MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[dinghy]

Assuming a recession, I guess late next year. SP up two straight months is enough of a sign for me after this mess. Or whenever Fed halts QT.

In my opinion, the problem with that idea is you'll likely be paying much higher prices because the market will already have sniffed out the good news.

If your schedule permits and you haven't previously done so, I suggest looking in on the market Wednesday afternoon during JJ's press conference. If he merely uses a different adjective than anticipated, stocks can move 1% in an instant.

[FAA]

They always hang on his every word and parse them relentlessly. Can't see live. Even if I could, I'm powerless to act and would only be another rubbernecker. That's a bad reference. Of course, I hope for the best. As far as a turnaround, whenever the street pundits anticipate a QT halt and form enough of a groundswell consensus, that's probably go time.

[dinghy]

As far as a turnaround, whenever the street pundits anticipate a QT halt and form enough of a groundswell consensus, that's probably go time.

That's definitely a hot-button issue, although it has at least a couple of aspects because the Fed is not only hiking rates but also attempting to run off its balance sheet. So far it seems more committed to the hikes than the runoff.

[FAA]

That got swept under the rug in all the chaos. They still need to unwind all prior generosity.

[olds442jetaway]

I have to repeat my earlier post from the weekend this could be a rough week. The only positive for me I may be able to sell my SQQQ at a decent profit will have to wait and see. I was only up .17 percent today, but my one lonely IRA not in cash was up .27 percent. By the way, I am a gold bug myself. I read why it isn’t much higher, but can’t get my arms around it. The new generation is too hung up on digital tech stuff. As a kid, we would pan in local streams, fool the other kids with pyrite, even dream of becoming prospectors. My biggest thrill growing up was saving up enough money to buy a tiny Mexican gold coin from the local coin store. Of course back then, we had almost no money to save. Hard work though.

[dinghy]

By the way, I am a gold bug myself. I read why it isn’t much higher, but can’t get my arms around it. The new generation is too hung up on digital tech stuff.

There was a lot of talk about Bitcoin replacing the function of gold, but I hear less of that now that Bitcoin is -70% from the high. Also I think the tight correlation of Bitcoin with tech stocks indicates Bitcoin has been more of a speculative asset than a store of value.

One gold investor I follow listed the important drivers of gold as: negative real interest rates, monetary disorder, geopolitical turmoil, and loss of confidence in central bankers. I think all of those are either in progress or imminent.

I've been more surprised by the weakness of silver, currently trading at 18.50.

In my view, the risk diminishes as the prices decline. AEM, NEM and PAAS are all below their 2006 highs (dividend-adjusted), and NEM is within striking distance of its 1987 peak.

[olds442jetaway]

I don’t know how much inflation has hurt the gold mines, but I think their cost to harvest the gold is between 700 - 800 per ounce. Even at 1,700 an ounce, that gives them a huge cushion. I have a feeling the world demand just isn’t there at the moment. Hope I am wrong. It’s my only hedge against inflation

[dinghy]

I think their cost to harvest the gold is between 700 - 800 per ounce. Even at 1,700 an ounce, that gives them a huge cushion.

Latest numbers:

AEM (2022) - cash cost 750, AISC 1025
NEM (Q2 2022) - cash cost 932, AISC 1199
PAAS (2022) - cash cost 1020, AISC 1303
PAAS (2022) SILVER - cash cost 11.45, AISC 15.25

AISC = all-in sustaining cost.

A year ago, NEM was 755/1035. By-product base metal costs also increased substantially.

Gold miners are still solidly profitable. It's getting tight for silver miners.

Newmont had some adversities that appear to be company-specific. Newmont does not hedge energy costs, whereas Agnico and others do. Newmont paid up for an expensive employee profit-sharing program. And production impediments occurred at individual mines.

Everyone hates them at the bottom. Here's a sample tweet:

"Margins are getting crushed and gold is moving lower. Why does anyone want to own them right now? Unless you are a masochist"

Maybe I am a masochist, but I think I'm someone who appreciates a good bargain. The stocks are on sale for half off. Can anyone give me an example of a stock that's down 50% without any accompanying bad news?

[olds442jetaway]

Nope. The one thing I worry about is the attempted brainwashing of people into thinking paper currency is more valuable than a hunk of metal that is only good for making earrings And yes, the brainwashing is going on especially with naive younger people. Many have probably never held a gold coin or nugget in their hand. I remember holding my first Krugerrand gingerly so as not to wear off the gold gingerly for an hour by the rim. This was before everyone including the US got on the bandwagon making gold coins for retail. Maybe in school they should show footage of people wheeling around a wheelbarrow full of paper money in Socialist countries to buy a loaf of bread. Fat chance of that happening with the Socialist teachers and professors continuing to poison our youth. In 2018, a couple of pounds of carrots cost 3,000,000 Bolivars in Venezuela.

[dinghy]

The one thing I worry about is the attempted brainwashing

That's a factor, but I think it also heightens the concerns of non-brainwashed people. Also afaik, the gold price is primarily driven by China and India, so you have to consider those situations.

Longer-term there's a risk of punitive measures such as windfall profit taxes if we have a legislature filled with Liz Warren and Bernie Sanders clones.