MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[dinghy]

I am waiting for the banks to get going with CD rates.

Here are the best rates for brokered bank CDs from Vanguard:



I shifted my idle cash into VGSH and BSV. They're both short-term bond ETFs in the 2 to 3 year duration range, but BSV is not purely Treasury. Yield curve (blue line):

[wildman49]

Agree. We are about there now, they don’t like to admit it. I don’t believe there will be any .25 up moves by the Fed. .5 or even .75 possible. I am going to be trading sqqq as well. Hope to stay somewhat stable as my portfolio continues ro sink. I am waiting for the banks to get going with CD rates. They are in no hurry, but may be shortly as people will be drawing down their savings. Some of the price increases for everyday things are incredible. Close to double. Saw an ad today for a poorer cut of meatFlank steak advertised as a huge sale at 10 bucks a pound. They can keep it. If I remember Wildman, your career was in retail grocery. They also advertised Filet as a huge sale at 22 a pound.

Yes did 21 years retail grocery. Chicken breast went from $2.29 to $3.29 a lb. and no takers they had to put 20% reduce price to sell close dated. You all are seeing it first hand, we will see things come down over time but never back to what we all used to. Higher prices for everything is like a tax means less money to spend.

The casino seemed pretty slow Saturday night and when I drove home at 8p the roads seemed very quite, things are slowing here in Michigan.

[olds442jetaway]

Same. No problem at all getting the machines I like. The senior crowds are vanishing little by little. Young people ( drinkers ) dominating now. Mainly the clubs and bars. They don’t play much for the most part, but drop 200 bucks each easily at the clubs and bars.

[olds442jetaway]

Interesting stats and curves

[wildman49]

Here is another slow down sign. In Feb. I took on a part time job 2-3 days a week stocking cookies, crackers elt. When I started my case count that was delivered to the stores to be worked was over 100, last month it was 70-80. As I head out today only 38 cases. Got an email last week from boss that things are slow hours will be cut. Guess people spending there money on gas not cookies.

[olds442jetaway]

And package weights continue to shrink to hide new inflated prices. I remember it started with ice cream. 64 oz to 48. Our brains are not geared to that just the price. Mine is though. I’m always doing true price calculations in my head. Another Geek spin off from VP. Many times nowadays believe it or not the larger package per ounce of stuff is higher than the smaller pack. Seeing that more and more as people stock ip fearing shortages. They won’t trick me though. I have caught them lately oh humus, cereal, and pudding. My gut tells me its not the retail store doing that, it’s the manufacturers and wholesalers.

[olds442jetaway]

Bought some Sqqq today. Will dump it tomorrow if I am still ahead on it. Have a limit sell order in.

[dinghy]

Here's another thing I don't understand. Crude oil futures:



Blue line is cash/spot price. Then the other lines are further out in time. Orange line Dec 2023, turquoise Dec 2025, yellow Dec 2027. Futures are predicting a decline from $114 currently to only $65 by the end of 2027.

This is known as backwardation. Although not evident from the chart, I presume the normal condition is contango as happened in 2020. Cash price plunged below $20, but everyone understood it was an anomaly.

Energy is only one component of the economy, but it's hard to maintain 8% inflation when gas prices are plunging.

I'm trying to figure out how to do a similar chart for gold. Gold is projected to rise. Currently $1825, December 2027 futures price is $2035. But that's only about 2% increase per year.

And we know 5 to 10 year Treasury yields are below 3%. Markets do not believe inflation will persist at these levels. Here's the same oil chart from above, but zoomed in year-to-date:



Blue line is still trending higher, but the long-dated pricing is actually slipping lower.

[FAA]

Uneasy with Disney $105, and I don’t even own it.

[dinghy]

Uneasy with Disney $105, and I don’t even own it.

Don't leave your young kids alone with it.

I own PARA (CBS Viacom Paramount), which is +7% to 30 after-hours because Warren Buffett disclosed a big position. I think that only gets me back to about even because I started buying around 35.