MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[tech58]

Case that sounds like a very good gamble, with very high probability of a win.
If you are stopped out before 12/16 ex-dividend you lose .9%, if not you gain 2.75%.
Are you still in? If so you will probably be out as the normal ex-dividend drop occurs but still profitable.
I think?

[olds442jetaway]

I checked out PFLT right after I read your text. I picked up some up as well within a penny of your price. Looks good to me as well. I will be happy just to maintain price and collect the dividend.

[dinghy]

Today I'm buying VALE, priced below $9.50.

Today I'm buying VALE, priced below $8.50 .

[TripleTriple]

Today I'm buying VALE, priced below $9.50.

Today I'm buying VALE, priced below $8.50 .

Or, you could wait until next month when it's priced below $7.50.

[dinghy]

Or, you could wait until next month when it's priced below $7.50.

Well we know it can't go to 6.50 because there's no font for it.



You used the biggest one .

[olds442jetaway]

I’m going to have to wait awhile. I own it at 9.81. Worse case scenario, I will just sell it for a tax loss to offset other gains, then buy it. back after 30 days for 6 bucks or so. Vale market cap is way down and iron ore prices have been dropping. Price targets still in the 11-15 range, but who knows

[olds442jetaway]

Vale has a lot of work to do improving its mines in Brazil. That said copper prices may keep rising in 2025 and demand in China should go up too. Vale hopes to dramatically increase copper production so its kind of a wait and see on the stock price.

[dinghy]

Vale has a lot of work to do improving its mines in Brazil.

The market prices VALE at a PE of 4. I would say the market has a lot of work to do rerating its valuations.

I picked VALE as an example, but the entire country is cheap imo. I own the FLBR country ETF, plus other individual selections including Braskem (BAK) and Petrobras (PBR A).

The US and Brazil have roughly similar populations, and are similarly resource-rich. But in market-cap, the US is 75% of the world, while Brazil is <1%. To prefer the US, you have to expect continued widening of the gap -- which is already at an all-time extreme. The US has been expanding its share for 35 years. That's an extraordinarily mature (relative) bull market.

Sentiment is similarly lopsided. Anyone who's even aware of the companies is waiting until they stop going down.

I think the correct posture here is to own the full spectrum of natural resource companies -- oil & gas, base metals, and precious metals. Each category is driven by somewhat different factors, which should smooth out the volatility.

[olds442jetaway]

I’ve got that covered, but still can’t get my arms around Bitcoin. If I ever do, it would probably be FBTC.

[olds442jetaway]

Just a bit more on Vale. While the p/e is important, there are so many factors tugging at the company this way or that, ( all in the news ), that going forward their earnings could remain under pressure. I also noticed that we will be getting the smallest dividend since 2018. I don’t know the payment date yet. Anyway, I will keep it awhile and see what happens. The Country of Brazil itself has a lot of influence in the company as well.