Video Poker Forum

olds442jetaway wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 27, 2023 10:12 pm

The exact cycles I think vary. I was just using the example of what happens to me after 8 hours of bad hands.

It's a critical distinction imo. In theory we have a 5-minute hot cycle occurring every 8 hours. You implied that you would bet small initially because the hot cycle is unlikely to hit in the first 5 minutes of a session. And by extension, you would bet big late in a session when the hot cycle is overdue.

But it's more likely (imo) that the hot cycle doesn't run on a schedule and is instead completely unpredictable. It could occur twice in 1 hour, or not at all in 16 hours.

This is why these rigging discussions never go anywhere because the observations are inevitably tangled up with superstition. For my own practical purposes, the "first 5 minutes" of a session is merely the next 5 minutes of my lifetime session.

But all is not lost. If these unnaturally intense hot cycles really do exist, then we should be able to detect when they start, and quickly jack up our bets to take advantage. The key is "quickly." I want to bet minimum when I don't have the advantage, and maximum when I do.

"Hot cycles" inevitably exist in any random distribution. You don't know when they will start or end until they are in the past.

Is your "hot streak" going to be 3 hands or 30 hands? You don't know. Go ahead and step up after 3 or 5 "hot" hands. Sometimes it will work, sometimes it won't. When it works, you will convince yourself you were right. When it doesn't you will blame the machine. You won't be the first to try to time your bet for a bigger payout and you certainly won't be the last. I think anyone but the most disciplined players does this from time to time. I do it for fun, or based on my remaining bankroll and goals for the session. But never do I think I'm fooling the machine or anyone else in doing so. Whether I succeed is entirely up to chance. Chance, of course, seems to hate me.

You people still don't realize that those supposed "hot and cold cycles" would be totally different if you hit the buttons at different times.

Blame YOUR OWN bad or good "luck" or timing for those "cycles" and not the game.

To Ed and JS. We the "people" know all that full well.

But logic aside, we are simply engaging in a little harmless commiseration.

Probably be better after cocktail hour.

I hear you. I always know a "rigged" machine when I see one. It's the one that took my money.

There you go Ed. Pull up a chair. It will help fight off that, "Gimme a sledge hammer feeling"

Yes, you never know when they will hit. Of course that is all part of randomness. However, since these really good hands occur over time after hundreds or thousands of hands, it makes sense that most times one will need a Marathon session before one appears. It is quite probable that everything is still random. I would feel better if the machines acted for me like they used to some years ago

olds442jetaway wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 28, 2023 5:25 pm

However, since these really good hands occur over time after hundreds or thousands of hands, it makes sense that most times one will need a Marathon session before one appears.

Marathon session, or an accumulation of shorter sessions.

I think maybe the most extraordinary aspect of Bizarro World is that you play 9 1/2 hour sessions.

My work ethic is not in your league.

That’s the whole thing. With that kind of time, I’d just focus on the 99.54% JOB progressive for four hours. Keeps you solvent and you may even hit it. Break, then another four hours of numbing boredom. Then try and make some actual money with 99.1% BP. But that exposure is so brief that you won’t get burned.

Have to stand and stretch a lot. Otherwise bad for circulation. Usually at the bar machines I stand most of the time. Of course stay hydrated. Won’t be able to keep this pace forever. That’s for sure.