Long Term vs. Short Term

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
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onemoretry
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Re: Long Term vs. Short Term

Post by onemoretry »

FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:26 am
We have discussed this issue on this forum numerous times.
Hmmm. Could that be because one particular poster keeps finding a way to return to it, no matter what.

billryan
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Post by billryan »

FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:26 am
We have discussed this issue on this forum numerous times. I say there is no "guarantee" of profit in any video poker strategy. Members ask me where anyone ever said there was? The respondents in this thread clearly believe there is. I say it all depends on when to start and when you quit. Who is right? Does it matter?

Everyone who plays video poker is gambling. Is there anyone who thinks otherwise? If you are gambling for nickels or gambling for $100 dollar bills, it's the same game. You put your money in the machine. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. NO ONE CAN BEAT THE GAME ALL THE TIME. I'm sure we can all agree on that.

If you quit or die ahead of the game, you are a long term winner. If you quit or die a loser, you are a long term loser. No one knows what their lifetime result will be unless they quit or die first.

I am going to the Hard Rock on Monday to play my bonus free play. If I stop by the high limit room shove a $100 bill in a $10 machine and hit a royal flush, I will be a long term winner. Does that prove anything?
No one beats the game all the time, just as no one loses every single time. The average AP will lose more sessions than they win. Here is one of life's ironies- All of life is one long session, and you can expect to lose your short sessions about twice as much you will win, but be ahead lifetime.
Look at it like this. There is a famous gamblers prayer- Dear Lord,Please let me break even today.I really need the money.
A player at South Point who runs a million dollars through their machines and manages to break even will get about $4,000 in cash back plus weekly free play that adds a couple thousand more.

Edited as I added an extra zero

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

This is an important concept to a lot of Recreational video poker players. If everyone who plays negative video poker games knew they were going to lose before they started, would anyone play video poker? The fact that you can win or lose on any given day is what makes the game fun.

Advantage play strategy is a proven way to give a player the best chance at making a long term profit. I acknowledge that. Does it remove ALL risk from playing the game? NO. Video poker simulations have a start and an end. If you stop the simulation at any point in time, the result is unpredictable. Ending your play a long term winner, depends on when you end it. Long term in video poker is an undefinable period of time.

Does this mean anything significant? Not really. Most intelligent players realize they are taking risks when they play video poker. If you want a guarantee of profit, buy a CD for 2% and hope the Government can pay you back.

billryan
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Post by billryan »

Phil,
How many million Royal less hands do you think it would take before Mr.Dancer lost his lifetime edge?
Think of your own lifetime play. Does one Royal change anything? A full-time player can expect 35-50 Royals a year. When you've reached 500 or more, missing a few isn't an issue.

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

billryan wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:33 pm
How many million Royal less hands do you think it would take before Mr.Dancer lost his lifetime edge?
Bill, Mr. Dancer's business IS video poker. Most players don't have his skills, game advantages or knowledge of the Vegas comp game. Few players are Mr. Dancer clones. If you asked Mr. Dancer if he believes he is guaranteed to make a profit playing video poker over the next 10 years, he would say there is no guarantee we will all be here to find out. Professionals know better than anyone that the game can quickly turn on you. They have the financial bankroll and pure guts to weather these inevitable downturns. They know when the odds are in their favor. They know the risks and make a conscious decision to take them.

Recreational players should be aware of the risks involved in gambling. Otherwise they could be financially harmed by counting on something that does not work out as predicted. If I am guilty of repeatedly pointing this out, I'm OK with that. If all we do here is paint a picture of video poker as some kind of "money machine", we are perpetrating a lie.

billryan
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Post by billryan »

I guess we can agree that someone is perpetrating a lie. As I've never read anything here about money machines, I'm guessing this is just yet another variant of your never ending story.

Gronbog
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Post by Gronbog »

FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:36 am
Suppose you are an Advantage Player playing full pay games with generous comps. You hit a bad spell and you are two royals from being a long term winner. You die the day before they happen. You exercised the strategy perfectly. What did you do wrong? You didn't live long enough for "long term" to influence the results in a positive way.
Previously when arguing that there was no guarantee, you spoke about the nature of randomness. You were clearly implying that the act of completing the process did not guarantee the result. That's what I was addressing in my post. What you are saying above is simply that it is possible that the process can be interrupted. This says nothing about the process itself or the validity of the predictions made by the underlying math.

How about we discuss a less complex mathematical process involving randomness? Say you roll a die over and over again. Each roll is random. You can not predict the outcome of each roll. However, the simple math of addition says that in the long run the total of all your rolls will exceed 100,000. This is clearly true. Are you now going to claim that this math or the predicted result is flawed because you might die before you reach that total?

Whenever we talk about the effect of following any process, mathematical or otherwise, of course the assumption is that the process will be completed and of course you won't realize the predicted result if the process is interrupted, tragically or otherwise.
FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:36 am
This theory is flawed because long term is not absolute. It's a variable that may be different for each player.
Once again you repeat this nonsense. I have shown several times here how to calculate the long run for
any game. For those interested and who missed it, search for posts mentioning N-zero.
FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:36 am
If you play video poker for money, you are gambling. Gambling involves risk. Professional gamblers know this and are willing to take those risks. That's why they are gamblers. If there is no risk, there is no reward.
Might it surprise you that there are also formulas for risk of ruin? That's what adequate bankrolling is all about. With adequate bankroll, the risk of ruin can be reduced to zero. Professional gamblers know this and take the steps to make it so.

*****

Finally, apologies for bringing discussion of math into the Recreational Play forum. In my defense, the topic is Long Term vs Short Term which is a mathematical topic and the principles of the math of the long term were being grossly misinterpreted. I couldn't see any way to discuss the issues without talking about the math itself.

Gronbog
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Post by Gronbog »

FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 1:04 pm
If all we do here is paint a picture of video poker as some kind of "money machine", we are perpetrating a lie.
No one here does that and certainly Mr Dancer does not (read Part I, section 8 of VP for the intelligent beginner). All discussions of AP play are peppered with the usual qualifications of, "if you are playing at an advantage" and "if you have adequate bankroll" and "if you are disciplined enough to follow the strategy" and "if you play enough to reach the long term" (which covers the apparent problem of dying too soon) and the simplest advice for those who still believe that they can beat negative situations which is always "you can't --- if your goal is to make money, then don't play them" (note how this is not the same as telling recreational players not to play them which is also not said here).

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

I am not saying computer based video poker strategies don't have value. They obviously do. My VPW software tells me how to gain the best return from each hand I play. I can't play 100% accurately forever, but I do the best I can. Playing according to the computer allows me to get the most for my entertainment dollars. It is a huge leap to assume using the same strategy will produce a long term profit.

There are far too many variables to make that assumption. Will I make an error that costs me a royal? Will I play long enough for math to affect my results? Will the game odds be the same as they were last week? Will they reduce my comps or ban me entirely? Playing in a real casino is not a computer simulation.

Experts tell us very few people make significant money playing video poker. Why? Because the game is played by humans in an ever changing environment. It's not played on a calculator or in a computer lab. This is why everything that happens in video poker is "short term".

Gronbog
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Post by Gronbog »

At this point, my posts have served their purpose of correcting any incorrect information. Your interpretation remains unchanged as does mine. The information is now there for posterity and folks can decide for themselves what to believe.

During the course of the discussion, you have switched your argument from "the result isn't guaranteed because random is random" to "the result isn't guaranteed because the process might be interrupted". I'll take that as progress.

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