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I’m thinking that 30% cash protected is still very low. And hopefully they were dumped this morning before the most recent bloodbath. My heart is in my mouth every single day.

FAA wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:18 pm

My heart is in my mouth every single day.

Yes, it's very relaxing.

New month same as the old month.

Last night, Bitcoin spiked to nearly 20.5k, but has pulled back to the 19k pre-spike area.

Gold now <1800, silver <20. GDX <27. I am continuing to fling money at the gold miners. Costs (all-in sustaining) look to be in the 1100 to 1200 range, translating to record profit levels and chunky cash flows. The bigger companies are sharply raising dividends and some are buying back shares.

The miners get no respect at all. Although GDX only has about 15 years of history, we can look instead at the HUI gold bugs index. Current level <220 is below where it traded in 2003. Gold was then priced <400.

Is that supposed to make sense?

Investors are clearly cash minded. I see that my portfolio's Cash section is undergoing change. I hope it means an actual significant inflow and not just them buying another increasingly extravagant tech stock.

FAA wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:38 am

Investors are clearly cash minded.

Hopefully you'll earn some yield on your cash. On my settlement money-market accounts, I'm seeing 1.0% at Fidelity and 1.4% at Vanguard. I think my highest bank savings rate is 1.2%, at Marcus/Goldman Sachs.

I still like VGSH, but the 2-year Treasury yield has retracted from 3.4% last month to 2.8% today. Fed rate hike expectations are deflating. They're now expected at stop at 3.25% in December, and it may be sooner than that if you ask me.

An expert opined, “They’ll chicken out.” Succinct analysis. Nice unexpected PM relief rally today.

FAA wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:22 pm

Nice unexpected PM relief rally today.

At the lows Friday morning, GDX was -35% since April, GDXJ -40%.

As noted I've been buying stocks, but the prices are collapsing so fast that my total bond value continues to far outweigh my stocks.

I'm adding stocks mainly in three categories:

(1) gold & silver miners
(2) (other) commodity producers
(3) internationals

It's fascinating to watch the politicians blame anyone but themselves for inflation. And I'm not singling out Biden because Nixon was the same, and Trump is partly responsible.

By almost any measure, international stocks are broadly cheaper than the US. I did a compilation of about 50 international ETFs including countries and regions. For 5-year total return, the US is tippy-top at 11-12%. Saudi Arabia (KSA) is the only other country in double digits.

Excluding USA, the remaining world is <3%. VEU is priced lower than 5 years ago. The only gain is from dividends. That's true of most country and regional ETFs.

Latest available #s from Barclays, USA has the highest CAPE (cyclically adjusted PE) among over two dozen countries tracked.

dinghy wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:43 am

5-year total return

* 5-year AVERAGE ANNUAL total return

King of bad timing. I do some selling on Friday. Portfolio +0.13% today.

dinghy wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:43 am

FAA wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:22 pm

Nice unexpected PM relief rally today.

I'm adding stocks mainly in three categories:

(1) gold & silver miners
(2) (other) commodity producers
(3) internationals

The FED am sure has something to do with the monster dollar rally to 110, trying to break Oil price and got its wish today, but all commodity's get hurt. I been buying SLV and NUGT then wait for dollar to roll over.

FAA wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:52 pm

King of bad timing.

This was my portfolio today: