Am I alone in this?

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
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snax110
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Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:41 am

Am I alone in this?

Post by snax110 »

When I go to the casino, I almost exclusively play Deuces Wild with the best pay tables I can find, which promises to pay back 99.8%. I also know all the strategy and I play as perfectly as a human can. Yet, every single time I play, I lose hundreds of dollars.

Sometimes, immediately after sitting down I'll get lucky and win some hands that put me a few dollars ahead. But inevitably as I continue to play, it takes all the money. It doesn't take long either. I can easily lose $100 in an hour or so if I play fast, even on nickels. Lose another hundred, move up a denomination, lose another couple hundred (this time a bit faster). Start playing five play to try and get even, but those games are 1000x worse so the money drains almost instantly. Hit the -$1000 mark and realize that your only hope of getting even is hitting a royal, so you leave and do it again next time, probably sometime next week when you're stupid enough to go along with your friend when he suggests going to the casino for a few hours.

So I'm guessing most people on here know the strategy and pay tables really well, and are intelligent players. Do you have a different experience? Are my friends and I just the most unlucky people in town, or....perhaps the 99% thing just not true? I understand it's 99% over a long period of time, but that's the point. It doesn't keep you at 99% return, not even for a second. It just eats the money. And this is a whole other discussion, but it never used to be like this. A few years ago the machines in town (I live in Las Vegas) behaved completely differently. What's going on here? Any insights?

onemoretry
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Post by onemoretry »

snax110 wrote:
Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:43 am
When I go to the casino, I almost exclusively play Deuces Wild with the best pay tables I can find, which promises to pay back 99.8%. I also know all the strategy and I play as perfectly as a human can. Yet, every single time I play, I lose hundreds of dollars.
You have never, never in your life had a winning session?

dinghy
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Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:24 am

Post by dinghy »

snax110 wrote:
Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:43 am
So I'm guessing most people on here know the strategy and pay tables really well, and are intelligent players.
You must be new here.
And this is a whole other discussion, but it never used to be like this. A few years ago the machines in town (I live in Las Vegas) behaved completely differently.
Sorry, I have to laugh because the people who live in Indian country think Vegas is a utopia of ever-vigilant regulation to ensure fairness at all times.

Reality is you'll find complaints from gamblers wherever they play.

Kasfeldt7
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Post by Kasfeldt7 »

snax110 wrote:
Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:43 am
When I go to the casino, I almost exclusively play Deuces Wild with the best pay tables I can find, which promises to pay back 99.8%. I also know all the strategy and I play as perfectly as a human can. Yet, every single time I play, I lose hundreds of dollars.
You might find this helpful. It's calculated for JoB which hits RF more frequently due to strategy differences in play. But it'll give you an idea of where you should be at. It's based off the "Poisson Distribution" (I'm not a math guy, if you are you might want to look it up for yourself). It can tell you the probability of RFs you can expect per cycles (40,000 hands per cycle):

This shows the odds of NOT hitting a RF per # of cycles:

# of Cycles Probability %
1 36.8
2 13.5
3 4.98
4 1.83
5 .67
6 .25
7 .09
9 .03

As you can see, you have almost a 5% chance of NOT hitting the RF after 3 cycles (120,000 hands). That's 1 in 20.

I recall reading an article from Henry Tamburin that he once went over 300,000 hands without a RF! Yikes!

Best of luck!

olds442jetaway
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Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm

Post by olds442jetaway »

Well……I hate to say this, but as I have posted about before, I have gone over 600,000 hands twice and not hit a Royal. I actually also just broke my streak of sessions without quad Deuces last night. That’s seven now or about 50,000 hands. I am on one of the worst cold cycles in recent memory on 99 percent machines, yet my Mrs is hitting great hands almost every session on nickels DDB with horrible pay tables. Unfortunately, it is the nature of the beast and is totally unpredictable.

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