MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

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dinghy
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Re: MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

Post by dinghy »

Monthly employment report came in hot today, crashing bond and gold prices. Market is now expecting a 75 bip hike 9/21, and 50 bips 11/2. Current is 2.25 (to 2.5), so the new rate would be ~3.50 before election day.

I refuse to believe it. I'm seeing chatter from David Rosenberg and others that today's numbers don't fit at all with other data. And it's unclear to me why Obama would want hikes so close to the election (11/8).

1-year Treasury yield:

Image

I like it. Last several weeks I've been de-risking my bond durations, so I'm now heavily concentrated in the 2 to 3 year range. I'm using VGSH and SCHO interchangeably (to avoid wash sales on transactions). This is the best yield available in 15 years, and I expect bonus capital appreciation.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

Scrappy day for gold miners. GDX was nearly -4% in the first few minutes, but recovered the entire loss to finish unch at the close of after-hours.

Jim Cramer was echoed today by Carter Worth, who is possibly the best of the CNBC bunch. Worth presented a long-term chart showing that Barrick Gold is unchanged since 1990. It's extraordinary how badly the miners have lagged the gold price.

I own Barrick, but I'm bigger into AEM and a couple of others.

FAA
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Post by FAA »

Markets: +0.23%, -0.16%, -0.50%. I was -0.41% today. My firm just bought me Ser B 2032 bonds, 1.875%. If only "active management" included trading. Only way I could have avoided my hole this year.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

As to SQQQ, if it is a loser by year end, I will just use it to offset other gains. I somehow think this is still a bear market bounce. Those can go on for weeks, but we will see. If it is a continued uptrend, so much the better. I have no confidence in gold prices at the moment. My Pru came out with a big charge to shore up reserves and I was late to the plate to pick up some more. If I had, I would have snapped up a nice 5 point gain and dumped my second batch in 3 days. Sitting on my first batch till it gets back to 102. That could be a while yet. In the meantime, I am slowly gaining ground overall and continuing to jump on 3 percent CDs for 8-9 months. I will take it. No tax consequences in the Roth’s. I think the CDS trend is a steady upswing with more Fed tightening on the way.
As to the casino, I am having my worst year ever as a percentage return of coin in. Everyone I talk to has the same story. I am gunshy for now of continued repeated losing sessions and concentrating on the market and hoping to recoup some of the Bizarro disasters.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

You will see here what being late to the plate can cost you if you miss the window. Would have been in and out on Pru on my second batch in a day
Sorry, photo memory full Anyway, 5 points missed in one day 8/3-8/4

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

FAA wrote:
Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:50 pm
My firm just bought me Ser B 2032 bonds, 1.875%. If only "active management" included trading.
That's a creative purchase. I don't even know what it is. The yield is low, so presumably either they bargain-hunted and paid below par, or it includes equity exposure/convertibility.
olds442jetaway wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:31 am
Would have been in and out on Pru on my second batch in a day
Sorry, photo memory full Anyway, 5 points missed in one day 8/3-8/4
PRU:

Image
olds442jetaway wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:05 am
As to the casino, I am having my worst year ever as a percentage return of coin in. Everyone I talk to has the same story.
I really thought you had figured it out this time. Too bad your decisions affected everyone else, but they knew the risks when they walked through the door.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

As to figuring out the casino, it is more of a discipline failure than failure of playing the martingale Clone. Winning a little on nickels and advancing to dollars can be and usually is a disaster with the same nickel or quarter bankroll. I plan to stick with that method of play if I can get myself under control.
As to the market, I don’t think anyone can really figure that out in the short run. Considering everything, I’m not too bad this year. Down 8 percent for the last 12 months. Still a chance to get close to even before year end. Other than a few trades here and there, I am content with 3 percent CDs which I am 99 percent sure will be 4 percent for 12 months before too long. I can’t get a handle on the FAA 1.875 or so bond play.
Also I am just curious…..who has gone for the nearly 10 percent I bonds? I haven’t yet. Just hate to have money tied up with the government and use their junky web site. It seems like a no lose opportunity. I just haven’t done it yet.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:46 pm
I can’t get a handle on the FAA 1.875 or so bond play.
Also I am just curious…..who has gone for the nearly 10 percent I bonds?
I may be lost here, but based on my googooing, series B is associated with new companies that are not yet ready to IPO. Bondholders would likely have preferential access to IPO shares.

I remember when everyone was IPO crazy, but that doesn't seem to be a big thing anymore.

I did my Treasury Direct purchase in February. This is what I see now:

Image

Interest payments only come semiannually, so I expect to see an interest credit transaction later this month.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Good for you. Guess I should get it done for the Mrs and I

FAA
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Post by FAA »

Yes, seems below par at $92.14. I am unclear, but will refrain from questions until it loses money.

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