MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[dinghy]

Is this right? A year ago, the 1-year Treasury yield was 0.01%.

Today it closed at 4.04%.

That's gonna leave a mark.

[olds442jetaway]

Probably. That is about what my money market was paying.

[wildman49]

Triple top chart breakout for SQQQ don't get more bullish then that to get short the market.

Many funds people was hiding in giving it up like XLU down 3% for the week, XLV down 2%

[dinghy]

These suddenly higher rates are going to break stuff. And the punishment is only inflicted on people who didn't create the problem. The feds aren't required to belt-tighten at all. Instead of laundering military-industrial dollars through the Mid East, now the kleptocracy is conducted in the Mid East AND Ukraine. Instead of spraying out thousand-dollar pandemic stimmy checks, now the crooked politicians gift ten thousand-dollar debt relief to blue-haired Sociology majors so their cats can continue living in luxury.

Triple top chart breakout for SQQQ don't get more bullish then that to get short the market.

I'll wait for the quadruple top breakout.

[olds442jetaway]

Quick 10 percent in and out on sqqq this week. Helped by idiot Harris’s statement on the Southern Border being secure and Fed Ex forecasting global recession.

[dinghy]

Quick 10 percent in and out on sqqq this week.

Good for you. I was afraid you were just sitting with it.

Helped by idiot Harris’s statement on the Southern Border being secure

Kamala knows she can lie without consequence. Our only power is to vote Republican, in which case a few of the illegals will be forwarded to blue-state hellholes. But we have no power whatsoever to ship the illegals back to wherever the frick they came from.

[olds442jetaway]

When I was 7 or 8, we made paper airplanes and if it was a good one it would fly 30 feet or so and easily across the classroom. The advance mail in paper ballots already arriving in droves in some places, I trust even less than how far my paper airplane might travel.

[dinghy]

The advance mail in paper ballots already arriving in droves in some places, I trust even less than how far my paper airplane might travel.

This is a reason why I'm investing internationally.

Imagine measuring each country for its government control of the economy. Zero would be perfect capitalism with no government. 100 would be total communist utopia.

I want to invest in countries that are moving closer to zero. The problem with USA is we have a well-publicized tradition of restrained government, but have stealthily been moving higher and are on track to continue in the wrong direction. USA stocks enjoy unwarranted premium valuations.

I'd rather be in places like Brazil and Poland, where they still have the aftertaste of previous lunacy. In 10 years, I may be buying the Venezuela ETF.

[olds442jetaway]

I am very afraid for this Country and the direction we are moving in. I understand your logic. Soros seeds every socialist candidate he can find. Even local elections. I could go on, but will try and keep it to market happenings. Speaking of which, I had picked up sqqq again. Just need a couple of more points and I am out again. I think it is headed that way.

[dinghy]

Speaking of which, I had picked up sqqq again. Just need a couple of more points and I am out again. I think it is headed that way.

FOMC announcement comes Wednesday at 2 pm. Expected hike amount is 75 bips, but 100 bips is still considered possible.

I posted earlier that stocks have tended to stabilize in the remaining months after a bad start to the year. The big exception in the modern era was 2008. Here's my attempt at a comparison chart:



Ticker symbol is SPY. Both years are shown through ~ Sep 19th only. In 2008, SPY was down nearly 20%. And again in 2022, SPY is down nearly 20%.

What happened next? Now here's full-year 2008:



Stocks crashed.

First week of October, SPY plunged >20%.

But the selling was over by Thanksgiving. Tax-loss selling is sometimes considered a market risk in December, but December 2008 was an up month.