Figuring EV on carnival style games?

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pokerforme
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Figuring EV on carnival style games?

Post by pokerforme »

Played some “Ult X Gold” at the casino for the first time and thought game was plus ev even at the poor nickel pay tables but unsure exactly how to calculate it. Nickel 3 handed DDB, costs 30 nickels per hand. 7/5 pay tables the twist was for the royal it payed 8000. Then all the quads were maxed at 4X payouts as follows- aces 4X so with a kicker 8000 w/o 3200. Small quads 4X so kicker 3200 w/o 1600. 4X JKQ 1000. 5-9 4X 1000. Customer walked with me playing game next to her and I jumped on thinking it was too juicy. Of course trips, straight, flush, and FH had some multipliers also but wasn’t considering this for possible ev because it varies. Anyone have a idea how to figure so many factors at once? Thanks in advance, will post net results
Last edited by pokerforme on Sun Jul 10, 2022 2:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

pokerforme
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Post by pokerforme »

Played for close to 3 hours was mostly going up then hit the royal. Up to $570 on $100 buy in played all the way down to 425 hitting many many quads but never the aces. Trying to get them and kept resetting the multipliers to 4X. Was just thinking about stopping at $400 at around $425 when I was dealt the aces. Drew 2/3 kicker! Decided to play a few hands to spin it off and hit other quad 4X. Cashed out $1400 and walked. Crazy game!

Tedlark
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Post by Tedlark »

Crazy game but fantastic results for you.

Congrats.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

pokerforme wrote:
Sun Jul 10, 2022 2:29 pm
Of course trips, straight, flush, and FH had some multipliers also but wasn’t considering this for possible ev because it varies.
Nice hits!

An analyzer can approximate the EV. For example, if you only have the quad multipliers, the payouts would be:

8000/250/8000/3200/3200/1600/1000/35/25/20/15/5/5 = 156% / 2 (because of the double bet) = 78%.

It's probably not as simple as that because you have to consider the value of boosted multipliers as you play, offset by disappearing multipliers as you hit. But it's an approximation.

I believe the big value comes from multipliers near the bottom of the pay table. Assume the entire board is clear except the 3oak is maxed at 4x:

8000/250/2000/800/800/400/250/35/25/20/60/5/5 = 170% / 2 = 85%.

The 3oak multiplier is more valuable than all the quad multipliers combined.

pokerforme
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Post by pokerforme »

Thanks Tedlark. Thanks for the response dinghy, I see what you are saying and kinda think I was way negative then lol. Yes the bottom actually has a lot to do imo also, they seed all the payouts and float you to larger hits. I even did the unimaginable and kept a aces full FH because it was dealt and was 8X times 3 hands for 840 coins. It was early into my play and needed the seed money. The constant wash of the bottom 4 multipliers was keeping me afloat almost by themselves for the last 45 minutes to a hour. I’m not a huge fan of carnival games in general but have scooped up some ult x leftovers here and there so have never put effort into % ev. Thanks for the math and the response

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

You were probably >100% at least some of the time.

It's a rare game. Only 63 machines nationwide according to the lookup.

If I found one that looked good, I think I would furtively run the analysis on my phone. But then as the multipliers change, you have to recheck. And if you want to play each hand optimally, that's another calculation.

There was some discussion at WoV that you wouldn't necessarily want to play computer-optimal based on the current pay table. Instead, you would need to consider the multiplier interactions or some such. I quit reading at that point. :geek:

pokerforme
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Post by pokerforme »

Wow dinghy I went and read that thread on the WOV site and now I see that the version of the game varies widely. They are talking about 9X multipliers on 4oak etc. This machine capped it at 4X! I didn’t look threw the different pay tables or values by game or hands played which seem to set these things. Hopefully soon I will return and take a look threw it all to get a better understanding. Indeed the math guys there give a insight into the complexity of a moving target. I quickly learned to vary my strategy on certain draws to not hit certain hands or would shift what I was doing some. Once had a small 3oak and didn’t hold the kicker and it cost me when I hit. That didn’t happen again! Also I avoided certain draws when possible trying to double or triple draw straights, flushes etc or wait for dealt hands when the multipliers were higher. I look forward to my next few trips where I might find this game to see if it’s restricted for higher multipliers for 4oak etc. Not sure if I will play it again but could find something even better it seems.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

pokerforme wrote:
Sun Jul 10, 2022 9:08 pm
Wow dinghy I went and read that thread on the WOV site and now I see that the version of the game varies widely. They are talking about 9X multipliers on 4oak etc. This machine capped it at 4X!
To see the multiplier tables, you can look at the play-for-fun games here at videopoker dot com.

Basically the 4oak multiplier maximums are inverse to the payout tendencies. JoB (worst 4oak payouts) gets 9x maximums. TTB (best 4oak payouts) gets 3x & 4x maximums.

When the multipliers are evenly applied across the board as in STP or Hot Roll, there are no variations. But because UX Gold only applies multipliers selectively on the pay table, the multipliers must be adjusted to keep all game themes within target EV ranges.

pokerpokerpoker
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Post by pokerpokerpoker »

I play it when the quads are all (or mostly) maxed out and the lower hands have some mults on them and I prefer BP or Deluxe.

With deluxe quads at 4x, it's like getting paid at the dollar level, $400, while playing 50cent denom (.25 X2).

One time Vman96 and I sat down at a pair of Ult X Gold and we, well mostly he, ran all the math on all the game/3,5,10 play/.05,.25 and .50 denoms. There were some 103-106% overlays, but nothing really juicy. And as mentioned above, once trips reset the overlay usually is gone.

pokerforme
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Post by pokerforme »

Thanks pokerpoker. Yeah I have went back and hit them since then and I’m totally just vulturing when the multipliers are high especially on the lower end of the hands. Did very well on them at the dimes level just going threw and playing the good looking stuff then left. Going to look for them again next time in Nevada hoping for better pay tables

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