such hands occurring consecutively sometime during the play, the odds of such an occurrence take on a markedly different value. After a given amount of play, it could actually be more unusual if you NEVER observed consecutive quads than if you saw them at least once.

At the modest rate of 512 hands per hour, the odds are less than 27 to 1 that you would have observed consecutive quads at least once within that hour. In an 8-hour stint, the odds would be less than 3 to 1.

If you recall when Frank Kneeland was posting here, he made similar points from time to time, but that has been a while ago.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Thanks guys. I never read his stuff. May not have been around on the site then. I seem to see this ( back to back quads ) happen about every three trips over time so that makes sense since I play about four or five thousand hands per session.
There is a reason I started playing Joker Kings instead of Jacks or better with the Martingale clone method I use. I still have to fine tune things, but with the clone, on Job, I tend to bust bankroll on an ice cold day where no quads come in. Also, in job, speaking only of 99.54 job here, I wait roughly 400 hands long term to get paid 25 for one. With joker kings, long term, in roughly 354 hands, I get paid for bet one, 51 instead of 25 on job.
I know there are so many other factors involved, but for me to stay alive with the clone until a really nice hit comes along in Joker kings, I need the quads. There are other little things that come along long term like 2 or 3 straight flushes per session at 50 for one while waiting for the Royal, wild Royal, or 5 of a kind. Here is a pic of a nice straight flush hit today which gave me plenty of more ammo for awhile to wait for a better hit. Of course after this hit at bet 13, I would pretty much go back to bet 5 or even 1 if I want to abdorb the short coin Royal penalty. Luckily, the machines I have access too allow bets up to 25 quarters. Then I can start at bet 13 on a 50 cent game if I have too and worst case scenario I can always switch to dollars on the same machine as long as I have the bankroll to do it. I know over time I cannot beat EV, but I have a very good chance of being ahead every session without busting and as long as I back my bets down when I win, I can wait a long time while waiting for a really nice hit.
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olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

The fine tuning part I am working on is how long to wait before increasing my bet. I like 4 consecutive losses, but that is pretty steep. If I remember, in joker kings you will get at least double your bet back roughly every 5 hands. Waiting say for consecutive losses much more than 5 hands, leaves me too far behind the eightball when a quad hits.

BobDancer
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Post by BobDancer »

Assuming equal slot club benefits, you'll never convince me that for monetary reasons a 98.44% Joker Wild game is better that 99.54% Jacks or Better. Clone or no clone. Martingale or no Martingale. The most important factor money-wise is EV. While you're 'refining' your system, you're going to continue to lose. I suggest that you'll NEVER refine your system to make up for that 1.1% deficit between the games.

Not to mention that the JW game is MUCH MUCH more difficult to play well. Do you play Jk Tc 8h 6s 2h the same as you play Jk Tc 8h 6s 3h? Mistake if you do. There are are LOTS of decisions like these, and nothing close to being as difficult in JoB.

Quads make up more than 14% of the return in the JW game, while less than 6% in JoB. Concentrate on these, as you appear to be doing, and you'll come to a misguided conclusion. It not this one hand that is particularly important. It's the sum of all the hands.

I don't know how much you play, but it appears in excess of $200,000 a year coin-in. That's more than $2,000 extra in losses you're giving up if you're playing JW perfectly --- which I strongly suspect you' don't. The change of stakes along the way make no difference in your annual EV.

Back when we had someone here who regularly praised Martingale clones, I suggest that it was dangerous because there were people here who would be foolish enough to follow such a flawed betting system. It's very expensive to continue to do so.

I wish you well. I have no animosity towards you. I regret that I'm not able to dissuade you from that system. But you're an adult and entitled to make your own decisions, until you run out of money.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

I make very few mistakes on the game and realize that 1.1 or so is a lot to make up. My problem with job is I am so far underroyaled lifetime and lately, the quads are averaging one in over 80O hands I hope it is not the casino. I suspect not. Just bad luck. As to coin in it is between 1 and 2 million every year. Losses stay right around 2 percent, but maybe ten percent of my play is on 97 percent games. It may be short term, but the losses the last few months on Joker Kings for the same coin in, have been much less than JOB. The biggest hurdle is discipline and EV aside, I think that is the biggest hurdle for most vp players. I cannot remember the last session I was not ahead a hundred bucks or so playing my way, but unless I hit a hand pay, it vanishes by the end of a session. I know it is hard to believe, but I have only had one hand pay since August. I have never claimed to be a lifetime winner and in fact, always talk about the oposite. Ahead most sessions, yes, but not by the session end. Sessions average 12,000-15,000 coin in. 3 sessions per week. Just a few weeks off a year for family matters.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Just to finish up the above, for the Moment, probably due to covid, the casino is being pretty generous with free play and a few other benefits. Free play is running at about 1 percent of coin in. This Saturday, there is a 250 gift card and nominal gifts for Soar level players. The one percent in free play leaves me with just a bit over .5 percent I am giving up to the casino on the Joker Kings game. Let’s call it 1 percent due to some minimal mistakes and stupid plays I know are incorrect. I think most everyone does a couple of those a session on a hunch. If my coin in is 1,500,000 for the year, I am giving up 15,000 a year of my own money. For that 15,000 I get to stay in beautiful rooms or suites about 120 nights a year. I get unlimited free food in the lounge and maybe another thousand bucks in what they call perk points that I buy my gas with. I only have an hours drive from home, so I lose little travel time. Due to Covid, shows and other things are out and most of the weekly gifts we give to charity. All things considered, I think as entertainment/recreation goes, this is a bargain. Not a moneymaker to be sure, but for someone including the Mrs who likes vp as much as we do, it is well worth the money. I forgot to mention one other thing that I should but am not taking advantage of. Unlimited free golf at their beautiful Country Club. It is about a 20 minute ride in the rural part of the state from the casino.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Just to give one an idea how beautiful and clean this place is, ( no smoking with covid situation ), this is a view just of the hallway to the high end Aspire rooms where I get to stay on the top 3 floors. Their website would have many more pics if anyone is ever interested.
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