Cost of ignoring FP&SP in JOB ?

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tech58
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Cost of ignoring FP&SP in JOB ?

Post by tech58 »

According to THE WIZARD if you ignore flush penalty and straight penalty cards in JOB the ER drops from 99.54% to 99.52%, or the loss of one total bet every 3805 hands.

Now I know full well that a purist attitude is correct and they would fault anyone who takes that road.
But I guess my personal choice may be a concession to old age. To quote my favorite T-shirt: "Of all the things I have lost I miss my mind the most". Not complaining here, because for several years now I have been burning up brain cells that I was actually using.

My thought is that maybe there are other possible factors that might mitigate the cost outlined above.
Does simplification of strategy possibly lead to fewer errors? Saving one error in 3805 hands would easily make it up. Speeding up play a positive or a negative?

Anybody have any thoughts on this subject or any correction of errors in this post?

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

tech58 wrote:
Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:24 pm
But I guess my personal choice may be a concession to old age.
Speaking for myself, a nitpicky strategy absolutely slows down my preparation and play. Which is bad.

So I have to decide where to draw the line. For a 0.02% cost, I prefer the simplified strategy. But if the cost were 0.1%, I would feel compelled to play the advanced strategy. Some other games are definitely in the >0.1% camp, such as almost any joker wild variant.

The decision could depend on details of the specific play. Maybe it's a high-limit game with only a 0.2% overall edge. In that case, every little hundredth may be important. I usually prefer lower stakes with higher edges.

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

The only game I know and have the specifics on is JOB. Your comment about high-limit games closer to 100% seems very true.
I agree with you on the bad element of "nitpicky". Feeling relaxed and confident in your play has to have an affect on accuracy. Is there a trade-off here? Most certainly. But my gut feeling is it is not giving away the total of .02%.
Any other factors to consider?

TheDirector
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Post by TheDirector »

Don't you all wish Florida Phil was around to comment on this one?!? Short coin, baby!

davidearl
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Post by davidearl »

Nope, that's a whole point :lol: . I agree with Dinghy, I won't lose any sleep over it.
The only thing I've noticed over the years is, I play a lot better when the casino's smoke free. Since Covid, two of my three best years!

wildman49
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Post by wildman49 »

davidearl wrote:
Sat Aug 27, 2022 4:23 am
Nope, that's a whole point :lol: . I agree with Dinghy, I won't lose any sleep over it.
The only thing I've noticed over the years is, I play a lot better when the casino's smoke free. Since Covid, two of my three best years!
Have not seen you at the casino in a while? I did take most of Aug off, got to beat up in July.
Seems very slow at Eagle, my buddy said he has a friend that has not been there in 4 months, got a post card for $35 free play, they must be hurting.

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

TheDirector wrote:
Fri Aug 26, 2022 5:54 pm
Don't you all wish Florida Phil was around to comment on this one?!? Short coin, baby!
I get the Florida Phil yucker, but Short coin? Never for me. Or was that FP's thing,i don't remember.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

I may have been unclear up above. When I mention a 0.2% "overall edge," that's including game EV plus estimated slot club value. For example, 99.5% JoB + 0.7% slot club = 0.2% edge.

Slot club value can go considerably higher than that.

I don't worry much about accuracy because vp is not a timed game. I can sit and stare at my strategy chart for as long as I wish to ensure I'm making the correct hold.

davidearl
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Post by davidearl »

wildman49 wrote:
Sat Aug 27, 2022 4:58 am
davidearl wrote:
Sat Aug 27, 2022 4:23 am
Nope, that's a whole point :lol: . I agree with Dinghy, I won't lose any sleep over it.
The only thing I've noticed over the years is, I play a lot better when the casino's smoke free. Since Covid, two of my three best years!
Have not seen you at the casino in a while? I did take most of Aug off, got to beat up in July.
Seems very slow at Eagle, my buddy said he has a friend that has not been there in 4 months, got a post card for $35 free play, they must be hurting.
I usually don't get there until around "last call" or later. Usually about 5 hrs. 4 times this week.

Yes, the summer crowd has died down. Only time they're busy is concert nights.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Virtually all of the regular VP players I have known for the last 25 years at Mohegan Sun are gone. I can usually get almost any machine I want though for the most part it is late evening through early morning. I guess some are too old to play anymore or have passed on, but I don’t even see the crowd 10 or 20 years younger than me. At least when I am here, I see virtually 0 vp players under 40. I know it is probably just coincidence, but nobody I talk to is winning either and the slot attendants are just hanging around meaning no tips of course. In the big picture I don’t worry when I play quarter or dollar games of making a low error mistake by choice now and then.

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