Suggestions Please

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
BOOPSAHOY
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Re: Suggestions Please

Post by BOOPSAHOY »

Remember, if the grass is greener on the other side of the fence- water yours.

Good one faygo!

shadowman
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Post by shadowman »


P.S. Actually, you should probably just disregard anything I say. I have very little understanding of recreational play, and little to offer on the subject. I'm trying though. It's been my job for so long, I've lost sight of the other side of the fence. How's the grass?


 I think this is the crux of the matter. This site is composed of all types of players from very knowledgeable, math only followers to purely gut level decision makers. No one should "disregard" what you say. However, just try to understand that a lot of folks have different motivations. Viva la difference ...

EDC1977
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Post by EDC1977 »

  If you're an AP who does this for primary income, more power to you. No one other person can see the math balance out than you can. I rarely set foot on the casino floor but knowing I have a slight edge makes my time there that much more pleasant. Many people go for many different reasons. Obviously, ours are opposite. I have no intentions of quitting my night job. I don't play enough to get the comps others do but am grateful for what they offer me.

  If you're serious about what you play, don't diss the casual/recreational player who isn't there to make that extra nth of a percent balance their month. Some of us are there strictly to have a good time. 

faygo
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Post by faygo »

I, myself, appreciate Frank's input . Although I only get to a casino 4-5 times a year, I make every effort to play the best paytables and highest return with the best strategy I can muster as senile as I am. How is that for a run on sentence?

New2vp
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Post by New2vp »


I, myself, appreciate Frank's input . Although I only get to a casino 4-5 times a year, I make every effort to play the best paytables and highest return with the best strategy I can muster as senile as I am. How is that for a run on sentence?faygo, so where does AC Joker fit into the high return strategy?  Do you only play when there's a progressive?  I've never been to Atlantic City; don't the casinos have something better than 97.19%?

faygo
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Post by faygo »

AH, so you are calling me on my real game I play in AC?  I play the 3 line Joker with a progressive that starts at $50,000 and usually hits in the range of $70,000 to $80,000. Granted this progressive requires a hit of 5 Aces on all lines, but it is attractive to me when it is at that $80,000 mark.
The VP programs I have don't have any way for me to figure in the hand for the progressive requirement. BD had a column a number of years ago where he came up with the change in the return brought about by the progessive. As I recall it didn't thrill him.
On single line my games of choice are 9/6 DDB and 10/7 DB.
 
They are all .25  games. They do have a $1 progressive 3 line but it requires a $9 bet. That progressive starts at $100,000. Just too rich for my blood.
 
I stare at this for a long time before I leave for the casino.
 

New2vp
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Post by New2vp »



The VP programs I have don't have any way for me to figure in the hand for the progressive requirement. BD had a column a number of years ago where he came up with the change in the return brought about by the progessive. As I recall it didn't thrill him.
On single line my games of choice are 9/6 DDB and 10/7 DB.
 
They are all .25  games.That's quite a hand and quite a bit to payoff on a quarter machine.  At least they don't make you land the aces in any particular order!I don't recall the column that you mentioned, though I probably read it at one time or another. Since I picked on you, I'll give you what I think are the calculations.  I don't have any specialized software for this hand either, but here's what Excel and I think:At $50,000, the EV is 98.5054%; at $80,000 the EV is 99.3436%.














At
$50,000
or 
  200,000
quarters
 
 
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


 
 
Chance 
Combos
 
 
 
 


 
 
on
draw 
out
of 
Extra EV
Probability
 
Extra EV


 
 
1 in
2,869,685
dealt hand
of final hand
 
in game


When holding
5
 
1
1
188000
3.4847E-07
 
0.013102


When holding
4
 
110592
240
1.699942
7.56229E-10
 
0.000028


When holding
3
 
1435249152
10416
0.000131
2.52895E-12
 
0.000000


When holding
2
 
5.17413E+12
78558
3.63E-08
5.29077E-15
 
0.000000


When holding
1
 
7.36707E+15
288
2.55E-11
1.36227E-20
 
0.000000


When holding
0
 
5.02045E+18
432
3.74E-14
2.99852E-23
 
0.000000


Base game EV
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.971923


Total EV for
game
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.985054


 
 
1
chance in 
 
 
     2,863,450
 
 

To get to break even, I think the progressive has to be ready to pay out $103,496.50 or 413,986 quarters.  I can understand why Dancer would not be too thrilled at any amount, since it's nearly a 3 million to 1 shot to qualify for the jackpot.  That might take a while, even if you play very fast!







At
$80,000
or 
      320,000
quarters
 
 
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


 
 
Chance 
Combos
 
 
 
 


 
 
on
draw 
out
of 
Extra EV
Probability
 
Extra EV


 
 
1 in
2,869,685
dealt hand
of final hand
 
in game


When holding
5
 
1
1
308000
3.4847E-07
 
0.021466


When holding
4
 
110592
240
2.785012
7.56229E-10
 
0.000047


When holding
3
 
1435249152
10416
0.000215
2.52895E-12
 
0.000000


When holding
2
 
5.17413E+12
78558
5.95E-08
5.29077E-15
 
0.000000


When holding
1
 
7.36707E+15
288
4.18E-11
1.36227E-20
 
0.000000


When holding
0
 
5.02045E+18
432
6.13E-14
2.99852E-23
 
0.000000


Base game EV
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.971923


Total EV for
game
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.993436


 
 
1
chance in 
 
 
     2,863,450
 
 

I calculated the extra EV based on subtracting the 12,000 coin "normal" win from the progressive win.  So, the $50,000 figures assume 188,000 extra coins and the $80,000 figures assume 308,000 extra coins.  The extra EV of any hold is too small to affect any hold strategy beyond what one would hold anyway.  I'm fairly certain of all the numbers except the number of times that one would hold a pair of aces, which I estimated at 1/13 the number of times that you hold any natural pair.  This estimation will not affect the overall game EV as the extra expected from 2-card holds is 0.000000000 (and non-zero in the 10th decimal place.)Good luck and be sure to post the winning hand when you get it. 

New2vp
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Post by New2vp »


After taking a quick nap, I realized that I can get a better estimate of the number of times that one holds a pair of aces by calculating that there are 103,776 natural hands with exactly two aces in them and then subtracting out the number of each of these hands that also had two aces:  full houses, 4-card royals, 4-card straight flushes, 4-card flushes, two pair hands, 3-card straight flushes with 543-JT9 and 432 and 5x2-Qx9, and 3-card royals with no aces.That left me with 81,504 hands where we would draw to a pair of aces. As I suggested in the earlier post, the exact number makes no difference.  This figure does not change the breakeven progressive amount by even a single quarter and does not affect the EVs that I calculated earlier until the 12th decimal place for the $50,000 jackpot and the 11th for the $80,000 jackpot.

BOOPSAHOY
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Post by BOOPSAHOY »

AH, so you are calling me on my real game I play in AC?  I play the 3 line Joker with a progressive that starts at $50,000 and usually hits in the range of $70,000 to $80,000. Granted this progressive requires a hit of 5 Aces on all lines, but it is attractive to me when it is at that $80,000 mark.
The VP programs I have don't have any way for me to figure in the hand for the progressive requirement. BD had a column a number of years ago where he came up with the change in the return brought about by the progessive. As I recall it didn't thrill him.
On single line my games of choice are 9/6 DDB and 10/7 DB.
 
They are all .25  games. They do have a $1 progressive 3 line but it requires a $9 bet. That progressive starts at $100,000. Just too rich for my blood.
 
I stare at this for a long time before I leave for the casino.
 


This is one of my dreams as well! I saw a guy get dealt the 5 aces playing nickels (in what used to be called the Nickel Oasis at the Taj)-the progressive was around $75000! He was a few machines down from me and all I heard was HOLY SH*T!

faygo
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Post by faygo »

new2vp, thanks for taking the bait. My brain is way too small to have figured out the return with the odd progressive. Somehow, I inately felt that you coudn't resist the challenge.
I have printed off your response so it will always be readily available to me next time I need it.

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