daily games

[mjterry]

....would someone please help me here?????

[Webman]

I'll note that the new 3rd place score is a royal is in spades, not hearts. So the question is now "what are the odds of the 1st, 2nd and 4th place scores all being hearts?" The answer is about the same, though.

[mammajamma]

Mammajamma, still waiting for an answer on how I am taking advantage of Webman. I am really interested in how I am doing that. By the way nice picture on your personal pageWell, since you never answered my original question and only evaded it by debating that webman didn't give you preferential treatment, I realized that you can't have a normal discussion with a doorknob.

[Webman]

Mammajamma, name-calling is frowned upon in the forum. Please refrain from posting such insults in the future.

[mammajamma]

didnt mean to insult the doorknob

[jim18]

Good Afternoon MjterryIn response to your recent posts, I offer this for your consideration.I thought that I read somewhere on the VP site that roughly 5,200 people took part in last months contest.Lets say that there are 10 top scores each day, for 30 days.  At the end of a month, you might expect to find 300 different user names.  As a percentage of 5,200 contestants, I guess that is a small number.  Of course, if you think like the VP experts do, then you would say that over  24 months you would expect to see (300 x24), 7,200 different names relating to the top ten daily scores in the monthly contest.Under those circumstances, it would seem reasonable to find several names that you are familiar with.But, to the defense of the website, I have no idea what is the connection between people that chat, people that post a lot, and people that have a daily contest score in the top ten In other words, are these same people playing the daily contests?

[jim18]

Good Afternoon WebmanI did not mean to imply that there was something funny about VP’s involvement in the daily contests.  As far as I know everything is being done honestly.Going back to my post of yesterday, I would like to clarify it slightly.If there are six games offered in the daily contest, I think that I could start with the calculation that there is a 1/6 chance of a top score being achieved on a specific game.  And there is a 1/4 chance that a RF would be in any suit.  Together I think that means that for the top score there would be a (1/6 * 1/4), ½4 chance of it occurring in the DDB game, and it containing a RF in hearts.If the above calculation is correct, then to calculate the odds of it occurring again, I believe the calculation to be ½4 * ½4.  And for it to occur a third time during the same contest, the odds of it occurring would be ½4 * ½4 * ½4.Certainly such an occurrence as three RF in hearts, all on DDB is possible.  However, if we are to put faith in randomness, then I would say that such a occurrence is at least unusual.  As if some other factor was in play.The other factor may be a perception by contestants that with DDB you have more chances of getting large wins.  In fact, I believe this to be a fact.  My conclusion is that if the contestant is playing JOB or BP, that this person is at a disadvantage to the DDB playing contestant.What I am waiting to see is for one or more of the “perceived VP experts” to step up to the bat and state clearly  that one of the games ( DDB) gives the contestant an advantage over all the other games offered.  Therefore, any serious contestant should be playing only that one game. (Or two games, if that is the case)If VP experts can calculate the theoretical return for any VP game, I suspect that they could calculate which game to play in a contest.  Why is this important?Winning is quite difficult in these daily contests.  Yes, it is all about luck.  However, I think that some people are knowledgeable enough to know that certain games will serve them better in a short contest that other games will.  In my opinion, we have already taken skill out of these contests.So, why not have all players on equal footing by educating all of us on the best game(s) to play in your contest?  Better yet, why not only offer one game to play in the daily contest, which will eliminate any perceived, or real advantages that one game may have over others in a short contest?

[SleazyRider]

mjterry,
 
I understand your frustration at the chances of winning the cash prize in the daily contest.  Lets assume for the sake of argument that the contest is totally honest, as I assume it is. Then you still have very little chance of winning the cash prize.  There are too many players chasing a single prize.  Since we are lately getting 5,000 people playing in the daily contests, it seems to me that your odds of winning the prize are about 1 in 5,000 , assuming average skill and luck.  I would  argue that you would have to expect to play in 2,500 daily contests to reasonably expect to have a fifty - fifty chance to win. How many years would that take?  As far as I am concerned, in a cash prize contest, the only thing that matters is finishing first and winning the prize (if there is only 1 prize).  Forget about bragging rights about a high finish.  Some people who want to mazimize their chances to win a contest, may play a low probability, but high scoring strategy in hopes that they will get lucky, make the big point score, and win the contest.  As a result, they may usually finish near the bottom in exchange for an increased chance to win.

You asked that players be allowed to play unlimited sessions. I think that the presest limit is a good thing rather than the old "Go for Gold" format, as it tends to level the playing field so that everyone has an equal chance to win.  I showed in a similar topic posting on Daily Contests last month, that in triple play draw poker with 100 deal sessions and 5 session limits with 5,200 players that the expected number of dealt royals was 4.  This says that you probably have to get a dealt royal (12,000 points) to have a chance to win.  Now your chances of getting a dealt royal are directly proportional to the number of sessions that you play. So the more sessions that you play, the better your chances are.  I showed that the chances of a player in a contest with the above conditions getting a dealt royal was about 1/1,300. This is low, but possible with luck.  As a result, players who play more sessons have an edge over those who play less.  I suppose that each person has to decide whether that is ok.
 
If you want additional playing time after you play your 5 o 8 sessions in the daily contests, I suggest that you consider playing in the daily cash prize tournamets in the VideoPoker.com Poker Room at the Zen site. The link to it is contained in one of the rotating panes in the large display window on the home page.  It shows a Texas Hold 'em table, but the videopoker is there too. Only a relatively few of our members play there.  I suggested in the past that members play in the tournaments there when there were no contests going on.  Now with the daily contests, I would suggest that members play in the cash prize tournamets there if they want additional playing time.  If you played there also, you would get a feel for what it is like to compete for small prizes against a much smaller number or players (usually 90 to 150).  There I think you will find that it is not easy to win a tournament, but it can be done.  I think that you will find that playing in the tournaments also inproves your play in the triple play and 100 play daily contests, as contest and tournament strategies are similar.

Further discussion of video poker tournaments in this topic/thread would be going off-topic.  I have previously started a topic/thread in the Video Poker Software section of the forum where members can obtain information about the Zen Video Poker Tournaments and discuss them without having to try to download the tournament software.  I invite you to give the tournaments a try.  I think that you will find them interesting.
 

[Webman]

If there are six games offered in the daily contest, I think that I could start with the calculation that there is a 1/6 chance of a top score being achieved on a specific game. 

 This assumes equal play among all game types. This is far from the case. DDB is played far more frequently for the reason mentioned previously... the kicker payouts.  Choosing the best game to play is probably the most skillful decision to make in these contests. As you mention, from there luck is the biggest factor. You have to get some great cards too. The most important thing in winning these contests is the jackpots. In a standard triple or 100 play format, you pretty much know the winner will have a dealt jackpot of 4000 points per hand. So, which game offers the best chance at that? Most have a royal, but if a game like TDB is offered that is a lot more chances at the jackpot amount, when Aces with a kicker pays 4000 as well. Now you can have a chance at the top score with either a royal or aces with a kicker... your odds have gone up dramatically.  On single hand, look for the game that has a much, much easier jackpot payout for 4 aces = 4000. That will be the most likely winner, and it is the game that smart players will likely play the most, unless they get less enjoyment out of it and they want to take their chances with a less likely game. DDB is popular in Ultimate X I am guessing because you have a chance at the 4000 royal, plus some great quad payouts. If a JOB player and another player both hit a royal and a quad in the same session, the player on DDB will probably win because their quad payout is higher than in JOB. The JOB person may not even show in the top 10 because everyone on DDB had something that eclipsed their score. The more volatile games, generally, have the best chance of winning in a contest (though perhaps not the best chance of a "winning" positive score in a short number of hands). When you are only playing 100 hands, the return on the game (98%, 99% etc) matters much less, except when the 1st and second place score are within a few points of one another. Your full house and straights only matter if you also have the jackpots to go along with them. Now, when you have a game like Ultimate X with multipliers, you may not need a dealt jackpot any more to win. 10x a royal on one line will beat any dealt jackpot on all lines with no multiplier. So you have to figure that into your decision-making. And of course, some people just play whatever they enjoy the most and let the cards fall as they may. That's fine too, any game type could win, but the odds are less in their favor. Hopefully this helps a bit.

[New2vp]

Hey SleazyRider, Excellent post.  I didn't run the numbers, but your logic seems sound.It's impossible to know 100% whether a program is using a fair random number generator (RNG), but since the results mirror what we would expect to happen under the assumption that the RNG is fair, there does not seem to be enough evidence to conclude that there is any "funny business" going on.I agree with you that 5 sessions keeps the playing field more level .  Awarding the extra 3 bonus rounds when having played the max the day before is a nice touch.I do understand that others who start with a different prior set of beliefs might conclude unfairness.  It's impossible to prove one way or another; however, only one camp can be right on this issue and I think they have chosen the wrong side.I do wonder why people who think the contest is rigged would still play and complain about it.  Certainly, if the contest were rigged, the people doing the rigging would not admit to it given a complaint.  And, if you believe you have no chance of winning, it would seem pointless to play.  Maybe they are not 100% certain that the contest is rigged and just want to let the site know that "people are watching just in case."SR, once again, excellent post and thanks for your insight.