Long Term vs. Short Term

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
Post Reply
Tedlark
Video Poker Master
Posts: 7937
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:29 am

Re: Long Term vs. Short Term

Post by Tedlark »

It is stereotyping and degrading.

tech58
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1369
Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2014 1:21 pm

Post by tech58 »

FloridaPhil wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:42 pm
How's this for political correctness?

It has been my observation that table game gamblers are noisier than video poker players. Some table game players yell, slam the table or shout seemingly at every turn of the cards. This activity is not limited to them but does seem common with players who appear to have Southeast Asian heritage. These players are generally small in stature. This is part of the casino experience, so I ignore it. If you are offended by drunks, smokers, cussing, loud talking, shouting, rebel yells or obsessive behavior of any kind, you should stay away from casinos.
The truth, is the truth, is the truth, is the truth.
Four for four that time FP. You've been practicing at home.
However, you missed one. Anyone who has observed a high stakes baccarat game in Vegas has observed players actually and literally destroy the cards,as they. turn them over, or after a loss. The offenders can be easily stereotyped and should be degraded. I will give you a clue. They are definitely shall we say small-of-stature. Is that really more PC ? Not really so lets just go with small.

pokerpokerpoker
VP Veteran
Posts: 542
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2008 12:05 am

Post by pokerpokerpoker »

I played bacc with some Orientals one time. Quite an elaborate affair they made the game out to be- scribbling notes, looking at the board ect, waiting forever to place a bet. Sometimes I bet with them, sometimes not. But whatever I did, I musta did it wrong because they were always giving me the stink-eye and (I imagine) cussing me out.

Superstitious bunch, I reckon.

FloridaPhil
Video Poker Master
Posts: 6229
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am

Post by FloridaPhil »

I don't care if the players are Little Green Men from Mars. Many oriental table game players are loud. No disrespect to Martians. I don't find them obnoxious, they're just noisy. They seem to be having a good time. If I find them distracting, I move. Drunks and smokers bother me more than noisy players.

Tedlark
Video Poker Master
Posts: 7937
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:29 am

Post by Tedlark »

Then why can't you just say that: table game players are loud? Why do you need to specifically narrow it to "little oriental gamblers?" Or you could say: "I find table games to be louder than other gaming areas in a casino."

FloridaPhil
Video Poker Master
Posts: 6229
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am

Post by FloridaPhil »

Tedlark wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 6:24 am
Then why can't you just say that: table game players are loud? Why do you need to specifically narrow it to "little oriental gamblers?" Or you could say: "I find table games to be louder than other gaming areas in a casino."
OK. Some table game players are loud. I find this distracting when I am playing video poker. When I encounter this issue, I move if possible. If the machine I want to play is next to the table games and I have no other choice, I stay and put up with it.

OTABILL
Video Poker Master
Posts: 2438
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 5:22 pm

Post by OTABILL »

This topic is a perfect example of how a promising discussion on something that impacts recreational VP players goes south. Blackjack has become the main focus, not short/long term as it relates to recreational VP.

FloridaPhil
Video Poker Master
Posts: 6229
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am

Post by FloridaPhil »

OTABILL wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:02 am
This topic is a perfect example of how a promising discussion on something that impacts recreational VP players goes south. Blackjack has become the main focus, not short/long term as it relates to recreational VP.
OK, how's this?

I do not subscribe to the theory of long term video poker profit and I'll tell you why. Video poker is a game where the majority of the return is gained from a very few rare hands. An edge, if there is one, is very small. One royal flush can make the difference between long term losing and winning. There is no math that guarantees you will be the recipient of a royal flush now or ever. This is like gambling that a player will hit a grand slam in a world series game.

Advantage players believe having a mathematical edge on the house gives them an opportunity to profit from the game. I believe that is true. What this does is allow them to play more hands with the same money giving them more chances of hitting a jackpot. Nothing they can physically do can force the machine to produce a jackpot. Random is random. Some skilled players will lose and some will win. Playing the best games perfectly is the best strategy we have. It is not and never will be a guarantee of profit.

Tedlark
Video Poker Master
Posts: 7937
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:29 am

Post by Tedlark »

FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:14 am
OTABILL wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:02 am
This topic is a perfect example of how a promising discussion on something that impacts recreational VP players goes south. Blackjack has become the main focus, not short/long term as it relates to recreational VP.
OK, how's this?

I do not subscribe to the theory of long term video poker profit and I'll tell you why. Video poker is a game where the majority of the return is gained from a very few rare hands.
Phil are you sure this is accurate?

Gronbog
Senior Member
Posts: 267
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:59 pm

Post by Gronbog »

First let me apologize to anyone who feels that this thread was hijacked by discussion of blackjack. Specific questions were asked which I was able to answer and, if fact, it was the originator of this thread who first asked about blackjack. Perhaps I should have started another thread.

The purpose of this post is to comment on incorrect information in FP's most recent post. Everyone is entitled to their opinions, but it does no one any good to have incorrect facts go uncorrected, especially when the opinions being expressed are based on those falsehoods.
FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:14 am
I do not subscribe to the theory of long term video poker profit and I'll tell you why. Video poker is a game where the majority of the return is gained from a very few rare hands.
Not true, and I'm surprised that you don't know this, since I know you have the VPW software.

If you load 9/6 JoB and then select analyse -> game, you will see the contributions that the various hands make to the total return. You will see that it is 2 pair, 3 of a kind and Jacks or Better, three of the most common hands, which contribute over 68% of the 99.544% return. Quads, straight flush and royal flush contribute less than 9%.
FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:14 am
An edge, if there is one, is very small. One royal flush can make the difference between long term losing and winning.
True in the short term, but not in the long term. If you are only one royal away from being ahead on a negative game, then you have not yet reached the long term. On 9/6 Job, one royal is worth only 1.98% of your total coin in.
FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:14 am
There is no math that guarantees you will be the recipient of a royal flush now or ever. This is like gambling that a player will hit a grand slam in a world series game.
The same math shows no guarantee that you will ever flip "heads" on a fair coin, but in reality, you know that it will happen. This is a concept that often trips up non-math folks. Yes, in the most technical sense, the odds of never flipping heads is not zero, but it is so close to being zero in the most infinitesimal way that you should treat it as zero. The very same applies to hitting a grand slam in a world series game (has happened many times) to pitching a perfect game in the world series (much more rare, but has happened) or hitting a royal. If you play enough, it will happen, and anyone who enjoys VP enough to participate regularly on an online forum plays enough to make this happen.
FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:14 am
Advantage players believe having a mathematical edge on the house gives them an opportunity to profit from the game. I believe that is true. What this does is allow them to play more hands with the same money giving them more chances of hitting a jackpot. Nothing they can physically do can force the machine to produce a jackpot. Random is random.
This is where you go wrong with your thinking which leads you to your incorrect conclusion.

Random is random, but in the long term, it is mathematically structured and predictable. You can't hit jackpot hands on cue, but over time, the number you hit will be within an extremely small range of what is predicted. At that time, someone playing at an advantage will be far enough in the black that being short by a few royals will not be enough to put them back into the red.
FloridaPhil wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:14 am
Some skilled players will lose and some will win. Playing the best games perfectly is the best strategy we have. It is not and never will be a guarantee of profit.
Some skilled players will still lose, but not because the math predicts it, but because they fail to execute the strategy. They go on tilt, they take pot shots, they play in situations where they don't have an advantage, they are are under bankrolled (yes, being properly bankrolled is part of the strategy!)

One thing that you like to repeat is that you have to play computer perfectly in order to succeed as an AP. This is not true. You are correct that no one plays perfectly, but you don't need to do that. You only need to play well enough that the cost of your errors does not exceed your advantage. I know many APs. I don't know any that are losing due to bad luck against the math.

Post Reply