MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

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olds442jetaway
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Re: MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

Post by olds442jetaway »

I think this time around, there are too many unknowns to predict too far out

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 6:49 pm
I think this time around, there are too many unknowns to predict too far out
5 and a half years is a long time, but oil futures are pricing a 20% drop before the end of next year.

I think I need to see a lot of evidence to believe price inflation will be sustained. The first modern developed country to go government debt crazy was Japan in the 1990s. Japan is now above 250% debt to GDP, and yet price inflation remains uneventful. Japan has stayed under 4% price inflation for 40 years, and is currently near 1%.

One possibility is that Japan should have had price deflation, but their money printing kept the rate above zero.

US debt to GDP is about 135%.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 12:40 pm
Bought some Sqqq today. Will dump it tomorrow if I am still ahead on it.
Sqqq down today, but still better than owning WMT Walmart. Reduced earnings and outlook due to cost pressures.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

I may add to sqqq on 10 percent drops. If it doesn’t rally, that means my other stuff is coming back. I plan to play both ends here as long as I think overall we are still headed down.

FAA
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Post by FAA »

My portfolio was +1.5% today. This borders on the miraculous. I badly needed it, regardless of any label. Worried about Home Depot. Its huge gain vaporized within minutes.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

WMT Walmart down >20% since last month. TGT Target down >30%. Costs are cutting into their profits. Maybe inflation is not caused by corporate greed?

We had many years of 2% CPI while stocks and house values were +10%. The food and energy industries retrenched. Now they're unable to meet demand. We may be into a reversal where your assets go up 2% (if at all) while your expenses are +10%.

I think energy stocks may be reasonably priced or cheap given the low expectations indicated by crude oil futures prices. I sold a few holdings that had big run-ups, and now I'm attempting to bargain-hunt in communist South America. I own YPF, today I'm buying EC Ecopetrol, and I'm watching PBR Petrobras.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

Speaking of +10%, SQQQ :up:

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Bailed on sqqq. Quick 500. Destroyed on all my other holdings as most of us are.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

Trying to make sense of today's action. Market went down because of recession fears, but "recession-proof" stocks were crushed the hardest.

Treasury bonds were my only winners.

FAA
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Post by FAA »

McDonalds -4.4%, Costco -12.5%, Pepsi -6.2%, Coca Cola -7%. I'll go out on a limb and say you own three. Not even my solar and wind energy won. Yesterday's +1.5% was erased by today's huge -2.8%.

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