MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[olds442jetaway]

I hate to say it, but I think there is more downside, gloom, and doom to follow. The new car chip scenario is a total disaster. Used car prices up 50 percent over last Year. People are buying new cars for MSRP and a week later selling them as used to another dealer for 5,000 to 10,000 more. I have a 2019 vehicle I bought new. It is still in new condition, but has 75,000 mostly casino highway miles on it already. I was just offered what I paid for the car new, but to replace it with the same car would cost me 44 percent more than I paid in May of 2019 plus big taxes and fees. Thanks, but no thanks. Sooner than later, people will be defaulting on auto loans, maxing out credit cards and a huge increase in bankruptcies to follow. Wage increases don’t even cover half of the increased costs to live and pay bills. The spending spree may stop soon, but the above scenario I am sure will follow.
By the way, gasoline n Germany is well over 8 bucks a gallon. ( 2.36 a liter ) yikes! I just checked myself on ribeye steak for Father’s Day. 10-20 bucks a pound range. I guess the Mrs and I will wait and eat at the casino tomorrow. I know it will cost 100 bucks, but my host was nice enough to put a 100 comp in my account. Different world though. I had to ask for it. Use to get weekly calls with nice offers from the marketing dept. Those days are gone at least in Ct for VP players.

[FAA]

Delightful respite from the sell off. It was to be expected, but gratifying all the same.

[FAA]

Unchanged. JP comments did wipe out the day's gains.

[olds442jetaway]

Ditto, but probably needed. I think they will have to settle for 4 percent inflation if they even get there! And it won’t be imminent!! Pent up Covid -itis will keep people spending like drunken sailors for a while yet. Even if airline tickets go from 400 to 1200 bucks they won’t care. They will max out their credit cards and then cry poor mouth. I do feel bad for the people that live week to week and have little ones. It’s going to affect those folks the mostAnd there are lots of them. Businesses just cannot get reliable help and when they think do they call out or quit. Supply chain issues are going to continue. The war and other worldwide issues and potential catastrophes will hang over us all.

[dinghy]

Pent up Covid -itis will keep people spending like drunken sailors for a while yet. Even if airline tickets go from 400 to 1200 bucks they won’t care. They will max out their credit cards and then cry poor mouth.

Good for them. They survived a 2-year psychological torture campaign by their own government. I don't blame them in the slightest for wanting to live their lives.

[olds442jetaway]

Nor do I. And most of them will not be the ones crying poor mouth. Biting my tongue on the ones that will. I will just say that it will be the ones that never seem to get a handle on their personal finances, always carry near max credit card balances no matter what the interest rate, and are part of the have to have it right now generation.

[dinghy]

Yes, people make bad decisions. Kids aren't learning anything in government schools, and their role models are idiots.

The entire pandemic response was counterproductive. People are recognizing the mistakes, and many will eventually understand that the mistakes were intentional.

It's really hard to predict how this will play out, but it's going to be bumpy. I'm positioning for the most likely range of outcomes. I think the economy has to be slow at best. I think inflation will peak out in most categories, but I've been wrong on that. And I think confidence in politicians will crater.

Looking at current prices, I continue to love gold miners. GDXJ has pulled back again to below 36.

I'm tempted to increase my energy exposure on this pullback. South of America, the outright communist was elected in Colombia. I'm still holding my EC Ecopetrol because I'm doubtful he has the broad support to push through his full insanity.

I'll add more URNM (Uranium Miners) if it declines at all today. It's already down 40% in two months. I think nuclear expansion is inevitable.

[dinghy]

New position: BCC Boise Cascade. Selloff overdone, imo.

[olds442jetaway]

Used to own BCC almost 30 years ago. Did well with it. It is good that they pay out a nice dividend from both earnings and cash flow. My biggest concern with them would be if the Country goes into a major recession that could greatly affect building materials etc. The drop was partly due to the ex div date I think around the end of May.

[dinghy]

Used to own BCC almost 30 years ago.

I think demand will be sustained by migration, among other factors. People buy materials when they move to a new residence. Also by some measures, housing inventory is on the low side.

These stocks have been crushed. I think there's a lot of bad news already priced in.

Very bad day for my gold miners, but I don't care. I'm buying more. It just doesn't make sense. One of the few negatives for miners is high energy costs, but the miners are crashing on a day when energy is going down.

I had to sell some of my VGSH to raise cash, but it's on an upswing which cushioned the blow a little.