Hot Roll Poker Insight for High Variance Players

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
Post Reply
alpax
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm

Hot Roll Poker Insight for High Variance Players

Post by alpax »

Most likely the last game from this website I will promote here due to the decline of video poker. I applied what I learned from Double STP with Hot Roll Poker which has caught well on the gambling scene to those who need more variance on his/her video poker playing experience. Though I am not interested in playing this game myself due to the short pay compromise live casinos have set, I wanted to see what people are getting themselves into. When the stars are aligned, Hot Roll Poker can bring some memorable jackpot moments. How often does it happen?



What I think everyone knows about Hot Roll Poker (or should know)

-     Makes any video poker variants highly volatile with the potential to pay off 12x amounts
-     Same conventional strategy is used
-     Does not increase or reduce the return of the video poker game variant
-     Requires double wager to play, 5 out of every 6 games is at 1x but 1 out of every 6 games is anywhere from 2x to 12x.
-     A better version of Good Times Pay

This insight will cover three different video poker game variants

7/5 Bonus Poker (98.015% EV) – A popular low variance game that is interesting to see how Hot Roll Poker impacts the game.
9/5 Double Double Bonus Poker (97.873% EV) – The most popular video poker game needless to say more.
9/6 Triple Double Bonus Poker (98.154% EV) – When high variance meets high variance, this one for the purest action junkies.

I am using short pay schedules since it seems like most live casinos that offer this game will force its players to pay a price in offering a volatile game. Maybe 2 pay downgrades are likely to be seen.

Part A – Breakdown of the Hot Roll Multiplier

As stated in the Help page, the Hot Roll Feature occurs once out of every 6 games. There will be two dice rolled to determine the multiplier for the payout. The average multiplier when the Hot Roll triggers is 7x which is exact average as if a person rolled a pair of real dice.



Since there are 36 possible outcomes from rolling 2 dice, using 36 x 6 = 216 games will be a good least common multiple to look at.

No Hot Roll (1X Multiplier) – 180 out of 216 – 83.333%
2X Multiplier – 1 out of 216 – 0.463%
3X Multiplier – 2 out of 216 – 0.926%
4X Multiplier – 3 out of 216 – 1.388%
5X Multiplier – 4 out of 216 – 1.851%
6X Multiplier – 5 out of 216 – 2.315%
7X Multiplier – 6 out of 216 – 2.778%
8X Multiplier – 5 out of 216 – 2.315%
9X Multiplier – 4 out of 216 – 1.851%
10X Multiplier – 3 out of 216 – 1.388%
11X Multiplier – 2 out of 216 – 0.926%
12X Multiplier – 1 out of 216 – 0.463%


Part B – The Variance Impact of Hot Roll Poker

Single Line

Standard 7/5 Bonus Poker – 20.754 with 12 Possible Payouts
Hot Roll 7/5 Bonus Poker – 53.175 with 85 Possible Payouts
Variance Factor Increase – 2.608x

Standard 9/5 Double Double Bonus Poker – 42.167 with 11 Possible Payouts (4 5s thru Kings and Straight Flush are the same. As with 4 Aces and 4 2s, 3s, 4s with Kicker)
Hot Roll 9/5 Double Double Bonus Poker – 106.555 with 84 Possible Payouts
Variance Factor Increase – 2.550x

Standard 9/6 Triple Double Bonus Poker – 100.115 with 11 Possible Payouts (4 5s thru Kings and Straight Flush are the same. As with 4 Aces with Kicker and Royal Flush)
Hot Roll 9/6 Triple Double Bonus Poker – 251.030 with 82 Possible Payouts
Variance Factor Increase – 2.517x


Single CoVariance to derive Multiline Variance

Standard 7/5 Bonus Poker - 2.080
Hot Roll 7/5 Bonus Poker - 6.62

Standard 9/5 Double Double Bonus Poker - 4.7889
Hot Roll 9/5 Double Double Bonus Poker - 13.369

Standard 9/6 Triple Double Bonus Poker - 10.677
Hot Roll 9/6 Triple Double Bonus Poker – 28.058

3 line

Standard 7/5 Bonus Poker – 8.3046 with 194 Possible Payouts
Hot Roll 7/5 Bonus Bonus Poker – 22.138 with 1457 Possible Payouts
Variance Factor Increase – 2.781x

Standard 9/5 Double Double Bonus Poker – 17.2482 with 200 Possible Payouts
Hot Roll 9/5 Double Double Bonus Poker – 44.431 with 1635 Possible Payouts
Variance Factor Increase – 2.632x

Standard 9/6 Triple Double Bonus Poker – 40.4899 with 206 Possible Payouts
Hot Roll 9/6 Triple Double Bonus Poker – 102.382 with 1614 Possible Payouts
Variance Factor Increase – 2.552x

5 line

Standard 7/5 Bonus Poker – 5.815 with 716 Possible Payouts
Hot Roll 7/5 Bonus Bonus Poker – 15.931 with 5408 Possible Payouts
Variance Factor Increase – 2.905x

Standard 9/5 Double Double Bonus Poker – 12.2644 with 1041 Possible Payouts
Hot Roll 9/5 Double Double Bonus Poker – 32.006 with 7039 Possible Payouts
Variance Factor Increase – 2.688x

Standard 9/6 Triple Double Bonus Poker – 28.5649 with 1064 Possible Payouts
Hot Roll 9/6 Triple Double Bonus Poker – 72.652 with 7081 Possible Payouts
Variance Factor Increase – 2.577x

10 line

Standard 7/5 Bonus Poker – 3.947 with 3420 Possible Payouts
Hot Roll 7/5 Bonus Poker – 11.276 with 21556 Possible Payouts
Variance Factor Increase – 3.100x

Standard 9/5 Double Double Bonus Poker – 8.527 with 4938 Possible Payouts
Hot Roll 9/5 Double Double Bonus Poker – 22.687 with 28754 Possible Payouts
Variance Factor Increase – 2.773x

Standard 9/6 Triple Double Bonus Poker – 19.621 with 4960 Possible Payouts
Hot Roll 9/6 Triple Double Bonus Poker – 50.355 with 28759 Possible Payouts
Variance Factor Increase – 2.616x

Hot Roll slightly more than doubles the variance of a video poker game. With an increase of at least 2.5x folds, it produces a very similar increase as Double Super Times Pay Poker which is about 2.52x.

Part C – Odds that may be of Player Interest on 3 Play Hot Roll Poker

When Hot Roll Poker increases the volatility, players expect to achieve jackpots easier and sooner.
On the other hand, playing double the wager will lead to some players wondering how quickly their bankroll may disappear.

These stats assume the player makes optimal hold decisions on every deal.

3 Play Hot Roll Poker 7/5 Bonus Poker

The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 1500.24877124254
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 5180.59571227725
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 39050.495530316
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 75123.7190529182
The Average Odds of W2G for 5¢ Denomination: 1 in 115803.145661365

Percent Chance the Player receives less than the 30 Credit Wager on a single played game: 77.010%

3 Play Hot Roll Poker 9/5 Double Double Bonus

The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 733.614589958581
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 1636.55317777908
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 5385.77257333295
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 24826.8556777463
The Average Odds of W2G for 5¢ Denomination: 1 in 84498.3343614434

Percent Chance the Player receives less than the 30 Credit Wager on a single played game: 82.032%

3 Play Hot Roll Poker 9/6 Triple Double Bonus

The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 590.547538568707
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 1295.27676570483
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 4368.19450911832
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 9111.86816140924
The Average Odds of W2G for 5¢ Denomination: 1 in 25170.5984474356

Percent Chance the Player receives less than the 30 Credit Wager on a single played game: 81.828%

Part D – Odds that may be of Player Interest on 5 Play Hot Roll Poker

When Hot Roll Poker increases the volatility, players expect to achieve jackpots easier and sooner.
On the other hand, playing double the wager will lead to some players wondering how quickly their bankroll may disappear.

These stats assume the player makes optimal hold decisions on every deal.

5 Play Hot Roll Poker 7/5 Bonus Poker

The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 688.357924104878
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 2873.27346688367
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 16687.1066711708
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 43311.1690584441
The Average Odds of W2G for 5¢ Denomination: 1 in 70224.7447110128

Percent Chance the Player receives less than the 50 Credit Wager on a single played game: 77.797%

5 Play Hot Roll Poker 9/5 Double Double Bonus

The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 387.978308290161
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 898.5371415606
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 3121.35060916217
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 14044.7366169065
The Average Odds of W2G for 5¢ Denomination: 1 in 45557.6060714926

Percent Chance the Player receives less than the 50 Credit Wager on a single played game: 81.945%

5 Play Hot Roll Poker 9/6 Triple Double Bonus

The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 320.792887893064
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 767.440166407149
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 2606.06545666166
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 5523.19103647539
The Average Odds of W2G for 5¢ Denomination: 1 in 15142.0021349526

Percent Chance the Player receives less than the 50 Credit Wager on a single played game: 82.350%

Part E – Odds that may be of Player Interest on 10 Play Hot Roll Poker

When Hot Roll Poker increases the volatility, players expect to achieve jackpots easier and sooner.
On the other hand, playing double the wager will lead to some players wondering how quickly their bankroll may disappear.

These stats assume the player makes optimal hold decisions on every deal.

10 Play Hot Roll Poker 7/5 Bonus Poker

The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 157.7662518742
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 796.416368944299
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 6399.85172678321
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 18160.137906043
The Average Odds of W2G for 5¢ Denomination: 1 in 31373.1477771438

Odds of the maximum 480,000 credit win: 1 in 140,343,840

Percent Chance the Player receives less than the 100 Credit Wager on a single played game: 77.958%

10 Play Hot Roll Poker 9/5 Double Double Bonus

The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 143.54175545964
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 359.155650814147
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 1316.91716769708
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 6161.59630219934
The Average Odds of W2G for 5¢ Denomination: 1 in 19510.8314676572

Odds of the maximum 480,000 credit win: 1 in 140,343,840

Percent Chance the Player receives less than the 100 Credit Wager on a single played game: 81.950%

10 Play Hot Roll Poker 9/6 Triple Double Bonus

The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 139.258540105043
The Average Odds of W2G for 50¢ Denomination: 1 in 311.893668517781
The Average Odds of W2G for 25¢ Denomination: 1 in 1235.64537655334
The Average Odds of W2G for 10¢ Denomination: 1 in 2628.71133109758
The Average Odds of W2G for 5¢ Denomination: 1 in 7110.50741923042

Odds of the maximum 480,000 credit win: 1 in 35,085,867

Percent Chance the Player receives less than the 100 Credit Wager on a single played game: 82.862%

Part F – Bankroll needed to play 1080 rounds of Hot Roll Poker

I came up with the number 1080 for two reasons

(1)     It represents a play session where the player will average a 12x Hot Roll multiplier opportunity for 5 cycles. 216 * 5 = 1080
(2)     It represents about 3 hours of solid pay with 10 hands to consider and the dice roll animations at the Normal 2 Speed.

The player will still need a significant bankroll to play just that much 10 play rounds

Will be using the credits notations rather than specific denomination. These stats assume the player makes optimal hold decisions on every deal.

To convert to the dollar currency, divide by 20 for nickels, divide by 10 for dimes, divide by 4 for quarters, and divide by 2 for half-dollars. For dollars, credits is 1 to 1.

3-Play 7/5 Bonus Poker (1457 Payout Possibilities)

4000 Credits – 80.021% Chance No Ruin
6000 Credits – 97.367% Chance No Ruin
8000 Credits – 99.917% Chance No Ruin
10000 Credits – 100% Chance No Ruin

After 1080 rounds, the player will be ahead about 32.27% of the time

3-Play 9/5 Double Double Bonus Poker (1635 Payout Possibilities)

6000 Credits – 81.718% Chance No Ruin
8000 Credits – 96.188% Chance No Ruin
10000 Credits – 99.756% Chance No Ruin
12000 Credits – 99.994% Chance No Ruin
14000 Credits – 99.996% Chance No Ruin

After 1080 rounds, the player will be ahead about 32.89% of the time

3-Play 9/6 Triple Double Bonus Poker (1614 Payout Possibilities)

8000 Credits – 84.952% Chance No Ruin
10000 Credits – 96.964% Chance No Ruin
12000 Credits – 99.810% Chance No Ruin
14000 Credits – 99.996% Chance No Ruin
16000 Credits – 100% Chance No Ruin

After 1080 rounds, the player will be ahead about 29.57% of the time

5-Play 7/5 Bonus Poker (5408 Payout Possibilities)

6000 Credits – 78.638% Chance No Ruin
8000 Credits – 93.127% Chance No Ruin
10000 Credits – 98.588% Chance No Ruin
12000 Credits – 99.843% Chance No Ruin
14000 Credits – 99.987% Chance No Ruin

After 1080 rounds, the player will be ahead about 32.24% of the time

5-Play 9/5 Double Double Bonus Poker (7039 Payout Possibilities)

10000 Credits – 87.707% Chance No Ruin
12000 Credits – 95.748% Chance No Ruin
14000 Credits – 98.959% Chance No Ruin
16000 Credits – 99.862% Chance No Ruin
18000 Credits – 99.994% Chance No Ruin

After 1080 rounds, the player will be ahead about 33.57% of the time

5-Play 9/6 Triple Double Bonus Poker (7081 Payout Possibilities)

12000 Credits – 84.607% Chance No Ruin
14000 Credits – 93.544% Chance No Ruin
16000 Credits – 98.081% Chance No Ruin
18000 Credits – 99.657% Chance No Ruin
20000 Credits – 99.966% Chance No Ruin
22000 Credits – 100% Chance No Ruin

After 1080 rounds, the player will be ahead about 31.04% of the time

10-Play 7/5 Bonus Poker (21556 Payout Possibilities)

8000 Credits – 58.23% Chance No Ruin
12000 Credits – 82.98% Chance No Ruin
16000 Credits – 95.49% Chance No Ruin
20000 Credits – 99.27% Chance No Ruin
24000 Credits – 99.94% Chance No Ruin

After 1080 rounds, the player will be ahead about 32% of the time

10-Play 9/5 Double Double Bonus Poker (28754 Payout Possibilities)

16000 Credits – 81.66% Chance No Ruin
20000 Credits – 93.16% Chance No Ruin
24000 Credits – 98.25% Chance No Ruin
28000 Credits – 99.72% Chance No Ruin
32000 Credits – 99.98% Chance No Ruin

After 1080 rounds, the player will be ahead about 33.5% of the time

10-Play 9/6 Triple Double Bonus Poker (28759 Payout Possibilities)

22000 Credits – 87.26% Chance No Ruin
24000 Credits – 91.85% Chance No Ruin
26000 Credits – 95.39% Chance No Ruin
28000 Credits – 97.59% Chance No Ruin
30000 Credits – 98.86% Chance No Ruin
32000 Credits – 99.52% Chance No Ruin
34000 Credits – 99.85% Chance No Ruin
36000 Credits – 99.98% Chance No Ruin

After 1080 rounds, the player will be ahead about 33.8% of the time

Needless to say, Hot Roll Poker is not for those with the faint of hearts.

Vman96
Video Poker Master
Posts: 3288
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2011 12:49 am

Post by Vman96 »

10 Play Hot Roll Poker 7/5 Bonus Poker

The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 157.7662518742

10 Play Hot Roll Poker 9/5 Double Double Bonus

The Average Odds of W2G for $1 Denomination: 1 in 143.54175545964

How is this possible? That seems way too close to each other

alpax
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm

Post by alpax »

I was puzzled for a bit so I actually did try playing 10 play BP on this website to avoid using real money. I was able to get 1200+ credit wins three times in the 1 hour I played. It was mainly from dealt trip with a Hot Roll trigger of a high multiplier. Trips that get upgraded to a quad or full house made it easier to get. You will get trips once every 46 rounds.

Also another thing to consider is that two pairs in Bonus Poker pays 2 for 1. It is dealt once every 21 hands on average, and if it is all held the player gets ateast 100 credit win. Each full house hits from the two pairs will add 25 credits.

The 1 in 6 multiplier that puts dealt two pairs into W-2 payout.

0 full house 100 credits - Needs 12x
1 full house 125 credits - Needs 10x or more
2 full houses 150 credits - Needs 8x or more
3 full houses 175 credits - Needs 7x or more

Thus winning 1200 credits is easier with 10 play in Bonus Poker. The 2400 credits for 50cent denomination is tougher.

I do realize playing 10 play can get quite brutal for most players. I'll explore the 3 and 5 play soon which might be easier to stomach.

Galeygoo
VP Veteran
Posts: 773
Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:40 am

Post by Galeygoo »

I am always amazed, astounded and confused by this information.    Not necessarily in that order...WOW  

  You two are incredible.....

alpax
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm

Post by alpax »

I am always amazed, astounded and confused by this information.    Not necessarily in that order...WOW  

  You two are incredible.....

I appreciate your gratitude! I was still finishing some stuff with this, but the simplest way I can describe this is to analyze how often a jackpot hits when you play hot roll and how much cash you need to play this at a casino for 3 hours. It would take guts to play Hot Roll.


I've updated to include analysis for 3 and 5 play. I also added more information about variance. This game has high Covariance so playing more lines still has big swings.

Once Flip and Pay comes online I'll finish that up.


pokerpokerpoker
VP Veteran
Posts: 542
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2008 12:05 am

Post by pokerpokerpoker »

"Decline of video poker" - what are you referring to? Paytables? Comps?

alpax
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm

Post by alpax »

"Decline of video poker" - what are you referring to? Paytables? Comps?

This is before Webman made the final reply with regards to the "Recreational and Strategy Forum" situation on Mr. Dancer's farewell post.

Though I am aware of the decline in comps and pay tables in many places across the nation, I really meant to say "decline of video poker interest in this forum" as I regrettably forgot to finish the sentence. I write stuff on a text editor before copy and pasting. It was around the time when ????? returned to the forum and I had a feeling that Mr. Dancer was going to depart again.

I did voice my opinion that the quality of video poker discussions (or the vibe) has not been the same without Mr. Dancer around. Truthfully it could be other factors I did not consider as well, such as there is not much more new things in VP to talk about or if the new games in itself is not enticing.

Although no one has asked me to do these insights and was purely volunteer work, it does take quite a bit of energy to get it done. I was hoping to spark some interest back that I felt was lost when Mr. Dancer departed last year.

I would say I had to agree with some of Mr. Dancer's parting statements that ill advised statements from ????? drag things down for everyone.

Today's statement by Webman seems to be a step in the right direction, will see where things go from there.

Tango2222
Forum Newbie
Posts: 3
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:26 pm

Post by Tango2222 »

Dear Vp Master:

Thank you for the wonderful article on HOT ROLL VIDEO POKER.

This is all I play in the casino. This article on bankroll requirements will help me a lot.

Can you do the bank roll requirements for the deuces wild, I mean similar article.

Also do you think it is possible to make 40- 50 k a year professionally playing 1 dollar three line or 25 cents 10 line hot roll?

Thank you in advance!

pokerpokerpoker
VP Veteran
Posts: 542
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2008 12:05 am

Post by pokerpokerpoker »

Tango2222, Alpax hasn't been seen on this forum for several years now. He is missed.

Tango2222
Forum Newbie
Posts: 3
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:26 pm

Post by Tango2222 »

Dear Poker 3 Times:

Thank you for your response! They opened Encore in Boston, and I have been playing, and learning about this game. But, being somewhat math challenged (lol) -it is not easy to obtain the answers of what bankroll is required to make a specific amount. Of Course, I understand that there are no guarantees, etc. But, still. Any assistance is greatly appreciated. I believe that in the short term hot roll feature can be used as a leverage in hitting some nice hands, even though the pay table is less than perfect.

Thank you for all your help!

Post Reply