Video Poker Forum

It seems to me that with a sufficiently large bankroll, one can win against machines that have a house edge with perfect play, just by stopping when one is ahead.Eg if a machine has a 1% advantage, since the variance is so high, presumably one will be ahead and behind at many times in the process of getting to the 99% level. Is this sort of thinking correct and how do I calculate the bankroll needed for this strategy, assuming an amt bet per hand and number of hands played/minute?

You're wrong.

Most of the time, you can quit when you're ahead, but on a negative machine, there will be some times where you'll fall into a deep enough hole by getting off to a bad start that can wipe out even gigantic bankrolls. These occurrences will outweigh your many small wins.

Also in a practical sense, this sounds like a bad strategy for anyone who wants to enjoy themselves. Are you going to seriously quit after one hand if you make a profitable hand to start with? Gas money will likely outweigh your winnings there...

This is getting into a controversial topic here.  Dancer will tell you that stop limits (quitting when you are ahead or behind) don't work. Of course a professional wouldn't play a negative expectation machine anyway, so it's kind of a mute point.  I don't believe banging away with the same bet on a negative expectation game will ever be a winner, no matter how large a bankroll.  In fact, the larger the bankroll the more you will lose.  I believe the only way you have any chance at beating the casino on a negative expectation machine is to consistently win jackpots at larger denominations than you normally play.   There are a couple of ways you can put this plan into action, all are pretty easy to understand.  They all boil down to the same idea. Play 90% of your hands at "X" denomination (insert the number you are most comfortable with) and play 10% at a denomination that is at least 5 times higher.  When you hit a jackpot on the bigger machines, put that money in a place where you can't play it that day and go back to playing the lower denomination.  It takes great discipline to pull this off because a big win feels sooo good and you want more.  Think about this and see if you can make it work for you.

Vman nailed it but this may help understand the situation better. Assume you can do what you said. That means you can play and eventually win on any negative game. So, what if that happens and you state that's your long term stop point and you collect you profit. You then turn around 3 times and start the process all over again. Obviously, if it works, it should work again ... and again ... and again. This means you really are playing no differently than any other player but somehow you are able to win over time on a negative game.

But, simple math shows that is NOT possible. Hence, your assumption that you can play until you get ahead must be wrong.

I totally agree.  In infinity, the negative odds will cause you to be a long term loser. The math says there is absolutely no way to beat a negative video poker machine long term.  On the other hand, if you die while you are ahead you beat the system...  

It may need not be a scientific survey, but how many posters here, have had any year in the last 5-6, where they were net postive on playing VP? Forget the benefits of hotels, planes, food, etc, just gambling. I know i have not had a positive net experience, since 2007.I do think money management can be helpful, but only to a point.  I am a recreational player, i do it for the fun, no different than any other recreational event that people do. I expect a negative financial experience. For me, it is a matter of whether the cost of the experience is worth it. Am i getting a good value for the money spent.  I cannot quote steve wynn exactly, but i have heard him say something to the effect that the only one who made money in a casino was the owner and he personally knew of no one, who had a long history of gambling, to be net positive.

This is getting into a controversial topic here.  Dancer will tell you that stop limits (quitting when you are ahead or behind) don't work. Of course a professional wouldn't play a negative expectation machine anyway, so it's kind of a mute point.  I don't believe banging away with the same bet on a negative expectation game will ever be a winner, no matter how large a bankroll.  In fact, the larger the bankroll the more you will lose.  I believe the only way you have any chance at beating the casino on a negative expectation machine is to consistently win jackpots at larger denominations than you normally play.   There are a couple of ways you can put this plan into action, all are pretty easy to understand.  They all boil down to the same idea. Play 90% of your hands at "X" denomination (insert the number you are most comfortable with) and play 10% at a denomination that is at least 5 times higher.  When you hit a jackpot on the bigger machines, put that money in a place where you can't play it that day and go back to playing the lower denomination.  It takes great discipline to pull this off because a big win feels sooo good and you want more.  Think about this and see if you can make it work for you.This strategy doesn't sound any different than what Vman96 stated does not work?

You will get many opinions about what works or doesn't work in video poker.  There is no way to get around the fact that the math says a negative machine is a loser no matter how you twist the calculations.  On the other hand, math has no value in calculating just plain dumb luck.   The problem most recreational gamblers have is they are hooked on the drug of hitting a jackpot.   When they hit one, they dive right in and give the money back to the casino and then some.  The casinos know this and use it against us.  I did this for years and never had a winning year.  One strategy is to learn to be happy playing small denominations 90% of the time then pocket the jackpots at the larger denominations.  There is no math that can predict luck... it just happens, but when it does you don't have to give it back.  Also, there is no magic strategy that will "guarantee" to make you a long term winner at video poker.  You need to use your head and not get caught up in the bells, pretty lights and prospect of riches.  It's real money you are playing with and what matters in the end is that you are getting your money's worth.  

  A guy was sitting next to me last night at Harrahs in Joliet, IL. He was playing 5 line .25 denomination DDB and, yes, he caught a royal. Oh well....
   Edited to add: I need to clarify the above. The player next to me was playing 5 hand .25 denomination DDB but he was only playing 1 coin a line. He caught a royal on 1 line only.  My bad and sorry for any confusion this may have caused.

Simply put, any given session, like any given HAND, can be a winner, but over the long haul, playing anything that is 99% or lower is going to pull you down into net loss territory.One POSSIBLE exception to this concept would be a machine that is something between 99.5% and 100% lending itself to a VERY small positive gain over a seemingly sustained period (say 6 or 7 months assuming correct play and all that jazz) or perhaps coming close to breaking even.    Looking back on my history during the time period 1994 thru around 2005 playing almost entirely in vegas during the good old days of 10/7 machines and 9/6 JOB being the standard starting point, I had a number of periods spanning between 5 to 9 months where I was profitable, and a several years where I somehow managed to win more than I lost (nothing earth shattering, and the comps back in the day were not as robust as they later became, at least not at the 25 cent level I consistently played).....but a sustained winning period like that has not happened since 2005 for me however.AS tedlark just pointed out, if you are lucky enough to hit a big enough win that you cant possibly lose fast enough (without going crazy by playing at a levele way beyond your usual) then of course, you can "win".   That is called luck, and I do not mean Andrew.