About multi strike 9/6 JOB

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advantage playe
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Re: About multi strike 9/6 JOB

Post by advantage playe »

New2vp wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:07 pm
advantage playe wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 7:59 am
can anyone compute the variance of multi strike full pay job ? Maybe New2vp can since he is a silicon based life force , just kidding New2vp lol . I am not smart enough to compute it !!
Hey AP, no silicon, just a hobbyist arguably devoting too much time to video poker. If this were any other base game, I may only venture to give a rough estimate of the variance, but I put together a spreadsheet for the variance of MS 9-6 JoB some time ago, so I'm happy to share.

I remember being enamored with this game (maybe 20 years ago?) when Bob Dancer suggested how to put strategies together more or less by hand using WinPoker adding 6, 4, and 2 coins to the 1x, 2x, and 4x non-free-pass level win amounts. Later, with other software that would accept non-integer amounts, I calculated that add-ons of 5.9367, 3.9560, and 1.9909 were a bit more precise to use for a max-EV strategy.

It takes some time to calculate variance using Excel and four instances of the Wizard of Odds Strategy Calculator. There may be other ways to calculate it, but the way I did it requires a listing of all the possible total wins (summing the wins on the four lines) along with their corresponding probabilities. If I didn't make any errors, I found 1921 possible outcomes. Only 185 of those possibilities have more than one chance in a million of occurring on any one bet. These 185 values are responsible for more than 99.99% of all amounts to be won (including zero coins) on a single bet.

Also, in specifying the variance, I think it is more instructive to make comparisons with respect to regular 9-6 JoB than just to state a number. You can probably find 19.5147 for the variance of regular 9-6 JoB. Lots of software and practitioners have computed this, so it may be a good place to start. For MS 9-6 JoB, my calculation of variance is only 20.9959. Hmmm ... when thinking about the relative bankroll swings between the two games, it may seem that such a number is not nearly large enough, but let's examine the units involved. In each case, the units are the somewhat cryptic "squared bets." If we want to have a better understanding, we may want to factor in the difference in bet size, 5 coins vs. 20 coins. But since we are dealing with "squared" units, the comparison is actually between 25 squared coins and 400 squared coins.

Regular JoB variance in terms of "squared coins" is 5^2 x 19.5147 = 487.8669 squared coins. This can be contrasted with MS JoB variance of 20^2 x 20.9959 = 8398.3535 squared coins, more than 17 times bigger. I think squared units are a bit difficult for most intuitions to grasp, so I would suggest using standard deviations in coins to compare relative volatility between two games because the units for standard deviations are just plain old "coins." Doing that (by taking the square root of the previous numbers), you will get 22.0877 coins for regular 9-6 JoB and 91.6425 for MS. That comparative ratio is 4.15, which is just a little more than the ratio of the bet sizes, 5 coins to 20.

Hope this makes your day better ... best of luck.
Thanks alot New2vp !! oh I meant to say silicon life form not force !! again thank you !!

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Awesome New2vp. I wonder how many people out there even remember The Horta. It was a nice creature after all.

Carcounter
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Post by Carcounter »

I've mentioned this before, but the 9/6 multi strikes at Borgata seem to be very very streaky, more than they should be. I've gone 12 or 15 dud hands in a row where I can't get off the bottom line, then have seemingly miraculous connections to winning hands come out of nowhere. On Friday, I was getting hammered, down about $ 500 in the first hour, then the turn around happened. Dealt 4 Jacks on third line, then dealt 4 4's on top line etc. Within the next hour I went from down 500 to up 600. Cashed out. Felt like it was about to go cold after going from 2600 credits to 2400 credits in a flash.

advantage playe
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Post by advantage playe »

Always felt to me that this is a high variance game ! I say FELT . We should go by the REAL not the FEEL !!

advantage playe
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Post by advantage playe »

advantage playe wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:49 am
Always felt to me that this is a high variance game ! I say FELT . We should go by the REAL not the FEEL !!
remember u r playing 5 dollars a tug in this game even though its a quarter game ! when playing fullpay job for dollars , 5 dollars a tug, u can very easily go down 500 dollars or ALOT more !!

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Don’t I know that. Especially in the last couple of months.

advantage playe
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Post by advantage playe »

I recall one trip to mt.airy apx 4 years ago when they had full pay job for dollars , now minimum is 2 dollars so 10 dollars a tug. anyway in apx 3 hours I was down apx 2500 dollars , I do play very fast ! went to buffet to eat , came back and hit a 4000 royal to bail me out as they say but still could have went on to lose another 2500 dollars !! play for apx 40 years apx 700,000 hands per year and most things will occur, including a dealt sequential royal 10 j q k a of spades at borgata apx 5 years ago !!

TripleTriple
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Post by TripleTriple »

advantage playe wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:02 am
I recall one trip to mt.airy apx 4 years ago when they had full pay job for dollars , now minimum is 2 dollars so 10 dollars a tug. anyway in apx 3 hours I was down apx 2500 dollars , I do play very fast ! went to buffet to eat , came back and hit a 4000 royal to bail me out as they say but still could have went on to lose another 2500 dollars !! play for apx 40 years apx 700,000 hands per year and most things will occur, including a dealt sequential royal 10 j q k a of spades at borgata apx 5 years ago !!
Congrats on the dealt Spade royal! And what did it pay?

advantage playe
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Post by advantage playe »

1000 Dollars , was playing quarters 1.25 a tug. no bonus for dealt or sequential royal !

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Great job no matter how long ago. I think I only had one sequential many years ago on a 2 cent one eyed jacks machine at Mohegan. I really miss those even with the poor paytables. Allowed bets up to 100 units. A Matingale players dream. Memory fades. Now I’m not sure if I had others, but I never got paid extras

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