It took the worst machine to break the streak

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
FloridaPhil
Video Poker Master
Posts: 6229
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am

Re: It took the worst machine to break the streak

Post by FloridaPhil »

My only personal experience with long term positive games has been playing on this website. I assume the games on this website are as random as the games in a casino, but I could be wrong. I play a lot of hands on this website. Not enough to make any claims, but enough to satisfy me that there is value in playing with an advantage. If I could play the same game in a casino, I could pay some bills.

When I go to the casino each week, I don't play the same way I do here. The games are different. I may change games at random. I may change denominations. I may modify the computer strategy to fit my own desires. Sometimes my results are better than the math predicts. Frequently they are not.

It is impossible for anyone to produce a math formula or computer simulation that can mimic what I do in a casino because they don't know what I will do until I do it. They also don't know how many hands I will play in my lifetime or where in the cycle I will quit. This is the problem I have with predicting future results based on odds alone.

What you can predict with certainty is that I will pay a price to play in a casino. There are very few players who don't. I could stay home and save my money. I would miss meeting with my friends and enjoying my time on the machines. Would I enjoy the games any better if they were positive? Probably not. I would be tempted to play bigger, which is exactly what the casino wants me to do.

applepear86
Forum Rookie
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2020 12:06 am

Post by applepear86 »

Player422738 wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:45 pm
Assuming accurate hand holdings, playing 36000 hands without a quad deuce is very unlikely (the probability is only 0.25%). I doubt if you have made playing errors like discarding the deuce by mistake.

Code: Select all

(1-1/6000.0)^36000 = 0.0024775
However I remember someone mentioned playing 100K hands without hitting a royal flush, that is actually a legit statement. The probability is 8.2%.

Code: Select all

(1-1/40000.0)^100000 = 0.08208
Sorry to bump an old thread, but 1 in 400 events happen all the time, actually quite regularly in the casino. The more you play a game, the more you will see very rare weird events happen. The last time I watched a scoreboard of an electronic roulette wheel, 13 unbroken reds in a row come up. Rare stuff happens all the time. If it wasn't for these random bad events, progressions exist that could beat these games. ;)

olds442jetaway
Video Poker Master
Posts: 6674
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm

Post by olds442jetaway »

I saw the same thing happen over 30 years ago on Roulette in Atlantic City. On top of it, I was betting the losing color. I have cited many ultra events in posts here on this site.

wildman49
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1014
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:45 am

Post by wildman49 »

Olds, my play is way down the biggest hit in the past 5 months is 800 bucks. BPD, when I have 300-400 bucks in free play I get excited,playing it off not playing on it am going to have a profit

Post Reply