MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

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Eduardo
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Re: MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

Post by Eduardo »

notes1 wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:40 am
the one area you may not have considered is the FED. never has more money been poured into rescuing the economy and propping up the markets. that is why the markets are where they are!
Yes, that is part of what makes the current situation difficult/impossible to judge. I've considered it... I just don't know how it should be considered. :lol: These events are unprecedented. The fed is playing a huge role, but there is no way to know the true long term impact. The market generally has a long term view but it seems to be betting on a pretty quick recovery. Not just locally, but around the world, I see some significant trouble ahead in ways that normally make the market have second thoughts. Is the fed pumping in dollars enough to offset that? Could be. But even if we assume the best with regard to the virus and unemployment, that honestly isn't what scares me the most. My biggest fear is whatever is next around the bend that we haven't even considered, because the world is just so volatile right now.

notes1
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Post by notes1 »

i have no crystal ball and as i have mentioned before, i have a greatly reduced risk portfolio. but, the old adage is 'never fight the fed', and that is exactly what many investors are counting on. they believe the FED has essentially put a 'floor' on the indices.

that being said, what has worked in the past, will likely continue to work, until it DOESN'T. hows that for wall street double talk. i can claim i was right no matter what happens. that is exactly what the experts on TV do everyday.

like you, i have a hard time believing what some are selling. that is why our portfolio is as low risk as it is. i am no longer licensed to give advice, so i will just say this;

-know your limitations, investing is hard. for most, mutual funds and ETF's are the best solution.
-invest for the long term, know your time horizon. and, don't try to time the market, you will likely fail.
-invest/save all you can. skip going to the casino, until you are well on your way of achieving your goal.
-don't base your decision on what somebody (me) on a VP website says. get a pro to help.

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

I have a confession to make. My portfolio is 98% stocks and stock mutuals so very high risk.
Have not had the hair to add everything up until close of markets
today. That is since 2/14 so almost 5 months of head in the sand.
VOILA only 2.8% down from that Feb. high. :D :D :up:
Somebody has got to be even or ahead.Come-on guys check it out.

Antebellum Reb
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Post by Antebellum Reb »

I remember the time Obama gave a press conference around 2012-2013 back when people were still struggling with the lingering recession, and he basically said what notes1 just said above, don't go to Vegas(i.e. Casinos) until or unless your overall financial situation is stable. Everyone knew what he meant and why he said it but Steve "flash pants" Wynn pitched a fit along with "Shelly" Adelson and company....

Sea Lion
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Post by Sea Lion »

-0.20 as of this morning.

Carcounter
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Post by Carcounter »

I'm more afraid of getting the virus than losing money in AC. Guess I'll wait awhile.

pokerpokerpoker
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Post by pokerpokerpoker »

Although I don't track it too closely, I noticed today that my 401k was at the highest $ I'd ever seen it. I never touched it during the pandemic.

But now with all the uncertainty of the: pandemic, riots, and the upcoming election; I can't imagine why the market is roaring. Twice today I had moved all my 401K stocks into cash, but chickened out before hitting the "do it" key. Time is on my side (44 YO), but Damn, locking it in/up seems lime the smart move.

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

Totally agree on the why part PPP.
Higher than 2/16? That would be a winner. :up:
I am closing in on even and am a bit puckered also, for the same reasons you mentioned.
Classic dilemma Fear and Greed. :?

notes1
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Post by notes1 »

poker and tech, if one is worried, there is a middle ground. no one ever went broke taking some gains off the table.

seems tech is older than poker. each of them might be wise to do something different than the other. when i was working, i generally suggested folks in their 20-mid 50's, not try and time the market, keep adding. but, who could find fault with taking some off the table, especially after 2019 gains and all that is going on.

good luck.

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

You got the older part right Notes.
My investment portfolio is totally separate from my income portfolio so it's next generation oriented.
They are in your time frame to "stay the course" as Bogle would say.
All i do is look back and say DAAAM missed another one. :ouch:

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