Long Term vs. Short Term

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
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FloridaPhil
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Re: Long Term vs. Short Term

Post by FloridaPhil »

Suppose you are an Advantage Player playing full pay games with generous comps. You hit a bad spell and you are two royals from being a long term winner. You die the day before they happen. You exercised the strategy perfectly. What did you do wrong? You didn't live long enough for "long term" to influence the results in a positive way.

This theory is flawed because long term is not absolute. It's a variable that may be different for each player. I have no problem with players who derive confidence from this theory. If it keeps you in the game, that's a good thing. If it works for you, you will tell everyone how great it is. If it doesn't, you will wonder why.

If you play video poker for money, you are gambling. Gambling involves risk. Professional gamblers know this and are willing to take those risks. That's why they are gamblers. If there is no risk, there is no reward.

onemoretry
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Post by onemoretry »

:roll: And off we go down that well travelled road again.

advantage playe
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Post by advantage playe »

hey florida phil I have a hunch that u had some family members at pearl harbor in the 1940 s. just a hunch though, so don't shoot me !!!!!!!!!

Tedlark
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Post by Tedlark »

onemoretry wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:56 am
:roll: And off we go down that well travelled road again.

Yep, gives beaten path a whole new meaning.

Phil completely sidesteps the inaccuracy that both Gronbog and I pointed out, then goes on to dig in further.

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

We have discussed this issue on this forum numerous times. I say there is no "guarantee" of profit in any video poker strategy. Members ask me where anyone ever said there was? The respondents in this thread clearly believe there is. I say it all depends on when to start and when you quit. Who is right? Does it matter?

Everyone who plays video poker is gambling. Is there anyone who thinks otherwise? If you are gambling for nickels or gambling for $100 dollar bills, it's the same game. You put your money in the machine. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. NO ONE CAN BEAT THE GAME ALL THE TIME. I'm sure we can all agree on that.

If you quit or die ahead of the game, you are a long term winner. If you quit or die a loser, you are a long term loser. No one knows what their lifetime result will be unless they quit or die first.

I am going to the Hard Rock on Monday to play my bonus free play. If I stop by the high limit room shove a $100 bill in a $10 machine and hit a royal flush, I will be a long term winner. Does that prove anything?

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

pokerpokerpoker wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:12 pm
I played bacc with some Orientals one time. Quite an elaborate affair they made the game out to be- scribbling notes, looking at the board ect, waiting forever to place a bet. Sometimes I bet with them, sometimes not. But whatever I did, I musta did it wrong because they were always giving me the stink-eye and (I imagine) cussing me out.

Superstitious bunch, I reckon.
Superstitious , and exclusionary. If you happen to be a round-eye that was your problem.
As part of their big show did you notice at least one of them folding the cards in half while looking at their hand? Or tear them in half after a loss?
I never play the game,heavy house edge, but i often watch a high stakes game just for the show.
I certainly do not mind their antics,i actually kind of enjoy the show,and at 10-20-50,000 a hand i guess they are entitled. And with their 5-8% advantage the casino sure loves them.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

I ran in to a guy last nite who is a regular at Tampa Hardrock vp player. Im sure you would eecognize him Phil. He thought Mohegan Sun was one beautiful casino. Tall slim guy about our age. Didnt get his first name. Had all of his hair though. Now that’s rare in itself around here!

advantage playe
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Post by advantage playe »

fl phil u wrote, Does that prove anything ? What r u trying to prove ??

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

I have never been one to watch other people gamble. If someone hits a big jackpot, I will walk by to see what they won. I saw a $23,000 slot jackpot about six months ago, the biggest I have seen so far. I never watch tables games. Craps totally confuses me. It looks exciting, but I don't understand it. I won $5,000 playing Roulette in Reno once. That's been the extent of my table games winnings.

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

advantage playe wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:13 am
fl phil u wrote, Does that prove anything ? What r u trying to prove ??
Nothing. Just making conversation. How about you?

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