Are $5 Games Beatable?

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
BobDancer
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Are $5 Games Beatable?

Post by BobDancer »

There have been a number of posts recently by people saying you're going to lose a ton playing $5 games, unless they give you enough "comps," or whatever. These posts are basically by people who don't understand how winning at high stakes video poker works.The Borgata was mentioned by name --- but this is not about the Borgata in particular, other than starting with $5  9/6 Jacks or Better, which they have.The question a player needs to be asking in order to decide  whether or not to play this game is something like, "If I play $200,000 coin-in in a month, what will the casino give me?" The number "$200,000" isn't magical. It could be $100,000 --- or $500,000 --- or whatever. But the number $200,000 will suffice for this post.For the most part, I'm not interested in comps (rooms, meals, show tickets.) I'm interested in cash or free play. And I care not a hoot how much I'm ahead or behind playing the $200,000. There will be times I hit a couple of royals and am up more than $30,000. There will be times I lose $10,000 or more playing that much. No big deal. These are normal swings for a $5 player and mean nothing. It's your score over the course of a year or a lifetime that is far more important. Players who concentrate on their daily scores rather than their lifetime scores have distorted views of what it takes to win.9/6 JoB returns 99.54% with competent play, so that means the expected shortfall on playing $200,000 is $920. Yes there is variance, but the EV is the number you work with to figure out whether it makes sense to play here.First, does the casino offer any sort of cash back and if so how much? This is money that automatically accrues to the player. If the casino in question offered 0.20% cash back, then the player would earn $400 by playing $200,000 coin-in and the shortfall is only $520. For purposes of this discussion, whether it is actual cash back or free play you need to play through once doesn't matter.On this cash back, are there any multiple point periods? Planning your play around such periods has advantages --- and also disadvantages because there's often not enough "good machines" to go around to everybody who wants one on the point multiplier days. Strong players plan their trips for such periods. Players who take the attitude of "I'm making my trip when I want to, whether there is a promotion or not" should be applauded for their individualism but pitied for their lack of gambling savvy.Second, you look at how much are the monthly mailers, if any, for that much play. For various amounts of play, these can range between $20 and $2,000 or more. These are not trivial and you need to know what is "normal" for a particular casino before you can evaluate whether or not playing this much makes sense. Quarter players are used to getting very small, if any, mailers and often do not realize how important these are to higher-stakes players.Knowledgeable players know that this monthly mailer is not "guaranteed," and can vary over time. That's one of the prices of doing business. But if the overlay is large enough, the player can rack up enough profit before the free play is curtailed that it makes sense to play. People who want a guarantee should put their money into a bank.If you don't know what a casino returns in monthly mailers (you should be able to learn about cash back, if any, from a club boothling), sometimes you just need to play $200,000 a month for a few months and see what shows up in the mail. $200,000 sounds like a lot of money if you're a quarter player, but for $5 players it's not so much. Your expected loss of $920 (less the cash back) is small compared to the normal swings of the game. It's a small amount to invest for the information. What other offers that can be turned into cash do you get from this casino? It's useful to have somebody knowledgeable who plays there as a resource. (You can meet such players on vpFREE and/or wizardofvegas.com. the videopoker.com forum specializes in lower-level players who would not be particularly knowledgeable on $5 machines. There are some higher-level players here but you need to search for them.) What kind of drawings do they have and what kind of equity would $200,000 coin-in generate? At some places, that much play would, in essence, guarantee you first place in the drawing. At other places, that wouldn't put you into the top 50 players coin-in-wise. What kind of place is this?Are there slot tournaments with reasonably small numbers of entrants? (The higher the number of entrants --- the higher the variance. I'm assuming that the amount of skill you need for a slot tournament is minimal and basically everybody has the same chance.) Do they have video poker tournaments with reasonably small numbers of entrants? In these, typically a significant percentage of the entrants are clueless about playing video poker --- whereas an experienced video poker player (even a recreational one) will be able to "see" the correct play faster and move his/her fingers faster. This presents an opportunity where some players have a significant advantage over others. I assume most readers of this forum qualify for most of this advantage.Are there other "cash" benefits at this casino? If they have cruise discounts, for example, that is of more interest to some players than others. The value of the room, meal, show tickets, etc., is only of interest  to me if I would have paid retail for them. Since I would not visit Cherokee Casino (for example) if there weren't good video poker, the value of these things would not be included in the calculus of whether the game is beatable. Are there tier levels which are worth something to you? Seven Stars isn't that difficult for a $5 player to reach --- much tougher for a quarter player. Do you value the benefits? The cross-country visit including $1200 in airfare and $500 in food/spa credit once you're there has great value to Bonnie and me as we make trips for other reasons than just casinos. This is not a complete list --- but it gives you an idea. It is far more useful that listening to a quarter player who says he can find no 100% $5 machines so therefore the game can't be beaten --- so anybody who says otherwise should come clean and tell the truth.From my point of view, the truth is that there are several high stakes games that are beatable around the country. Anybody who says differently is either lying or not knowledgeable in the way that it's done.

billryan
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Post by billryan »

I participate in a number of gambling forums and am constantly amazed by the amount of bad information and sheer stupidity that the more proficient posters here disseminate. In two plus years living in Las Vegas, I've met dozens of people making good money from VP. None post here and most make fun of me for posting.

BobDancer
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Post by BobDancer »

Clearly I post here and clearly you and I have met.

Any reason you didn’t include me in your ‘dozens of people?’

Vman96
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Post by Vman96 »

Clearly I post here and clearly you and I have met.

Any reason you didn’t include me in your ‘dozens of people?’

I would assume an oversight. bill is one of your staunchest defenders / Florida Phil detractors here. But yes, most people that play VP in a profitable manner really don't post here. I would post on VPFree more, but God I hate how Yahoo forums are set up.

billryan
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Post by billryan »

Clearly I post here and clearly you and I have met.

Any reason you didn’t include me in your ‘dozens of people?’

I guess you didn't realize it but I'm simply a shill of yours. An alter ego, so to speak.
Even I wasn't aware of it until phil pointed it out.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

I have to agree with much of Bob's logic here. The only problem I have with all of the calculation stuff is that for some players the math will never come out right in their lifetime. Some people are just luckier than others.
     That said, I value free play just as if it were cash in my pocket which is what it really is. Sometimes by my own calculations, the free play can be as much as .5 percent which makes it an even up game with 9/6 job.
     I also look for the tournaments where there will be few invited players maybe just a couple of hundred or so. Not too many years ago, I entered one at Mohegan Sun where there were several sessions but it was a one day affair and there were only about 50 people per session. I was lucky enough to do the mindless banging on a regular slot machine for the ten minutes or so and win the grand prize of 5k. Long gone of course, but it was in my pocket to do with as I wish and not some over inflated retail value gift offer for stuff I will never use.
    Anyway, cash is still king in my book and anything that can be easily turned into cash or its equivalent in short order counts for me toward reducing the pay table .46 percent or so house advantage.
    Forgot to add one thing. If one finds a machine that pays regular points that you can spend, like for gasoline, that counts like cash for me too. Since I always drive to the casino, I would have to buy gas anyway. I also get a nice gas discount with the Soar card at Mohegan Sun so the pump price works out to be comparable to what I would pay at home. I haven't bought any gas with my own money in years and always fill up at the Mohegan Sun. I'm not ahead of them by far, but at least the free play, free gas, etc. have softened the blow a bit.

Lucky Larry
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Post by Lucky Larry »

I have to agree with much of Bob's logic here. The only problem I have with all of the calculation stuff is that for some players the math will never come out right in their lifetime. Some people are just luckier than others.
     That said, I value free play just as if it were cash in my pocket which is what it really is. Sometimes by my own calculations, the free play can be as much as .5 percent which makes it an even up game with 9/6 job.
     I also look for the tournaments where there will be few invited players maybe just a couple of hundred or so. Not too many years ago, I entered one at Mohegan Sun where there were several sessions but it was a one day affair and there were only about 50 people per session. I was lucky enough to do the mindless banging on a regular slot machine for the ten minutes or so and win the grand prize of 5k. Long gone of course, but it was in my pocket to do with as I wish and not some over inflated retail value gift offer for stuff I will never use.
    Anyway, cash is still king in my book and anything that can be easily turned into cash or its equivalent in short order counts for me toward reducing the pay table .46 percent or so house advantage.
    Forgot to add one thing. If one finds a machine that pays regular points that you can spend, like for gasoline, that counts like cash for me too. Since I always drive to the casino, I would have to buy gas anyway. I also get a nice gas discount with the Soar card at Mohegan Sun so the pump price works out to be comparable to what I would pay at home. I haven't bought any gas with my own money in years and always fill up at the Mohegan Sun. I'm not ahead of them by far, but at least the free play, free gas, etc. have softened the blow a bit.

olds,
Our home casino Coushatta allows points to be spent at their gas pumps and these unused points have paid for many miles of our 2 1/2 hour, 150 mile drive. Even though the gas is usually 10-15¢ above norm per gallon. it sure saves us money.

pokerpokerpoker
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Post by pokerpokerpoker »

Okay, lets say there is a casino that offers good cash back, generous mailers and is a low-roller joint where $200k/month would really "stuff the drum" for their many good drawings and promos (cash, cars, IPhones, TV's). Also let us assume you could play the fives all month long with no "heat".

But,they don't offer 9/6 JOB. Their best $5 game is now 9/7 TDB, or maybe SH 9/6 DDB QQ . Now variance is a big issue, even though you have a .2% edge. Is it still a play?

BobDancer
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Post by BobDancer »


Okay, lets say there is a casino that offers good cash back, generous mailers and is a low-roller joint where $200k/month would really "stuff the drum" for their many good drawings and promos (cash, cars, IPhones, TV's). Also let us assume you could play the fives all month long with no "heat".

But,they don't offer 9/6 JOB. Their best $5 game is now 9/7 TDB, or maybe SH 9/6 DDB QQ . Now variance is a big issue, even though you have a .2% edge. Is it still a play? Bankroll is a critical issue. Defining bankroll as "the amount of money you could lose before you had to give up gambling," you don't want to go broke. A "rule of thumb" for games with low variance (such as Jacks or Better) is that you need 3-5 royal flushes in bankroll (i.e. $60,000 - $100,000) even if you have a 0.2% advantage. For a moderate variance game (like SH 9/6 DDB QQ), you need probably 5-7 royals to play the game comfortably. And for high variance games (like 9/7 TDB), you need perhaps 10-15 royals as a cushion.On the examples you cited, I would play, but I'm in a position where $5 single-line poses no threat to my bankroll. But I would recommend most players to stay away these games unless they have a sizeable financial and psychological bankroll. The numbers in the preceding paragraph, while just suggestions on my part, are beyond the gambling bankroll of most players.

Burtwithau
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Post by Burtwithau »

I only play $2 and $5 if I am already ahead and usually when I am on a roll. I don't limit myself to having quads/straight flushes/royals. For DDB, as you know, a full house on a $2 machine is $90. For a $5 machine a full house is $225. For perspective $90 is 72% of a common quad on a .50 machine. $225 is 9/10 of a common quad on a $1 machine. If I am hitting full houses and/or flushes/straights regularly and I am ahead I will sometimes push it up a denom or two and see if my luck holds. The last time I hit a streak I was up an additional $450 in very little time. The key is recognizing when the streak ends so you can pocket the profit or lower your rate back to where you were. A disciplined stop is also key. For example 2 losses in a row on $5 will stop $5 play. It takes 3 losses in a row on $2 to stop.

I know that previous results do NOT affect current plays/hands but I am streaky and know how my luck runs a bit in the 25 years or so I have been playing VP.

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