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Probability with one Joker
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:24 pm
by olds442jetaway
I used to be able to look this up, but can’t find a source anymore and have forgotten how to compute it. What is the probability of being dealt a quad in Joker kings and also the probability of being dealt 5 of a kind with the single Joker? Thanks. I know in regular poker without the joker it is over 4,000 to one to be dealt a quad, but am having a senior moment or two with the Joker in the deck.
Re: Probability with one Joker
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:40 pm
by dinghy
Assuming I'm not having a senior moment
, you can get the numbers by entering (into an analyzer) all zeroes as payouts.
Looks like 920 cycle for a quad, and almost impossible lol for a quint.
Re: Probability with one Joker
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:13 pm
by olds442jetaway
Thanks. The reason I asked is I plan to use the clone on DDS Joker Wild. The Mrs has been using it the last few sessions and doing well. It pays 160 for one after doubling which would be automatic after you see the first 4 cards. Actually then it would be 160 for 2. Since this a fast game, it looks like once an hour long term. Will see how it goes with a 200 buck losers bankroll.
Re: Probability with one Joker
Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2022 3:37 pm
by dinghy
Oh for a stud game, you wouldn't need to enter zeroes. Just the standard/doubled payouts into an analyzer should give you the correct probabilities.
Quads contribute about 17% to payback, wow. I hope you hit some quads.
Re: Probability with one Joker
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2023 4:50 pm
by asteroid
olds442jetaway wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 2:24 pm
I used to be able to look this up, but can’t find a source anymore and have forgotten how to compute it. What is the probability of being dealt a quad in Joker kings and also the probability of being dealt 5 of a kind with the single Joker? Thanks. I know in regular poker without the joker it is over 4,000 to one to be dealt a quad, but am having a senior moment or two with the Joker in the deck.
olds442jetaway, the probability of being
dealt a five of kind is 0.00000453. And 0.00108723 for a
dealt four of a kind.
Re: Probability with one Joker
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2023 9:32 pm
by olds442jetaway
Thanks
Re: Probability with one Joker
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2023 9:42 pm
by advantage playe
Nice math work Asteroid ! I was DEALT a sequential royal 10 j q k a of spades at borgota around 10 years ago. rough est. 4 million to 1. Am I close Asteroid ??
Re: Probability with one Joker
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2023 9:44 pm
by advantage playe
Anyone is free to jump in !
Re: Probability with one Joker
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2023 10:58 pm
by asteroid
advantage playe wrote: ↑Sat Apr 08, 2023 9:42 pm
Nice math work Asteroid ! I was DEALT a sequential royal 10 j q k a of spades at borgota around 10 years ago. rough est. 4 million to 1. Am I close Asteroid ??
Advantage Playe, the chance of being dealt a
spade royal flush is 1 in 2,598,960. There are 120 arrangements of the spade royal flush of which one is a sequential from lowest to highest (10 to Ace). So the chance of being dealt a sequential spade royal flush is 1 in 311,875,200 (120*2,598,960).
Re: Probability with one Joker
Posted: Sat Apr 08, 2023 11:26 pm
by advantage playe
Wow , thanks Asteroid. I knew it was unlikely but not astronomically unlikely ! should have used that hit to play powerball, if thats allowed. by the way I won 1000 dollars , was playing quarters 1.25 per hand. no complaints.