DEUCES WILD (NSUD) - Probability of Junk Hands

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QuadGod
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DEUCES WILD (NSUD) - Probability of Junk Hands

Post by QuadGod »

I play a fair amount of NSUD (Not So Ugly Deuces Wild), with the 99.73% payback (multi-line), following perfect strategy. As those who play this game know, you frequently have to discard all initial five cards. I was wondering what percentage of the time you discard all five cards on the dealt hand; it seems like this happens a great deal of time---I have had times where I've junked all five cards on 5, 6 or 7 consecutive dealt hands. On 5 or 10-play version, your credits can evaporate in a very short time. Just curious.

New2vp
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Post by New2vp »

17.36% for NSUD. This is not unusual for Deuces games. Airport Deuces is similar at 17.44%, while Full Pay Deuces is up to 19.07%.

Not high enough? Move up to Bonus Deuces and you will see 21.94% and 22.22% on the 99.45% and 98.80% versions.

And Double Bonus Deuces increases to 24% on a couple versions (99.81% and 98.61%).

Odds of getting 5 consecutive toss-em-all deals on the next 5 tries of NSUD is about 6300 to 1. 36,000 to 1 on the next 6, and 210,000 to 1 on the next 7.

Carcounter
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Post by Carcounter »

Wish this game was available in AC

stevel96a1
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Post by stevel96a1 »

Carcounter wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:48 am
Wish this game was available in AC
that game would be so good like a fpdw you think you could get a seat if it were offered? im thinking maybe 5 or 6am

QuadGod
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Post by QuadGod »

New2vp wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:23 pm
17.36% for NSUD. This is not unusual for Deuces games. Airport Deuces is similar at 17.44%, while Full Pay Deuces is up to 19.07%.

Not high enough? Move up to Bonus Deuces and you will see 21.94% and 22.22% on the 99.45% and 98.80% versions.

And Double Bonus Deuces increases to 24% on a couple versions (99.81% and 98.61%).

Odds of getting 5 consecutive toss-em-all deals on the next 5 tries of NSUD is about 6300 to 1. 36,000 to 1 on the next 6, and 210,000 to 1 on the next 7.
Once again, thanks for your input, New2vp. My guess was that the junk hand hit about 15-20% of the time, so your calculations confirm my internal instinct from many years of play.

Just when you feel that a NSUD game is heating up, it can dash your hopes. I usually play a 5-play dollar version, starting with 500 credits per session. If I reach a 500 credit profit (or multiples thereof) then I conclude the session. A number of times I have reached a profit of around 450 or 475—nearly tasting success—-then hit a dry spell, where the profit is soon erased (and occasionally the initial stake, too). Of course, a few times on my last hand (with say 25-40 credits remaining in the session), I have hit four deuces and reached my goal. You never know with this game.

And, based on your figures, I plan on steering clear of Bonus and Double Bonus Deuces.

Carcounter
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Post by Carcounter »

stevel96a1 wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:40 pm
Carcounter wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:48 am
Wish this game was available in AC
that game would be so good like a fpdw you think you could get a seat if it were offered? im thinking maybe 5 or 6am
It's still a less than 100% paytable and most VP players will make mistakes. The casino will still make money. We have 99.69% SDB and 99.75% 9/6 JOB multi strikes at Borgata and a 99.92% Joker game at the Ocean, so it wouldn't be that crazy. Just not an AC game, just as AC joker Wild is not a game you find anywhere else.

New2vp
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Post by New2vp »

QuadGod wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:06 pm
And, based on your figures, I plan on steering clear of Bonus and Double Bonus Deuces.
Interesting. Preferences are personal, so you should play the games that make you happiest.

Another thought: It may be more important to some to avoid games more based on the percentage of final hands, after the draw, that paid nothing, instead of the percentage of dealt hands where the optimal hold is zero cards. When there are more 0-card holds, you can generally play a little faster since you hit fewer buttons to hold the cards. And I realize that playing faster is less important to some, particularly those who play lesser games.

Of course, EV may be more important to many than either of the previously-mentioned metrics.

Final hands with zero payout (after the draw) on various games:

Jacks or Better 9-6 54.5%
Bonus Poker 8-5 54.5%
Full pay versions of:
Double Bonus 56.7%
Double Double Bonus 55.3%

NSUD 55.7%
Full pay versions of:
Bonus Deuces 55.9%
Double Bonus Deuces 55.2%

stevel96a1
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Post by stevel96a1 »

Carcounter wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:30 am
stevel96a1 wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:40 pm
Carcounter wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:48 am
Wish this game was available in AC
that game would be so good like a fpdw you think you could get a seat if it were offered? im thinking maybe 5 or 6am
It's still a less than 100% paytable and most VP players will make mistakes. The casino will still make money. We have 99.69% SDB and 99.75% 9/6 JOB multi strikes at Borgata and a 99.92% Joker game at the Ocean, so it wouldn't be that crazy. Just not an AC game, just as AC joker Wild is not a game you find anywhere else.
thats true but theres way more DW fans than SDB such a violent game on ur bankroll specially those dry spells where 4oak dont show up your out 500$ easy, and jacks multi isn't my cup of tea

i still think a 99.74 dw game would be flooded w/ players and the comps they give away would make the casino too upset to offer im still shocked ceasers offers 99.54 as boring as it is on progressive

FAA
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Post by FAA »

Caesars does want to retain some business and appear busy. It won’t kill their profits too much. Nice to throw the occasional goodwill bone. The bank’s location is in such a high traffic area that I get frustrated playing longer than forty minutes. CWs a big time PITA. Patrons are annoying as all hell to boot. Enjoy.

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