Video Poker Forum

wildman49 wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:12 pm

I did buy small today XOM, USO, GLDM,SLV when the dollar rolls over commodity's will rip.

The market action is not making sense to me. Here's the year-to-date:



Energy stocks are collapsing. XES is now negative for the year, ignoring dividends.

So far so good, because CNBC says investors fear recession:



But if the fear is recession, how can you have TLT crashing?



The dollar index usually tracks along with TLT, but this year they're polar opposites.

The recent action looks like across-the-board panic liquidation -- which could continue because we know October is a vulnerable month. But once the bottom is in, I think either TLT or XLE rips higher.

I want to own both. Just have to decide which energy stocks to add. My PBR and YPF have performed so strongly that I'm preferring to find other, more beaten-down names. Will probably start with XES.

Edit: Also like the CRAK refiners ETF, although it's a little expensive at 0.6% annually.

Stocks rolling over after a rally attempt.

I'm into my unsettled cash now. Fidelity warning message:

dinghy wrote: ↑

Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:31 am

The market action is not making sense to me.

But if the fear is recession, how can you have TLT crashing?

Fed dumping bonds off balance sheet, yield going higher. You need a short position to help off set your losses. This is not your normal market, The Fed is going to crash the DOW if he don't wake up.

The next bear market rally lighten up and get some short fund.

I bailed on my SLV,GLDM,USO the dollar like a rocket no telling when it will stop, got in XLU today got to play safe for next few months.

TESLA and APPLE still green as I said when we see them 2 crack to the down side it might be safe to get long.

wildman49 wrote: ↑

Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:15 am

Fed dumping bonds off balance sheet

Anything's possible with the Fed, but I don't see why they would sell secretly.

You need a short position to help off set your losses.

No thanks. If I feel I'm excessively long, I'll sell a portion and collect 3 to 4% yield on the cash proceeds.

-1%, -1.1%, -0.6%. I was -0.55% today. 3,200 SP prediction means another -10%.

I was an active buyer today. Just trying to keep my stock exposure meaningful as market values shrivel.

Bought gold miners as usual.

Energy was weak again and closed on the lows. Other than CRAK, all my buys were LatAm: BAK, EC, PARXF, PBR.

Internationals lagged the US again. Bought EPOL, FLKR & VXUS. Almost bought FLIY because Italy elected an enemy of the New World Order.

Also bought bonds. EMLC, VWOB, VGLT. Had to sell more short-duration Treasuries to raise cash.

-0.2%, -0.4%, +0.25%. I was -0.06% today. I know that I am long in the market. Hard to break the oversight cold turkey.

Tuesday I bought more VGLT, and a few stocks.

TLT needs one more mildly bad day to break below 100. It topped at 180 (in 2020).

Year to date total return: TLT -31%, BND -15%, SPY -23%, VXUS -27%.

From Twitter. These numbers don't include Tuesday's action:



Including Tuesday, I think we're now the 2nd-worst year ever. Historically, these rare bear moves have been unsustainable. The worst year, 1931, was followed by big gains for the remainder of the 1930s. The 1970s were more green than red.

History says this is a major buying opportunity. Records exist to be broken, but I'm not willing to bet on outcomes that have never happened before.

+1.9%, +2%, +2%. I was +0.83% today. This offsets Monday and Tuesday. Unfortunately, only hump day.

I am personally -15% 2022. I will settle for a 1937-38 outcome. FDR and Congress were injecting the economy like there was no tomorrow, of course!