MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

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wildman49
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Re: MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

Post by wildman49 »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Fri Dec 03, 2021 6:01 pm
You can add Tesla to my recent mistakes. Luckily I only bought 2 shares. Two too many. Back to my dividend plays. And if I sell Tesla and Disney for a tax write off, It will help a bit, but won’t touch my Greedy States ability to tax me on Gross gambling winnings with no writeoff ability. Now that’s something that should be against the law! Gambling winnings and losses should be treated no differently than trading stocks except for maybe not give them the favored Capital Gains Tax treatment. Fat chance of that happening!
Olds hold your Tesla but DIS is no good here. I remember like yesterday shorting Amazon at 170 bucks as everyone said it was over valued, what a mistake should have bought and forget it now it's over 3k.
Tesla looks over valued but there profits would be much higher if they was not building plants all over the world. Amazon did the same build out warehouses for years and profits suffered. When the model 2 comes out with a 20k price the stock will double.

AS for the taxes, I will file as a professional gambler this year so my tax bill should be low, just worried about an audit.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Ok. Keep good records. I guess that is all you can do. Yes, chances of an audit are very high. If several years go by without a profit, they might very well try and disallow some of the write offs as a hobby, so good luck at any rate. Speaking of greedy States, Ct is one of the 19 States that steal most of your Social Security annuity if you have a civil service pension like we do. Not only is the Mrs SSA not even enough to pay the Medicare Oart B premium. Mine is 0 because I don’t have the 40 quarters. My SSA survivor pension would be 0 as well. Hope we can at least keep our health. That is everything. For anyone who thinks a Federal pension is a Windfall, they don’t even pay your life insurance and only a portion of your supplemental health insurance which everyone needs due to the Medicare 80 percent rule.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Again, best of luck Wildman on the pro-gambler decision. Just a couple of things to consider you probably know already. The Tax Reform Act of 2018 eliminated a write off in this scenario…..If you had as an example 100,000 in gross gambling income, 95,000 in gambling losses, and 10,000 on business expenses, you could offset the remaining 5,000 in gambling income, but not deduct the other 5,000 in business expenses from your other income. Bummer. Also, if you do manage a profit, you will have to pay the 15.3 self employment SS tax on that income. Besides keeping Meticulous records, you really should have a separate bank account for the gambling activity. There is no question you put enough time in playing so that should not be an issue. Best of luck to you stay safe and well that is really everything. What I just wrote about here is just my opinion. Make sure as I know you will seek your own professional accounting advice. There is also a wealth of information on this subject on the internet.

FAA
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Post by FAA »

Terrifying stock market session today. From -800 to +92 on the Biden Bounce! What a hellacious whipsaw. I took five solid months off and returned to the market on lucky 2.22.22. Just in time for the bloodbaths and chaos. My poor timing goes beyond VP. This time around I do have cautious and nimble advisors in my corner. I learned a lot. Out of the ETF category, which was my quicksand.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Old saying, don’t try to catch a falling knife. Been there done that. I hope I am wrong, but I am predicting a Dow in the mid to high 20s. Stocks have returned 10% a year average since 1926. However, when it gets out of wack can you have an 18% year and then a 27Percent year there is almost always in adjustment After that to bring the average back in line with history.
So for the moment we have inflation somewhere between seven and 9% but where are the CDs at even 5%? I can’t even get one percent. Back in the Jimmy Carter days we didn’t have much money but when interest rates hit 21% we got a couple of CDs at 18 1/2% and lock them up for five years. Something is amis this time and the banks are not falling in line with inflation. I suspect mortgage rates will be up over 5% sooner than later but I doubt we will see even 3% CDs when that happens. As to the market, I will just wait for what I think the bottom is and a 5% upturn before jumping in with more money

FAA
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Post by FAA »

That’s why I avoided the suspected September and January sell offs. I’m buying low and trusting the pros.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:50 pm
So for the moment we have inflation somewhere between seven and 9% but where are the CDs at even 5%? I can’t even get one percent.
Last time around, yields lagged inflation according to the charts I'm seeing. Inflation topped at about 15% in early 1980, then the 10year Treasury topped at 16% in 1982. For the next 3 years, Treasuries held above 10% while inflation dropped below 5%. So maybe on the back end of this we'll have somewhat better conditions for investing our savings.

Banks are currently paying 0.5% on a savings account if you shop around. The market is estimating 6 or 7 quarter-point rate hikes before year end, so that could push banks above 2% if it actually happens.

Currently you can get almost 2% on an intermediate-term Treasury ETF such as VGIT. Or over 2% if you buy a mixed Treasury/corporate ETF. But for the last 6 months you would have lost money because of yields rising.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Yes my intermediate treasury bond fund now has a decent yid, but also now worth less than I paid for it by 7 percent

billryan
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Post by billryan »

Best interest rates were in the Reagan years, not Carter. TIPS are paying 7 1/2% right now and may go up a bit.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

billryan wrote:
Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:46 pm
TIPS are paying 7 1/2% right now and may go up a bit.
Are you possibly referring to i-bonds? I thought TIPS were significantly lower than that.

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