Long Term vs. Short Term

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
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FloridaPhil
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Long Term vs. Short Term

Post by FloridaPhil »

I first started playing video poker in the late nineties. I had never been to many casinos before that. My wife and I had a friend who traveled a lot for business. He always stopped in Biloxi to gamble. He told us about the Beau Rivage and it sounded like a nice place to visit. We asked him what game we should play? He told us to play video poker. He said Jacks or Better was a good game for beginners. We didn't know anything about the game. He thought all you did was hold the Jacks. We went to Biloxi and stayed at the old Casino Magic. At that time the Beau Rivage seemed like a crystal palace. We played the game and we enjoyed the experience. After that, we made a trip to Vegas and stayed at the MGM. On the night before we flew back, I hit my first royal flush.

Upon our return, I bought all the video poker books I could find. I read about game odds and computer play. I read how professionals played the game and the huge swings they had to endure. I read about building a bankroll and managing money. As usual, whenever I got into a hobby I jumped in with both feet. At the time I was playing dollar Jacks. The odds were 7/5 but I didn't know you weren't suppose to play that game.

Back then, I would take $3,000 with me to Biloxi. This would normally last me through a three day trip. One trip, I started paying around three in the afternoon. I hit a royal flush for $4,000. Thirty minutes later, I hit another one for $4,000. Just for fun, I gave my wife $100 and told her to go into the high limit room and take a pot shot on a $5 video poker game. She returned about 15 minutes later with $700 in her hand. The following morning, we went over to the Golden Nugget. I decided to switch to quarters so I could go home with the money I had won. Sure enough, 20 minutes later I hit a third royal for $1,000. I switched back to dollars and hit my forth royal for $4,000. On the drive home, we thought we had found a gold mine. All we had to do was go to Biloxi and clean up.

Our many return trips didn't go that well. It actually took about a year for the casino to take back all our winnings from that trip. They showered us with gifts. We stayed in suites and ate in the best restaurants for free. Other casinos sent us offers too. Eventually, our losses started to build up. A game that started out as fun turned into a burden. Once we got behind, we felt the need to recover our losses. This made things even worse. The cycle of winning and losing was like being on a tread mill that costs a thousand dollars a hour to run on. Eventually, we got the message. Anyone can get lucky playing video poker. The danger comes when you believe you can control your luck.

We made some decisions that got things back under control. First, we concluded that whatever we lost was gone forever. Recovering losses was out of the question. Every trip was a new opportunity to win or lose. Second, we realized the casino was going to win long term. The odds were on their side and they never run out of money. If someone was going to consistently beat the casino, it wasn't going to be us. To limit our cost, we switched to quarter play. We changed our goal from long term to short term results. My wife has a great strategy along these lines. If she is losing, she goes shopping. She says this works for her because in the end she gets something for her money other than memories.

My strategy is to use low cash out limits. This doesn't help my eventual results, but it helps me manage my money. It slows me down on bad days and makes me think before I do something I will regret later. Video poker still costs us money to play, but it's manageable. Our combined Biloxi three day bankroll is $1,000 and we rarely use it all. Our cost to play without comps is well under $5,000 a year. Throw in all the free rooms, drinks and coffee shop food and it's a fairly cheap family activity. Our biggest cost is travel. We would have travel expenses if we were visiting National Parks instead of casinos.

We like to combine travel with video poker. These trips have taken us all over the country. This summer we are flying to Seattle and driving down to Albuquerque. We will visit Glacier National Park, Yellowstone and the Grand Tetons. We are spending two days playing video poker in Black Hawk Colorado, one of our favorites. We will drive along side 14,000 foot mountains on our way to Cripple Creek. We are looking forward to this trip. We are not expecting to win money, but you never know.

advantage playe
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Post by advantage playe »

great video poker biography phil.2nd only to your witness to your Christian faith !!! I am Catholic myself. thank GOD for his great mercy, our only hope !!! happy palm sunday to you and family and everyone !!!

onemoretry
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Post by onemoretry »

That's not quite what I expected to read, given the title. Good post, though. Your long term view pretty much mirrors ours. Fortunately for us, it did not take a plunge deep into negative territory to learn how to approach the game.

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

Thanks for the encouragement. Video poker can teach us a lot about life. We humans like to think we have everything figured out. Do this or do that and good things will happen. When they do, we are first to take all the credit. Then one day things don't work as predicted. Long term turns into short term and we find we don't have enough time left to hit the last royal flush that would have made us a lifetime winner.

I don't take anything that happens in video poker too seriously. Anything that can happen will happen. Everything works until it doesn't. When I win, I am happy. Win I lose, I am happy that I didn't lose more. This will never make me rich gambler and that's fine with me.

Tedlark
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Post by Tedlark »

onemoretry wrote:
Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:39 am
That's not quite what I expected to read, given the title.
I agree. This post was written as if Phil is running for office: said a whole lot but lacked substance and didn't answer many questions.

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

Excellent post FP. If the truth be known most of the cast of characters on this Forum could spin a similar tale. The sequence of events would be different, random, and unpredictable. But the mixture of agony and ecstasy would be there.
My personal saga starts out with a bang, just like yours. A couple years of fumbling around and learning a game or two, then in 2014 i hit a $1 progressive royal for $9587.76 (will never forget that number).
Two years of ups down left me apx. $8000 ahead and i began to keep dead accurate track of each session.
Then in the first quarter of 2016 i hit two $20,000 royals (chasing losses both times). Obviously chasing or steaming as some call it, is a great strategy......WHEN IT WORKS! Not so great when it doesn't.Which is most of the time.
The last two years i have given back half of that bankroll, again not without many ups between downs.
Last year alone i had 37 hand-pays , 15 of which were royals. So, as you can imagine , it took many losing sessions to p..s away half . Mostly self-inflicted wounds BTW.
This year,even, so far, with 5 hand -pays. BTW i don't post photo's because i am one of the last seven people in America who doesn't carry a phone. I own an emergency phone but it stays in my 4-Runner.
Last year late i spent a lot of time reading posts on this Forum. Trying to learn a thing or two from other Pilgrims.
Partial list of things would include: * Limited bankroll for a session.
* NO ATM CARDS!!!
* No alcohol.
* Take the wins when they come.
* Addendum to previous point, wins are not a lock until your
out the door.
* Addendum to addendum ,sometimes not even then!
* Expending session bankroll is not REQUIRED before giving up
on a losing session. Saving some bullets for the next battle is
OK, and not an act of cowardice in the face of the enemy.
* Too all newbies like me a summary might say:
Learn what smart is and try to play that way.
Add to this list. Grow in the game.
The casino is not your friend. They hate hit-and-run.
They want you to hold still while they grind away
at your wallet.

Others on this Forum have vastly more experience and knowledge than i do and could add to this thread. And i hope they do.

One closing quote may add something. I learned this 40 Years ago in my early days as a Blackjack junketeer. A veteran that i met saw, after a few trips,that i kept coming back. Unlike a lot of young flash-in-the-pan hotshots. We talked about strategy and bankroll preservation and hard learned lessons he had learned which he summed up with this quote: "Gambling is not a game between you and the casino. It's a game between you and that little man inside of you who wants it ALL. Not just all the money. But the drapes and the chandeliers too."

My tale is a work-in-progress. As yours will be. Although the points and the quote above, and hopefully some to follow, are easy to understand, they are not easy to follow.
But some other basics are easy to follow . Play the best games you can find, at max coin-in with as perfect Strategy as you can.

Sorry about the wordy post. Following the Master at that is catching i guess. [space for smilie which i still don't know how to do despite repeated requests for help].
BTW that friendly-fire well-intended joke in that last sentence is the lower limit for me on this Forum from now on to the best of my ability. No more cannon fire shot or accepted. Anyone else willing to try to create a positive, no-vitriol, learning, and sharing zone? Please testify.
Edited after reading teds post above to add this: No comment.

Tedlark
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Post by Tedlark »

tech58, if you have followed Phil's posts at all over the last several years you'll see that he has written about his 4 royal trip many times before. The only new information contained in his opening post here is the last paragraph of it where he spells out future travel plans.

I was not the only one disappointed to see what Phil wrote had little or nothing to do with long term play vs. short term play and instead it just turned out to be another speech. I was going to use the term oratory but that would have given too much credit.

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

I created this post as there may be a few members who haven't heard it before. I was also attempting to change the subject and move the Recreational Forum back to VP where it belongs. There is nothing new in my thinking. If you have won more than you lost playing video poker, you either haven't played very long or are doing something right. I do not believe anyone who plays positive games perfectly is owed a long term profit. I believe doing those things makes it more likely. Chance or luck as some people describe it has more to do with your results than some experts will admit.

At one time, this forum discussed the winning percentage attributed to skill and the percentage due to being at the right place at the right time. One expert wrote in a book that all royals have some luck involved. If that's true and royals make up at least 1% of your return, then luck plays a part in all long term wins. This does not minimize what the experts are doing or make it any less likely they will win. They know the risks. New players to the game may not realize this. They may conclude there is no risk involved. As long as there is risk, VP is gambling. Those that think it's harvesting crops may be in for a rude awakening.

FAA
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Post by FAA »

That first month after a RF, you may be lulled into complacency. Gold mine awaits. I am regrouping; back to basics. Low roll and leave the casino for three hours. I wish I would have played four hands of dollar today. -$29.

billryan
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Post by billryan »

Short term- anything can happen. Any one session is 80% luck, with neither your skill or your game choice much of a factor.
Long term- Your game choice and skill makes luck the non factor it is. Play inferior games and you should expect negative results. Play superior games and you can expect positive results.
Players clubs rewards and promotions can add up quickly and should be a consideration in choosing when and where to play.

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