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TDB Volatility

Posted: Tue Apr 09, 2013 9:15 pm
by Lucky Larry
billyjoe,
These pictures are for you and other TDB players. I'm trying to learn the game. The "big hit" was the machine next to me. I had held 25 hands X 3 Aces+K 4 times and not one hit. Plus 25 hand (3) 2-4's + K over 150 hands an only one hit.

The second picture is one of my 100x1 results after my neighbor's big hit.

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My luck on TDB
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Re: TDB Volatility

Posted: Wed Apr 10, 2013 11:02 am
by BillyJoe
The hits in TDB can happen, Larry. As you know, though, the volatility of the game requires a bankroll to pursue.

Re: TDB Volatility

Posted: Wed Apr 10, 2013 2:33 pm
by Vman96
I had held 25 hands X 3 Aces+K 4 times and not one hit. Plus 25 hand (3) 2-4's + K over 150 hands an only one hit.

Well, when you have something like AAA + kicker or 222 + kicker on a multiplay TDB game the probability of bricking all of them (a full house is a "brick" too) is just:

(46/47)^N
where N is the number of hands played. Also ^ is an exponential sign. So that's 46/47 to the Nth power.

So with a 25-play machine, you should completely brick AAA + kicker:

(46/47)^25 = 0.58412 = 58.14% of the time

Doing it back to back would simply double the number of hands:
(46/47)^50 = 0.3412 = 34.12% of the time

Note the is the same math as the probability of bricking 4 to a Royal Flush. Sorry that you were part of the unlucky third this time! Some of your other pics make me think that's somewhat rare for you.

Re: TDB Volatility

Posted: Wed Apr 10, 2013 5:14 pm
by spxChrome


Did the same thing just this week playing 100 play got dealt trip Aces 3x and never pulled a 4th ace.  Then I hold 2 and pull 4 4x and hold 1 and pull 4 2x.  ok

Re: TDB Volatility

Posted: Wed Apr 10, 2013 8:45 pm
by Lucky Larry
The hits in TDB can happen, Larry. As you know, though, the volatility of the game requires a bankroll to pursue.

billyjoe,
I know I only have to watch Sweet C hit AWAK holding a single Ace or a pair of 2's and hitting 2'swK. I'm looking forward to more hands where the odds turn my way. Like my catching a Royal this weekend holding nothing.

I watched on TDB player who started with $400 and played only 20 hands - David left with $1,400 but I've seen many not have the bank roll to survive if the hits aren't coming.


Re: TDB Volatility

Posted: Wed Apr 10, 2013 8:46 pm
by Lucky Larry


Did the same thing just this week playing 100 play got dealt trip Aces 3x and never pulled a 4th ace.  Then I hold 2 and pull 4 4x and hold 1 and pull 4 2x.  ok

Chrome,
I know and understand. Kinda like I remarked to BJ. I held nothing and caught a Royal. Hopefully, the more I play this new game the more it will balance.

Re: TDB Volatility

Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 10:26 pm
by Vman96

I know I only have to watch Sweet C hit AWAK holding a single Ace or a pair of 2's and hitting 2'swK. I'm looking forward to more hands where the odds turn my way. Like my catching a Royal this weekend holding nothing.


Yep, saw it happen with the chick next to me on my birthday trip to Tunica. Held just an ace on a 9/5 TDB 3-play with Double STP, and she got AAA3 on the draw. Unfortunately by the time I called it a night (an ~hour later), she had lost most of it. This game really requires an iron stomach, imo.