Split Card Poker Strategy for DDB Players

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
Vman96
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Re: Split Card Poker Strategy for DDB Players

Post by Vman96 »

An Ace Ace split card is worth more than a dealt flush? No way I'm guessing this. Are you fairly sure there isn't an error here? Seems a lot higher value for the split card than I would ever guess.

I have definitely played quite badly it looks like.



alpax
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Post by alpax »

An Ace Ace split card is worth more than a dealt flush? No way I'm guessing this. Are you fairly sure there isn't an error here? Seems a lot higher value for the split card than I would ever guess.

I have definitely played quite badly it looks like.




I played very badly too.

I also did not believe at first that the Ace-Ace Split Card was rated so high to a point where you discard a flush.

I looked at the individual report of the hand to verify the return of an Ace-Ace Split on 9/6 DDB, the 6 for 1 is the highest returning flush I've seen.

[ A ♥ | A ♥ ] 3 ♥ 6 ♥ 9 ♥ Q ♥

Holding the Ace Split Card will produce 178365 outcomes (47 choose 4), with the possibilities breakdown:

Royal Flush - 0 outcomes x 4000 = 0
5 of a Kind - 44 outcomes x 3000 = 132000
4 Aces with Any 2, 3, 4 - 1254 outcomes x 2000 = 2508000
4 Aces - 1584 outcomes x 800 = 1267200
4 2s, 3s, 4s with Ace, 2, 3, 4 - 2 outcomes x 800 = 1600
4 2s, 3s, 4s - 0 outcomes x 400 = 0
4 5s thru Kings - 6 outcomes x 250 = 1500
Straight Flush - 0 outcomes x 250 = 0
Full House - 8788 outcomes x 45 = 395460
Flush - 2254 outcomes x 30 = 67620
Straight - 378 outcomes x 20 = 7560
3 of a Kind - 32220 outcomes x 15 = 483300
Two Pairs - 45138 outcomes x 5 = 225690
Jacks or Better - 86697 outcomes x 5 = 433485


I tallied up the outcomes

0 + 44 + 1254 + 1584 + 2 + 0 + 6 + 0 + 8788 + 2254 + 378 + 32220 + 45138 + 86697 = 178365

I tallied up the total values of the outcomes

0 + 132000 + 2508000 + 1267200 + 1600 + 0 + 1500 + 0 + 395460 + 67620 + 7560 + 483300 + 225690 + 433485 = 5523415

The Expected Return

5523415 / 178365 = 30.9669217616

Thus, it exceeds the expected return of the Flush which is 30. Not sure if anyone knew that dropping the Flush was the right play.

I do not think I'll play the Split Card mode as it stands. It is somewhat impractical to memorize a much greater amount of strategy just to get the same return. The only benefit I see is the player will double their coin-in rate.

I certainly hope that there is a 2nd edition of this game where it can potentially reward players for paying the extra 5 credits to play the split card mode. Otherwise, mistakes over 1 credit can happen frequently if player uses the DDB strategy for this game.

I have most of the Tier 5 Split Cards nearly completed, it seems to be similar to the 5 and 10 Split Card for the most part.

Vman96
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Post by Vman96 »

The returns on the quads are huge. Since you only need to pull 2 of the 3 remaining Aces, that's the huge difference, it's akin to holding a single Ace and making trip Aces. But at both the casino and even dabbling with this on this website, I never seemed to make these pulls enough. The casino was particularly rough on me when I tried it. Blah.

pokerpokerpoker
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Post by pokerpokerpoker »

The one SC machine at a local has now gone dark.

alpax
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Post by alpax »

If the Split Card appears 1 out of every 4 rounds as this website states, the player is just about playing regular DDB with half the payout 75% of the time. It is hard to rely on the split card appearing on the draw would be helpful in anyway. That alone would force a player to have a big big bankroll to survive a long session of playing this game, otherwise it is easy to give up when the rate of losing is there.

When you get a Split Card, the player has to make it count. It has to average about 5 folds the return to the player to compensate for the other rounds where they do not get the Split Card. There is a big margin of error as 60% of the holds are different than the standard game.

I suppose it may be a psychological thing that the big payout hands would make people forget about the excessive losing part.

pokerpokerpoker
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Post by pokerpokerpoker »

Musta been a temporary maintenance type of thing. Split Card machine is back on - with no one playing it.

Vman96
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Post by Vman96 »

Musta been a temporary maintenance type of thing. Split Card machine is back on - with no one playing it.

Well glad it is still there, but who knows for how long.

alpax
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Post by alpax »

Today's Daily Contest was Split Card Poker and it gave me a reminder to finish what I worked on. Wanted to take a week break from the computer.

Tier 5 Split Cards

The ranks revolving involving 6, 7, 8, 9

I've looked at the reports and they all look similar. So I've consolidated the strategy into one general one.

Only one exception, the 9/10 Split Card can produce a dealt Royal Flush where as the others cannot. Even the lowest rated Split Card 6/7 beats out unsuited high cards and two to the Royal.

I will do a general findings/tips on the front page based on what I've learned from this "research".

A.     Split Ranked Split Card

* Only for the 9-10 Split Card where Dealt Royal of EV 4000 is possible, and should be auto-held

1.     Dealt Five of a Kind (3000)
2.     4 Aces (1106.38)
3.     4 2s, 3s, 4s (502.13)
4.     4 5s thru Kings with Split Card (308.51)
5.     Straight Flush (250)
6.     4 5s thru Kings (250)
7.     4 to Royal Flush without Split Card (92.45)
8.     3 of a Kind Aces (63.56)
9.     Full House in 4 Cards with Split Card Assist (49.36)
10.     Full House (45)
11.     3 of a Kind in 3 Cards with Split Card (43.07)
12.     4 to Outside Straight Flush in 3 Cards with Split Card Assist and 4th Suited Card for a 5 card Flush (39.36)
13.     3 of a Kind 2s, 3s, 4s (37.65)
14.     4 to Inside Straight Flush in 3 Cards with Split Card Assist and 4th Suited Card for a 5 card Flush (34.68)
15.     4 to Outside Straight Flush in 3 Cards with Split Card Assist (34.41)
16.     Entire Hand Suited 6 Card Flush (30)
17.     3 of a Kind 5s thru Kings (26.83)
18.     4 to Inside Straight Flush in 3 Cards with Split Card Assist (23.66) Hold 4th card if it completes the Straight (26.81)
19.     Straight (20)
20.     4 to Outside Straight Flush without Split Card (17.66 to 18.3)
21.     3 to Straight Flush in 3 Cards with Split Card and with suited pair (16.43)

22.     4 to Flush in 3 Cards with Split Card Assist with a suited pair (15.66)
23.     Two Pair in 3 Cards with Split Card Assist (15.17)
24.     4 to Flush in 3 Cards with Split Card Assist (13.43)
25.     4 to Inside Straight Flush without Split Card (12.02)
26.     Pair Suited with the Split Card (e.g. 8 ♥ [ 8 ♥ | 9 ♥ ]) (11.68)
27.     High Pair Aces (9.65)
28.     2 Pairs with Split Card and no Ace Pairs (9.25)
29.     3 to Outside Straight Flush in 2 Cards with Split Card Assist (9.22)
30.     Pair of Jacks, Queen, King with Split Card if a suit matches with one of the pair cards (8.05)
31.     3 to the Royal Flush KQJ, QJ10 without Split Card (7.49)
32.     Pair of Jacks, Queen, King (7.23)
33.     3 to the Royal Flush AKJ, AKQ, AQJ, KQ10, KJ10 without Split Card (7.06)
34.     4 to Outside Straight in 3 Cards with Split Card Assist (6.81)
35.     3 to Inside Straight Flush in 2 Cards with Split Card Assist (6.72)
36.     Pair that is Unsuited with Split Card (e.g. 5 ♦ [ 5 ♥ | 6 ♥ ]) (6.61)
37.     3 to the Royal Flush with Ace and 10 without Split Card (6.53)
38.     4 to Flush without Split Card and 2 High Cards (6.38)
39.     3 to Flush in 2 Cards with Split Card and no High Card (6.25)
40.     4 to Flush with 0 or 1 High Cards without Split Card (6.06)
41.     Queen-Jack Unsuited with Split Card for 4 to Inside Straight (4.68)
42.     Pair one rank adjacent with Split Card (4.66) *
43.     Split Rank Split Card (4.57)

Example for #21:
Draw - [ 5 ♥ | 6 ♥ ] 3 ♥ 6 ♥ 3 ♦ 4 ♦
Hold - [ 5 ♥ | 6 ♥ ] 3 ♥ 6 ♥

Example for #42:
Draw - [ 5 ♥ | 6 ♥ ] 4 ♣ 9 ♥ 4 ♦ 8 ♦
Hold - [ 5 ♥ | 6 ♥ ] 4 ♣ 4 ♦

B.     Identical Split Card

1.     Dealt Five of a Kind (3000)
2.     4 Aces (1106.38)
3.     4 2s, 3s, 4s (502.13)
4.     4 5s thru Kings in 3 Cards with Split Card Assist (367.02)
5.     Straight Flush (250)
6.     4 5s thru Kings (250)
7.     4 to Royal Flush without Split Card (91.81 to 98.4)
8.     3 of a Kind Aces (63.56)
9.     3 of a Kind 6s, 7s, 8s, 9s in 2 Cards with Split Card Assist (57.05)
10.     Full House in 4 Cards (except for Aces full) with Split Card Assist (49.36 to 52.55)
11.     4 to Straight Flush with Split Card (34.68 to 39.36)
12.     Entire Hand Suited 6 Card Flush (30)
13.     5 Card Straight (20)
14.     4 to Outside Straight Flush and without Split Card (17.66 to 18.30)
15.     3 to Straight Flush with Split Card (15.72)
16.     Two Pairs with the Split Card (15.45)
17.     4 to Flush in 3 Cards with Split Card Assist (15.32)
18.     4 to Inside Straight Flush with 2 or 3 High Cards (12.66)
19.     Identical Split Card (12)

robert99
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Post by robert99 »

Alpax, my hat is off to you. This is the best analysis I have EVER seen for split card. I have spent most of my time analyzing deuces bonus split card, which is likewise, enormously complex.
My analysis for double double bonus split card shows that it is better to throw the kicker if you are dealt A/A, A, 2, 5, 6, and just hold the 3 aces on 2 cards and throw the deuce.
Could you show the expected values for the 2 different cases, with and without the kicker,as you did for the double ace split card above? I know that there is only one chance of hitting 5 of a kind if you hold the kicker, but 3 chances to hit it if you only hold the 2 cards including the split card ace.(if the cards are V,W,X,Y,Z, then 5 of kind can be XY,XZ, and YZ). Also, if I throw the kicker, I still have 11 kickers remaining and 2 card draws to get the 4 aces with kicker.

New2vp
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Post by New2vp »

Hey Robert, I don't believe Alpax has posted here for a couple years. I could be wrong about why he stopped posting. I thought he got fed up with a couple posters here and was too much of a gentleman to get involved in some of the back and forth. Maybe he still reads the forum occasionally and will break his silence.

Nevertheless, I think you can get his answer to your question in this thread. If you look at his post here of 10/23/16 @ 5:20 pm, item #9, it looks like he disagrees with the conclusion of your analysis, and says that you should hold the deuce along with the split Ace/Ace plus another Ace. He doesn't show the difference in EV between the two holds; however, I think it is anywhere from 1.19 coins to 1.38 coins if the deuce is suited with the Ace/Ace, with the range depending upon whether the 5 or 6 or both are also suited with the split Ace/Ace. If the deuce is not suited, it is a closer call, somewhere between 0.56 and 0.65 coins.

Alpax showed an EV for the 3-ace hold of 192.47. That looks to me like, to get 192.47, he assumed the 3 discards were suited with the split Ace/Ace but none of them were potential kickers. Other combinations of kickers and suited cards will produce different EVs.

Why do the number of suited cards matter? When holding these trips, it is still possible to get a flush by drawing 3 cards suited with the A/A if you hold A/A + A. When holding A/A + A + 2, it is also possible to get a flush. In fact it is a little easier to get a flush since you need to draw only 2 suited cards, but this is only possible if the deuce is already suited with the A/A.

All these numbers are for the 9/6 version, the default version on this site, but it doesn't appear that any of the other pay schedules would cause a change in strategy. Looks like you should hold the kicker in addition to the trip aces.

Best of luck. Without a fairly complex program, doing these calculations by hand is quite tedious.

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