Volatility - Jacks Or Better vs Triple Double Bonus

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TripleTriple
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Re: Volatility - Jacks Or Better vs Triple Double Bonus

Post by TripleTriple »

The first half of the graph looks like my "aggravated result" for 9/7 TDB Double Pay over the last month or so. Anyone who wants to experience volatility should have hitched along. For four trips it was as if I was minting my own money. Then yesterday I played over 6000 hands without a kicker hand. No Aces and only two 2,3,4 quads. Actually not too atypical comparing the frequency chart. There were periods where I began to ponder RNG conspiracy theories, but that was more a prolonged run of nothing on the deal and not drawing into any winners. Fortunately I had a previous similar experience so I accepted it for what it is but this time at a higher denomination, so it stung more like a yellow-jacket than a wasp.

dinghy wrote:
Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:03 am

I understand that most gamblers avoid JOB, but often the game menu will include a choice of either DDB or TDB at 9/6. In that situation, I don't get the attraction of TDB when DDB offers nearly the same thrills for much higher EV.
2000 coin for 2,3,4 w/k vs. 800. Much different thrill. Particularly when you get a few bunched together.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

TripleTriple wrote:
Mon Dec 07, 2020 6:16 pm
2000 coin for 2,3,4 w/k vs. 800. Much different thrill. Particularly when you get a few bunched together.
True story. Downside is, if the premiums aren't hitting, you get annihilated. Here's DDB vs TDB, both 9/6:

Image

The TDB is a clever design. If you show the games side by side to ordinary players, I assume most of them would pick TDB as the "better" choice.

Player422738
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Post by Player422738 »

ER-wise, both 9/6 DDB and TDB are weaker than 9/6 JOB. Short-term wise, DDB and TDB can get you up a lot because they are "heaven or hell" games, but you have to pay for getting those premium hands.

So the decision is pretty much based on your goals. If you play with an edge, since the coin-in is the most important factor, you may want to play the least volatile game like JOB. If you can't find an edge and you want to make money, go with volatile games gambling your luck, but it won't work every time. The negative edge won't get your up over long term, and 4AWK happens on certain days that you don't know when and where you can hit...

FAA
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Post by FAA »

After 100,000 hands, the bankrolls are pretty close but JOB is the winner with 2 royals.
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This is certainly excellent news for the slow and steady crowd.

TripleTriple
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Post by TripleTriple »

I took a longer look at hop's graph. Great post. If a picture is worth a thousand words, the graph is worth ten thousand- but don't worry, I won't go that far- just a few observations...
hophoofer wrote:
Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:10 pm
I simulated 100K hands. For the same dealt hand, the program plays perfect 9/6 JOB (99.54%) and 9/7 TDB (99.6%) strategies.
It's proper that the same dealt hands are used for both games of course, and while the number of hands is what some might say is or is approaching long-term results, it really represents only about 4% of the total dealt hands possible, we don't know which ones, and how many were repeated.
Waiting4RF wrote:
Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:41 pm
After 100,000 hands, the bankrolls are pretty close but JOB is the winner with 2 royals. What does another 100,000 hands look like?
JOB "wins" in this simulation. Over the loooong run though, with either many more hands or many more simulations of 100K, TDB will "win" overall/"win" more often. For me, a statistically significant number would be 10 million hands or if you prefer, and probably more interesting, 100 simulations of 100K.

The expected loss for each game over 100K hands is about 2000-2500 units (?). In this simulation, it looks like JOB = -3500 and TDB = -5000. Either slightly worse hands than average were dealt or the random draws were slightly below par for the games, or both. JOB expected # of royals, TDB has (9) 4000 credit hands, which is pretty much the expected number. Hard to tell for sure but looks like (13) 2000 credit hands. The expected would be about 16, so maybe -5000 units on account of that. By and large though, fairly typical scenario- if my numbers are correct.
billryan wrote:
Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:06 pm
They shoulda quit when they were ahead.
Good one! But when? They were both ahead 5 or 6 times, sometimes at the same time (maybe they carpooled to the computer lab). Naturally they should quit at their respective maximum, if they have the necessary special powers. I don't think we're looking at Jeane Dixon and Nostradamus here, so when do you think? I have my own guess, hindsight being 20/20...
FAA wrote:
Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:10 pm
After 100,000 hands, the bankrolls are pretty close but JOB is the winner with 2 royals.
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This is certainly excellent news for the slow and steady crowd.
Exactly. Except it's not news at all, let alone excellent. It's nearly what's expected except for JOB "winning" this one. 99.58 > 99.54, so for the loooong run play TDB (9/7)! Unless the added 0.04% is not worth the excitement:

Most mundane
1. Watch paint dry
2. Watch grass grow
3. Play Jacks or Better (no offense to those who do, just my opinion). If that keeps you awake, head for Keno or the Big Wheel (again, no offense).

Most exciting
1. Russian roulette. That's the wheel with five zeros.
2. Elizabeth Hurley (or desired substitute) knocking on your door asking to stay the night on account of car trouble. And can you help get her out of those drenched clothes...
3. Play Triple Double Bonus, preferably at dollar and up. Add exotic and expensive bonus feature when you get bored to supercharge the volatility and move it to #2....cause after all, you can play VP ALL night.

FAA
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Post by FAA »

Keno or the Big Wheel
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That's like making a check out to your favorite casino. I think I'll split my play between JOB and BP. I do need some measure of excitement. DDB and TDB are unfamiliar.

pokerpokerpoker
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Post by pokerpokerpoker »

Great stuff HH. Welcome back.

The way I look at it - if a player doesn't mind busting quick, and isn't playing for slot points; 9/7 TDB is the game to play if you want to turn a handful of hundos into a huge handful of hundos. JOB, unless you hit a royal, just slowly grinds you down.

FAA
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Post by FAA »

JOB, unless you hit a royal, just slowly grinds you down.
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It's a perfectly decent break even, watch grass growing/paint drying trip. Which beats quick bust disasters. I do need to diversify my play for bonus loot. I could do with a little BP and DW in the mix.

TripleTriple
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Post by TripleTriple »

Yes, it's great for those people who want long sessions without much risk to accumulate points and who are willing to wait a long time for the payoff. Or who are perfectly fine with net zero. That's fine if that's you. And that beats quick bust disaster. But it loses out to multi hand-pay epic day

I hate net zero (and Aces for 125). I seek resolution. I would rather a 51% bust/49% double the bankroll outcome. Of course I mind busting quick- who doesn't? But I know I will get nearly all of that money back in the long run. To me it's not even gambling, it's like making a deposit for a future withdraw, with a small bank fee incurred. And should I win more than expected, it's a loan with a pretty low interest rate. The fees and interest are the cost of doing business or the amusement ride depending on your viewpoint. And if you play it right you can have someone else pick up those charges.

Player422738
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Post by Player422738 »

Short-term result is not predictable. That’s the real problem.

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