Why VP Bet Switching is Unprofitable
Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:08 am
I created this post so other forum members might benefit from my experience. I do not claim to be a video poker expert. I do not claim to be able to beat the casinos. What I do claim, is to have 15 year's experience with VP bet incrementing strategies.
With these strategies, a player starts out with a small bet and increments the bet based on the flow of the game. Some players bet bigger when they are winning believing they are playing with the casino's money. Some players bet bigger when they are losing, believing a lull in the action means a better hand is coming. It is a great thrill to bet small, increase your bet and find yourself cashing in on a big jackpot.
All of these strategies are long term losers. What do I mean by this statement? If your goal is to hit big jackpots at any cost, they perform this function. If you were to play this way once, win big and never play VP again, you could claim to be a long term winner. All VP strategies work until they don't.
The problem with these strategies is you inevitably hit more of your jackpots at the smaller bets than the bigger bets. The non paying hands you play with the bigger bets eat up your profits faster than rare big bet jackpots can happen.
A lot of players criticized CS for this very reason. What they missed was CS was not created as a profit making strategy. It was created to allow a player on a budget to play more hands with less money. It's primary function was to limit coin-in, a proven way to reduce the cost to play negative games. Experts pointed out it was better to play single coin all the time instead of switching bets. They were right. The problem is no one wants to play single coin quarter VP all day unless there is some chance of hitting a max coin jackpot. CS allowed from this possibility at a cost. Because most of the hands were played for a quarter, the cost was minimal. I am not making this post to defend CS. I don't use it any more. Not because I think other's shouldn't. I want to be paid $1,000 for a royal flush instead of $62.50. You should too.
What is the most profitable way to play VP over time? Here is where the experts have it right. Playing net positive games accurately will give you the best chance of making a profit. Find a game that you enjoy. Play at a denomination you are comfortable with. Play as many coins as it takes to earn the royal bonus. Play as accurate as possible and stick with it. Most of us don't have positive VP games to play. Does this mean we are all losers? Yes and No. It means the more hands you play and the bigger your bets, the more it costs you to play them. If you can enjoy the casino experience at a reasonable cost, I call that a win.
I play negative VP games. Those are the games I have to play at the denomination I am most comfortable with. I play them small enough to limit my losses and big enough to get the casino to give me the "free stuff" I want. At the present time, my net cost to play about 300,000 hands of video poker averages less than $5,000 a year. Add in all the comped mini vacations we take together and the fun we get from the game and you have an enjoyable couples hobby for a cost much less than many other leisure activities.
Over the years we have tried every possible VP strategy you can think of and some you may not have thought of yet. We can tell you playing like the experts teach is the most effective. Playing quarter VP is a bargain. This is especially true with the new tax codes. There is a cost to play these games. You won't see the hand pay lady. You won't ever buy a new car off your profits You may be able to afford one since you're not giving your money to the casino in stacks of hundreds.
Before you respond to this post, know that I am not talking about playing positive VP in Vegas or anywhere else. I am not talking to Michael Jordan or Jerry Jones. I am talking to people who think tens of thousands of dollars is a lot of money to lose in a casino.
The casino has a huge advantage that we hardly ever talk about on this forum. They never run out of money. They can afford to wait out all your lucky spells so they can kill you in the down turns. If you have as much money as a casino and can wait them out, you may be able to beat them. For the majority of us, that's not a realistic goal.
With these strategies, a player starts out with a small bet and increments the bet based on the flow of the game. Some players bet bigger when they are winning believing they are playing with the casino's money. Some players bet bigger when they are losing, believing a lull in the action means a better hand is coming. It is a great thrill to bet small, increase your bet and find yourself cashing in on a big jackpot.
All of these strategies are long term losers. What do I mean by this statement? If your goal is to hit big jackpots at any cost, they perform this function. If you were to play this way once, win big and never play VP again, you could claim to be a long term winner. All VP strategies work until they don't.
The problem with these strategies is you inevitably hit more of your jackpots at the smaller bets than the bigger bets. The non paying hands you play with the bigger bets eat up your profits faster than rare big bet jackpots can happen.
A lot of players criticized CS for this very reason. What they missed was CS was not created as a profit making strategy. It was created to allow a player on a budget to play more hands with less money. It's primary function was to limit coin-in, a proven way to reduce the cost to play negative games. Experts pointed out it was better to play single coin all the time instead of switching bets. They were right. The problem is no one wants to play single coin quarter VP all day unless there is some chance of hitting a max coin jackpot. CS allowed from this possibility at a cost. Because most of the hands were played for a quarter, the cost was minimal. I am not making this post to defend CS. I don't use it any more. Not because I think other's shouldn't. I want to be paid $1,000 for a royal flush instead of $62.50. You should too.
What is the most profitable way to play VP over time? Here is where the experts have it right. Playing net positive games accurately will give you the best chance of making a profit. Find a game that you enjoy. Play at a denomination you are comfortable with. Play as many coins as it takes to earn the royal bonus. Play as accurate as possible and stick with it. Most of us don't have positive VP games to play. Does this mean we are all losers? Yes and No. It means the more hands you play and the bigger your bets, the more it costs you to play them. If you can enjoy the casino experience at a reasonable cost, I call that a win.
I play negative VP games. Those are the games I have to play at the denomination I am most comfortable with. I play them small enough to limit my losses and big enough to get the casino to give me the "free stuff" I want. At the present time, my net cost to play about 300,000 hands of video poker averages less than $5,000 a year. Add in all the comped mini vacations we take together and the fun we get from the game and you have an enjoyable couples hobby for a cost much less than many other leisure activities.
Over the years we have tried every possible VP strategy you can think of and some you may not have thought of yet. We can tell you playing like the experts teach is the most effective. Playing quarter VP is a bargain. This is especially true with the new tax codes. There is a cost to play these games. You won't see the hand pay lady. You won't ever buy a new car off your profits You may be able to afford one since you're not giving your money to the casino in stacks of hundreds.
Before you respond to this post, know that I am not talking about playing positive VP in Vegas or anywhere else. I am not talking to Michael Jordan or Jerry Jones. I am talking to people who think tens of thousands of dollars is a lot of money to lose in a casino.
The casino has a huge advantage that we hardly ever talk about on this forum. They never run out of money. They can afford to wait out all your lucky spells so they can kill you in the down turns. If you have as much money as a casino and can wait them out, you may be able to beat them. For the majority of us, that's not a realistic goal.