Video Poker Forum

I have no time for reading this book, "The Doctrine of Chances Probability Aspects of Gambling", but the math wonks here may enjoy it and come up with more formulas to provide to us. There is a chapter on Video Poker.https://www.amazon.com/Doctrine-Chances ... B00DWKPJRY

the higher the sample size ,In video poker the more and more hands played , the closer you get to the expected value ! but no matter how large the sample size ,there is no guarantee the results will be EXACTLY the expected value . it may fall exactly on the EV , but that is ironicly unlikely ! I still cant spell!

advantage playe wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:42 pm

the higher the sample size ,In video poker the more and more hands played , the closer you get to the expected value ! but no matter how large the sample size ,there is no guarantee the results will be EXACTLY the expected value . it may fall exactly on the EV , but that is ironicly unlikely ! I still cant spell!

You may not be able to spell but you are right on.

tech58 wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:02 am

Hop,would you mind interpreting the formula in your last post for the math. challenged.
This is a thing i have been looking for, but was lost right away at 1-1/40000.
Ninth Grade level if possible,thanks in advance.

Still hung-up on this one. The post is in this thread on 2/14. Any help?

Gronbog wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:54 am

Asked and answered several times in various threads. N0 (N-zero) = Variance / ((house edge) ^ 2) is the number of hands needed for your expected result to equal one standard deviation. At that point you are into the long run.

I fail to see how the number of hands played has any effect on the results of future hands. The RNG does not know how many hands you have played. Each hand is independent of the last and the next.

You may play video poker for ten million hands. Your royals show up when they are suppose to and you conclude your math is accurate. In the next 10 million hands your royals go on hiatus and you lose money making your math wrong. On the 20 millionth hand, the machine pumps out 4 royals in a row. Where does luck stop and math take over?

As I have said msny times and believe......Short term results can be more than a lifetime and long term results infinity. Why do I believe this? After more than 20 million lifetime hands I am still under Royaled by nearly 50 percent.

Yesterday, while waiting for my favorite machine and watching a lady play 98.8 Bonus Deuces Wild on dollars for about an hour I had to put my glasses on to believe my eyes. She was holding single high cards, drawing to inside straights without any deuces, holding 2 cards to a flush with no deuces, etc. Guess what! She was ahead about 30 bucks after playing about an hour. She never hit a Royal or 4 deuces either!

Misery loves company OLDS . My first 8 yrs. of VP i had 60 royals, the last 8 yrs. 30. Apx. same level of play (i don't keep hand counts) so what is real??
Answering my own dumb question, what HAPPENS is real, and say's nothing about the future.

Jstark wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:46 am

FloridaPhil wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:42 am

According to my VPW software, the variance of 98.9% deuces wild at max coins (5) is 25.6219. How many hands must I play for the odds to determine my results?

98.9% with optimal strategy. Fairly certain most players are playing it at about 97%.

A return of 98.9% is s house edge of 1 - 0.989 = 0.011 = 1.1%. N0 is then 25.6219 / (0.011 ^ 2) = 211,752 hands.

If an average player only plays with a 97% return, then his N0 is 26.6219 / (0.03 ^ 2) = 29,580. Note that the poorer player reaches his (losing) destiny almost 10 times more quickly.

FloridaPhil wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:29 pm

Gronbog wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:54 am

Asked and answered several times in various threads. N0 (N-zero) = Variance / ((house edge) ^ 2) is the number of hands needed for your expected result to equal one standard deviation. At that point you are into the long run.

I fail to see how the number of hands played has any effect on the results of future hands. The RNG does not know how many hands you have played. Each hand is independent of the last and the next.

You may play video poker for ten million hands. Your royals show up when they are suppose to and you conclude your math is accurate. In the next 10 million hands your royals go on hiatus and you lose money making your math wrong. On the 20 millionth hand, the machine pumps out 4 royals in a row. Where does luck stop and math take over?

Playing a large enough number of hands does not predict the results of your future hands. It gets you to a point where your expected overall result will be very close to expected. From that point on, your actual result will continue to remain close to expected regardless of what happens in the (future) short and long term.

After N0 hands played, luck is starting to be overcome by the math. At 10 or 20 million hands played a few extra or missing royals will make little difference to your expected return vs actual. Their presence or absence are overwhelmed by the volume if your previous play.