Chase a progressive Royal? and strategy.

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2nd breakfast
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Chase a progressive Royal? and strategy.

Post by 2nd breakfast »

1st time poster here, so forgive me if this topic is posted elsewhere, but I did not see one.

I play DDB on $1 full pay progressive machines and have never "chased the royal". I have seen people do it though. I realize it takes a larger bankroll as you are not playing to keep playing but to win the RF and go home. My questions are:

1. If you do chase, do you have a target jackpot amount that you start playing that way. eg: Start chasing when the jackpot reaches $6,000 or x% of normal RF?

2. What hands do you throw away that goes against strategy?

For curious folks, I don't live in Vegas, but only where there are Indian casinos. Also, these particular machines do not give you player's points (bummer I know).

Thanks all. Do appreciate it.

billryan
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Post by billryan »

Chasing progressives is not for the faint of heart. There is nothing like playing a bad game for hours only to have a civilian sit down and hit it.

2nd breakfast
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Post by 2nd breakfast »

So very true.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

1. I would have a minimum jackpot requirement for sitting down to play. Once I begin play, I try to follow optimal strategy -- which varies by jackpot level. I know in advance that I may need to quit before the jackpot hits.

2. As the jackpot increases, royal draws move up the priority list. 2-to-a-royal with a T gains value against 2 unsuited high cards. For jackpots above 5000 or so, any 3-to-a-royal outranks a high pair J-K. I would carry either multiple strategy charts for different jackpot levels, or one strategy chart with break point notations for adjustments.

Is this a 9/6 or 10/6 DDB game? Progressive only on the royal?

2nd breakfast
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Post by 2nd breakfast »

dinghy - It's a 10/6 DDB game & yes the progressive is only for the RF. Thank you for your tips.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

2nd breakfast wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 8:05 pm
It's a 10/6 DDB game
Nice. Some people consider 9/6 to be full pay, that's why I was unsure.

I would want to measure the rate of jackpot increase because it factors into my EV and determines the likelihood of playable amounts developing.

With no slot club benefits and a volatile game, I personally would want at least 1% advantage. If the progressive moves at 0.25%, then I would play only above $5500. At that point the game is worth 100.77% + 0.25% for the meter move. I'm assuming the straight flush is shorted to 40 coins, although it doesn't matter a lot.

But with a 0.25% meter, the jackpot will not reach 5500 very often. If the meter is 0.5% or more, you have much better potential.

2nd breakfast
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Post by 2nd breakfast »

Yes the SF is 40 coins. There are 10 machines so the jackpot is often 6,000+. I managed to snag a jackpot of about 12,000 once. I will have to note the rate of jackpot increase next time I'm there - I hadn't thought about that.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

2nd breakfast wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 9:32 pm
I managed to snag a jackpot of about 12,000 once.
I love it. In that case, it's probably a fast-moving meter. If we assume 40k hands on average to hit a royal, that's 200k coin-in. At 0.25%, the jackpot would only increase $500 between royals and you'd basically never see a 5-figure jackpot.

If the meter is 1%, then by my criteria the game would be playable any time at any jackpot amount.

I recall Mickey Crimm discussed progressives as a guest on the Gambling with an Edge podcast, February 11th. He mentioned WinStar, which I think had just downgraded its best progressives. WinStar had 99.73% NSUD with a 0.5% meter, and may have had two or more banks unlinked to each other so you could play whichever was higher.

Somewhere else I think he found Almost Positive Deuces Wild (99.96%) with a good meter.

Good luck at the machines! You should probably avoid giving any geographical details if you want to keep the game secret.

FAA
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Post by FAA »

I love how you actively fan the flame and pursue the RF the higher it gets. It makes sense and I hope I can remember that strategy.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

With appropriate strategy adjustments, royals do come more quickly as the jackpot goes up. But they're still rare occurrences.

Here are the cycles between royals for various jackpot amounts, assuming 10/6/40 DDB and optimal strategy:

4000 (reset) = 41,088 hands
6000 = 34,775
8000 = 32,435
12,000 = 31,565
40,000 = 28,184
1,000,000 = 23,415

As a solo player, that's why I say I'm always prepared to quit before the royal hits. I won't be happy about it, but if I refuse to quit I may be stuck playing 24 hours or more depending on how many other players are active at the bank.

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