Monthly Contest: answer to equipguy

[Minn. Fatz]

“Two Royals in the first eight games. What are the odds?”

Assuming you're playing Super Double Double Bonus, you will get a RF on average about once every 40,168 hands. The probability of getting exactly two RFs in 800 hands is:

(1/40168)^2 x (40167/40168)^798 x combin(800,2) = .00019419

so it should happen about once every 5,150 trials.

Now, if one percent of VP.com members plays the monthly contest, the probability of any one of them getting exactly two RFs in their first 800 hands is:

1 - (.99980581^3600) = .50299

so that should happen slightly more often than every other month.

[alpax]

Thanks for doing the math and interesting finding! Some reason I've decided to try to get into the 7 Star Tournament this month.

[Minn. Fatz]

Good Mathematics!