MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

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dinghy
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Re: MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

Post by dinghy »

FAA wrote:
Fri May 27, 2022 4:30 pm
I was punch drunk on losses.
As my new neighbor's 6-year-old explained, stocks fuctuate.
The other shoe drops with Fed QT inception.
The QT is already anticipated imo, but markets are on alert for any deviations from plan.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Fri May 27, 2022 4:42 pm
I am very happy with Fidelity.
Me too. I haven't done much with the ATP software. My Windows computer is slow, so I kinda wish they had something web-based.

I haven't found much to criticize. Fido's money-market funds have high expense ratios of about 0.4%. Vanguard is only 0.1%, so Vanguard's yields run about 3/10ths higher. But Vanguard has some drawbacks. Vanguard does not want to be a full-service brokerage. Extended trading is only 90 minutes immediately after the close, and not at all before the open. Vanguard disallows many ADRs and anything inverse or leveraged. And Vanguard seems to have more outages than Fido.

FAA
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Post by FAA »

I was +2.1% today. The portfolio looks like it got a whole new makeover. Unlikely to endure, given the thin volume. QT may be anticipated, but its destructive potential is sure to spawn unanticipated actions. Six year olds? You’re so patronizing.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Economy is still contracting. Consumers are still spending the remainder of free Covid money or running up their credit cards like drunken sailors. Soon savings will be pulled if not already. Gas, rent, supply chain, and broke State and local Government isn’t going away. Watch out the second half of next week. I just have a gut feeling, but like anyone could be wrong. I won’t be buying at these levels. Waiting for further contraction. It is coming I still believe. If I am wrong, so much the better. I can recover more of my over 10 percent loss since Jan 1 still on my charts.

FAA
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Post by FAA »

I agree. The professionals are looking for the “no mas” cry uncle session. I’m going to move heaven and earth Tuesday to get myself untangled from most of my ill advised technology portfolio. For all I know, it may be my last such opportunity.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

FAA wrote:
Fri May 27, 2022 8:42 pm
Six year olds? You’re so patronizing.
It was based on a true story!

Kids often have a better perspective on reality unclouded by wishful thinking. My point was that this is what stocks do. It shouldn't come as a surprise.
QT may be anticipated, but its destructive potential is sure to spawn unanticipated actions.
Nope, the destruction is caused by QE which hollows out the economy. The Fed is continuing to buy mortgage bonds, further inflating the biggest housing bubble of all time.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/stat ... 9084640257

It's never been more difficult to afford rent or a home purchase. So why is the Fed doing it? To benefit their buddies at BlackRock:

Image

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

FAA wrote:
Sat May 28, 2022 4:36 am
I’m going to move heaven and earth Tuesday to get myself untangled from most of my ill advised technology portfolio. For all I know, it may be my last such opportunity.
What are you going to do with the money?

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Answering for FAA though he will have his own response. Corner of the monopoly board. Non inflation protected free parking. Hopefully pass go one more time and collect 200 on a quick sqqq play. Try and enjoy the nice weather and not give the casino more money. Do a wait and see to see if the inflated new car prices come down. I hate buying a new car without either big rebates or big discounts. So far, I see no sign of that.

dinghy
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Post by dinghy »

olds442jetaway wrote:
Sat May 28, 2022 7:48 am
Non inflation protected free parking.
But only until something better comes along. I see a lot of economic indicators that have gone haywire. This is the personal savings rate:

Image

Click here for the full chart back to 1960: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

The volatility is unprecedented. I expect continued severe swings in the economy and financial markets, creating buying and selling opportunities for the attentive.
Do a wait and see to see if the inflated new car prices come down.
New vehicles CPI:

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR000 ... _view=data

Image

Still going up every month, but I didn't realize we had such a lengthy period of stable prices in previous years. The index hung around the mid-140s level for a long time.

Used cars have already reversed (slightly):

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR000 ... _view=data

Image

IIRC, lumber was one of the first inflationary items to make headlines. Here's the latest:

Image

That is mental. How do you run a business if you don't know whether your costs will be 250 or 1500 from one quarter to the next.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

I think one of the big problems is businesses see their costs going up. Instead of raising prices accordingly, they raise them more anticipating further imminent price increases on their end.
I have two examples of this first hand. I have two local diners I frequent for breakdast and have done so for nearly 50 years. They are run by the same families. One has redone their menus 3 times just in the last 9 weeks. The other has changed the menus twice, but they have cross outs and higher prices in marker on select items. This will bite them in the behind and is already doing so. Traffic is less including mine by over 50 percent. The increases have been dramatic.
Using round numbers, two eggs, toast, and potatoes used to be 3.50 and coffee, 1.65. Skipping the incremental increases, the final prices are now just under 7 dollars for the food and just under 3.00 for coffee. There is no way their costs have doubled in 2 months and there is no way I am going to pay almost 11 dollars with tax plus a 3 buck tip for 2 eggs and coffee anymore.
I live in a lower middle class area near a big city not in Manhattan or downtown Miami. This can’t go on like this forever or this country is in real trouble. By the way, both Diners have already had to let staff go and have family members fill in. This is one example. I have some family members with small businesses with similar stories.

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